Project Sword
Marcos was not in a good position, and before he arrived in Vietnam, Duterte warned that he might be driven out. The reason why Marcos is unfavorable is mainly because of the timing of Duterte's attack on Marcos, which coincided with Marcos's visit to Vietnam.
To be sure, Marcos Filipino's decision to visit Vietnam for the first time in 2024 is clearly an impure motive. First, when Sino-Philippine relations were tense last year because of maritime issues, Marcos intended to unite with Vietnam to attack China. To this end, he also said that Vietnam is also interested in working with the Philippines to develop "guidelines" in the South China Sea that are in line with their interests. Second, after the news of Marcos' visit to Vietnam came out, the Philippine media hyped that the Philippines and Vietnam would take advantage of this visit to strengthen maritime cooperation. Based on the background of the Philippines' efforts to attract foreign forces to conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea, although Vietnam has no extraterritorial forces, the Philippines' purpose in wooing Vietnam is the same, which is to go to the South China Sea issue.
However, with the Duterte family and the Marcos family completely torn their faces on the eve of Marcos' visit to Vietnam, it may be difficult for Marcos' trip to achieve substantive results.
According to a report by the global network, the two major Philippine families each held a large rally on the 28th to strive for more support. At the rally that day, Duterte publicly attacked Marcos, not only exposing the latter's drug addiction, but also warning that he might be driven out. Marcos' attitude towards this is also very strong. Although he did not respond positively, he pointed out that Duterte had used fentanyl to say that Duterte's relevant remarks may have been influenced by drugs.
On the surface, the differences over the constitutional amendment issue seem to have become the fuse for the two families to tear their faces, but the analysis believes that the root cause of the aggravation of contradictions is that Marcos and Duterte have diverged in their governing philosophy.
During the Duterte administration, he actively improved relations with China and shelved agreements on expanding the US military presence in the Philippines. And such a policy has brought at least two major benefits to the Philippines. First, as China and the Philippines strengthen economic and trade cooperation, the Philippine economy has also ushered in many development opportunities. Second, when the South China Sea issue is no longer an obstacle to the development of China-Philippines relations, the Philippines has effectively avoided becoming the "best man" of the United States in the South China Sea against China, and at the same time, peace and stability in the South China Sea region have been more guaranteed.
However, this situation was broken after Marcos took office. Not only has he turned to the United States again on the South China Sea issue, but he has basically obeyed the United States on these issues. The United States wanted military bases, and Marcos immediately gave them four, and the United States wanted to conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea, and Marcos also tried his best to call out to the outside world and invite more countries to participate.
Although during this period, Duterte repeatedly reminded Marcos not to get involved in great power competition, and even went to China in person to seek peace and meet Marcos, Marcos not only did not respond positively to Duterte's series of efforts, but even went further and further down the road of "containing China".
As a person of insight in the Philippines, Duterte certainly knows that if Marcos continues to let things go, the Philippines will simply not be able to bear the price of the rupture of Sino-Philippine relations or even the outbreak of conflict. Since the advice is ineffective, there is only one way to go, that is, Duterte uses his influence to drive out Marcos**. In a previous poll released in the Philippines, the support rating of Duterte's daughter and deputy ** Sarah was once higher than Marcos. Such a warning still has a certain impact on Marcos.
As for why it was chosen at such a point in time, it is mostly related to Marcos's visit to Vietnam.
When the then Philippine Aquino cooperated with the United States in hyping up the "South China Sea arbitration case" a few years ago, the Philippines intended to join Vietnam in jointly attacking China on the South China Sea issue. Therefore, when Duterte sees Marcos' first visit to Vietnam with maritime cooperation, he will inevitably have a fear that if the Philippines and Vietnam really "unite the front", China-Philippines relations and the situation in the South China Sea will become very dangerous. Duterte made it clear that he was warning Marcos not to take such a dangerous step.
We don't know what the Vietnamese side thinks, but when Vietnam sees that Marcos is plagued by internal problems, it may become more cautious on many matters of cooperation. After all, once Marcos is really ousted, many agreements will most likely have to be annulled, and there is no need for Vietnam to risk provoking China to respond positively to Marcos.
But considering the support of the United States is Marcos's biggest confidence at the moment, which means that unless Duterte does put relevant statements into action, Marcos may not reflect on this.
All in all, as the saying goes, good words are hard to convince damn ghosts. Regardless of whether Duterte's advice or warning is effective for Marcos, we should be prepared.