The S&P temporarily left its all-time high, the Nasdaq fell to a two-year high, and the Dow hit a record high for four consecutive days. Ming-Chi Kuo expects iPhone shipments to drop sharply this year, with Apple closing down nearly 2%.。Microsoft hit an all-time high in the market and then turned down, rising more than 1% after the earnings report, and then turning down. Google fell to all-time highsIt fell more than 5% after the earnings report。The chip stock index retreated, and Nvidia hit a record highAMD fell more than 6% after the earnings report。After the earnings report, General Motors closed up nearly 8%, and UPS fell more than 8%. The pan-European stock index hit a two-year high on the third consecutive day, and French stocks closed at a record high.
After the announcement that U.S. job vacancies were increasing instead of falling, the yield on the 10-year Treasury quickly fell off a two-week lowAt one point, it was 410%, and then turned down. The U.S. dollar index once erased the day's losses and turned up, refreshing the daily high.
***, which rose more than 2% intraday, gave up most of the gains and still closed at a two-week high. **Intraday fell more than 1% before turning higher, close to a two-month high. London copper rose twice in a row to a one-month high.
In the Chinese market, the U.S. stock market session,The China Concept Stock Index fell more than 2%., four consecutive falls, NIO fell nearly 6%, and Station B fell more than 4%; The offshore yuan is close to 7After 18, it fell back by more than 100 points. Stocks fell and bonds rose, the A-share gem fell below 1,600 points, the three major indexes all closed down more than 1%, and Hong Kong stocks opened lower and went lowerTreasuries** continue to strengthen
Shanghai relaxes purchase restrictionsSuzhou has completely lifted the housing purchase restrictionsU.S. stocks: The Dow rose 035%, and the S&P 500 fell 006%, Nasdaq fell 076%。State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration CommissionOptimize the asset appraisal and management of central enterprisesFor the first time, it is proposed that ** enterprises should implement classified management of asset appraisal projects, and clarify eight types of non-appraisal situations.
bytesCEO Liang Rubo made an internal speechThe "sense of crisis" is mentioned several times, in 2024 to "escape the gravity of mediocrity".
CATLLast year's net profit is expectedA year-on-year increase of more than 30%.China ShenhuaProfit pre-profitDrop 99%-14%Muyuan sharesExpectedThe net loss was 3.9-4.7 billion yuan, with a profit of more than 13.2 billion yuan in 2022.
December in the United StatesJolts job openings unexpectedly hit a three-month high, breaking through 9 million,The number of voluntary departures is the lowest in nearly three years
Eurozone GDPMixed blessings,Germany narrowly avoided a recessionItaly and Spain have strong figures
MicrosoftThe financial report in the fourth quarter of last year exceeded expectations, and cloud growth needs to be acceleratedIt fell more than 2% after hoursGoogleRevenue and profit exceeded expectations, butAdvertising revenue fell short of expectationsIt fell more than 5% after hoursamdQ1Guidance fell short of expectations, AI chips are clouded,Shares fell 6% in after-hours trading
I know bestApplesAnalysts "poured cold water before the earnings report:iPhone shipments this year are expected to fall by 15% year-on-year
European stocks: Europe's STOXX 600 index closed up 016%。Germany's DAX 30 index closed up 018%。France's CAC 40 index closed up 048%。Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 044%。
A shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 283053 points, down 183%。The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 837598 points, down 240%。The GEM index closed at 158377 points, down 247%。
Bond market: The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond**173 basis points at 40567%。The two-year Treasury yield rose 392 basis points at 43572%。
commodity: WTI closed up 1 in March04 US dollars, up 135% to 77$82 barrel. Brent closed up 0$47, up 053% to 82$87 barrel. COMEX closed up 031% at 2050$90 oz. London copper closed up more than 066%。
Domestic macro
Li Qiang: Manufacturing enterprises should be willing to spend money on R&D investment. Li Qiang stressed that manufacturing enterprises to gain a firm foothold in the fierce market competition, must be willing to invest in research and development, and hope that enterprises will strive to form their own characteristics and advantages in technology, and achieve leapfrog development in catching up with the world-class level. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) optimizes the asset appraisal management of central enterprisesFirst proposed**Enterprises should implement classified management of asset appraisal projects, and clarify eight types of circumstances that can not be assessed. **State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) issued the Notice on Matters Concerning the Optimization of Enterprise Asset Appraisal Management. The "Notice" pointed out that in line with the relevant provisions of state-owned assets supervision, the transfer of equity and assets free of charge; Institutions that perform the duties of investors increase or reduce capital of wholly state-owned and wholly-owned enterprises; Eight categories, such as transactions between wholly state-owned enterprises and wholly state-owned enterprises, may not be evaluated for the relevant targets. State Administration of Financial Supervision: Intensify the disposal of non-performing assets and accelerate the implementation of the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing. The meeting demanded that the implementation of the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing should be accelerated, and financial institutions should be urged to vigorously support the construction of the "three major projects" such as affordable housing; Steadily expand institutional opening-up and contribute to the development of Shanghai and Hong Kong as international financial centers. Shanghai relaxes purchase restrictionsShanghai stipulates that from January 31, non-residents with household registration who have paid social insurance or individual income tax for five consecutive years or more in Shanghai can purchase one house in areas outside the outer ring (except Chongming District), so as to better meet the reasonable housing needs of residents and promote regional job-housing balance and industry-city integration. Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said that there are three key points in this policy. The first is to cancel the purchase restriction for singles who are not registered in the city. The second is to clearly optimize the scope of the purchase restriction area. Third, the policy of housing purchase for better talents will continue to be implemented. SuzhouFull cancellationHousing purchase is restricted, and new houses are still restricted for two years. Boosted by easing expectations, China's bond market rose sharply throughout the term; CITIC: The real interest rate is high, and the LPR should be reduced by at least 40bp. On Tuesday, the 30-year Treasury bond** continued to break record highs. CITIC** expects that there may still be interest rate cuts in February. If real interest rates are to fall to the desired level within the year, the central bank may need to guide the LPR down by at least 40bp. Domestic companies
CATL, China Shenhua, Muyuan and many other A-share giants announced their annual results. CATL expects net profit last year to be year-on-yearAn increase of more than 30%., China Shenhua profit preDrop 99%-14%Due to the impact of coal on performance, the low price of pigs has caused most listed pig companies to report losses in 2023, and Muyuan shares are expectedThe net loss was 3.9-4.7 billion yuan, with a profit of more than 13.2 billion yuan in 2022. Byte CEO Liang Rubo spoke internally,The "sense of crisis" is mentioned several times, in 2024 to "escape the gravity of mediocrity". Wuliangye's price increase is expected to land, and the price increase of 50 yuan per bottle is confirmed. China Securities Regulatory Commission: *ST Zuojiang is suspected of major financial fraud. *There is suspense behind ST Zuojiang's huge contract, and the project with an announcement of an investment of more than one billion yuan was still overgrown at the end of last year, and there is no sign of construction on the ground. Last year, *ST Zuojiang created the myth of the most expensive ST stock in history with an astonishing increase. Overseas macro
In the United States, JOLTS job openings unexpectedly hit a three-month high in December, exceeding 9 million, and the number of voluntary departures was the lowest in nearly three years. According to the analysis, the report highlights that the labor market is gradually slowing and that the slowdown has been a bit bumpy. While the increase in job openings indicates that the labor market is robust, bringing the U.S. economy out of recessionBut the decline in the number of voluntary resignations suggests that workers are increasingly sticking to their current jobs. The IMF raised its 2024 global growth** to 31%, saying the chances of a hard landing for the economy have decreased. Despite the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East that has brought new risks such as surging commodities and chain issues, the likelihood of a hard landing for the global economy has diminished, with the world's major economies performing better than expected. Eurozone GDP was mixed, Germany narrowly avoided a recession, and Italy and Spain showed bright data. Overall economic growth in the eurozone stagnated in the fourth quarter, and performance diverged across countries。Lokomotiv Germany showed negative growth in the fourth quarter as expected, but revised up the GDP data for the third quarter, so it was able to survive a recession; The French economy is in stagnation; However, growth in Italy and Spain exceeded expectations. ECB President Lagarde: Trump 20 could mean "bad" tariff action for Europe. Lagarde warned again this month of the threat of Trump's electionHe said that the best way for Europe to respond is to strengthen the single market, and that the EU's financial markets should make it easier for small companies to raise funds. She reiterated her call earlier this month for Europe to be strong on its home turf. Overseas companies
Microsoft's fourth-quarter earnings report exceeded expectations last year, and cloud growth still needs to be accelerated, falling more than 2% after hours. Microsoft achieved the best quarterly revenue growth in nearly two years and hit a record revenue for five consecutive quartersCore indicators such as EPS and intelligent cloud business also exceeded expectations, and artificial intelligence drove Azure cloud revenue growth of 6%, contributing more than the previous quarterBut the growth may not be satisfactory。Wall Street is still full of confidence in Microsoft, and the revenue growth brought by AI in the second half of the year may accelerate. Google's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, but advertising revenue fell short of expectations, falling more than 5% after hours. Google's parent company, Alphabet, beat expectations in revenue and profit in the fourth quarterHowever, its main business search revenue fell short of expectations, showing that the search business is under pressure under the sudden onslaught of AI technology. AMD's first-quarter guidance fell short of expectations, and its AI chips were overshadowed, and its stock price fell 6% after hours. AMD's fourth-quarter revenue beat analysts' expectationsHowever, the first-quarter guidance fell short of expectations. "The analyst who knows Apple best" poured cold water before the earnings report: this year's iPhone shipments are estimated to fall by 15% year-on-year. Ming-Chi Kuo said that this year, among the world's major mobile phone brands,Apple may have declined the most。The iPhone faces structural challenges. In recent weeks, Apple's weekly shipments in the Chinese market have fallen by about 30-40% year-on-yearThis downward trend is expected to continue. Apple fell about 2% on Tuesday. The biggest update in the history of Apple's iOS is coming, and Siri is about to launch a large model. Developers have found in the new version of iOS** that Apple is testing the introduction of large models into its products. **Apple will launch iOS 18 with heavy AI features in WWDC in June this year, and some analysts regard iOS 18 as one of the biggest iOS updates in Apple's historyEven the biggest update。Musk's $55 billion Tesla compensation package was overturned by a judge, and he could fall to third place on the world's richest list.
Saudi Arabia made an unexpected turn to cancel Saudi Aramco's expansion planThe oil service stock is full of mourning；Saudi Aramco: Saudi Arabia** asked not to further increase oil production capacity. Some European oil service stocks fell more than 10%, and the U.S. oil service industry index fell more than 5% intraday, the biggest decline in nearly four months. Earlier, Saudi Aramco said that Saudi Arabia** asked the company not to increase production capacity to 13 million barrels per day, but to maintain it at the current 12 million barrels per day. In the wave of electrification, Toyota holds the top spot in salesSales reached a new high。In 2023, Toyota's sales increased by 7% year-on-year2% to 11.2 million units, with production up 8% y/y6% to 11.5 million units, both set a record, and the world's largest automaker for four consecutive years. 1、Brain Science|According to reports, on January 29, Musk said on social media that his brain-computer interface company Neuralink has completed the first human brain device implantation surgery. According to Musk, Neuralink's first product is called Telepathy. Once implanted, you can control your phone or computer with just your mind, and you can control almost any device through them.
Comments: The success of this operation will help further promote the application of this technology in the fields of medical treatment and communications. Musk said that the plan for the next five years is to allow humans to communicate directly through their brains without using language. In the future, people's consciousness can be uploaded to a cloud space with the help of brain-computer interfaces, and finally realize the "immortality of consciousness" of human beings. Not only Musk's company, but also giants at home and abroad such as Huawei, Google, and Meta have laid out in this field. Brain-computer interface is essentially a way of interaction, and it is expected to become the next generation of human-computer interaction technology, replacing or partially replacing keyboard and mouse, touch screen, motion capture, VR equipment, etc. At the same time, with the continuous development of the metaverse and the continuous exploration of brain science in the future, brain-computer interface may become the entrance to the next generation of the metaverse after VR and AR.
Solid-state batteries|According to reports, on January 28, the first large-capacity and high-energy-density nano-solid-state sodium-ion battery pilot product rolled off the production line of the nano-scale solid-state battery pilot production line of the Nikola Science and Technology Industry Research Institute in Tongnan High-tech Zone, Chongqing. According to reports, the battery is based on the high-performance positive and negative electrode materials independently developed by Nikola Science and Technology Industry Research Institute, combined with advanced technologies such as nano-modification of the anode surface, low-temperature electrolyte formula and in-situ curing of electrolyte, the battery energy density reaches 160-180 Wh kg, which is equivalent to that of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and is known as "at the leading level in China".
Comments: The raw materials of sodium-ion batteries are abundant, and after large-scale production, the cost will be reduced to less than 50% of that of lithium-ion batteries, and it has significant advantages in terms of safety, and has good application prospects in new energy storage. SNE Research, a market research agency, released a report saying that China's sodium-ion batteries will be officially put into mass production in 2025, mainly used for two-wheeled vehicles, small electric vehicles and energy storage devices. It is estimated that by 2035, sodium-ion batteries** will be 11% to 24% lower than lithium iron phosphate batteries**, and the market size will reach $14.2 billion per year.
5.5g|Recently, China Mobile Hubei and Huawei completed the continuous opening of 5G-Advanced (5G-A) three-carrier aggregation sites in the Jianghan Road business district of Wuhan City, realizing continuous coverage of 5G-A 3CC sites in hotspots along the Jianghan Road subway station and Xunlimen Square, and successfully building the first 5G-A 3CC pioneer demonstration area in central China. After the actual measurement of the live network, the downlink rate of the user reaches 405Gbps, officially opening a new era of 5G-A in Hubei. It is worth noting that 5G-A has recently accelerated in China, after Huawei has completed coverage of key scenarios in Beijing and other regions.
Comments: 5G-A is also known as 55G, which is an advanced version of 5G. As a transitional stage between 5G and 6G, 55G (5G-A) adds three new application features: UCBC (uplink ultra-wideband), RTBC (broadband real-time interaction), and HCS (communication perception fusion), which can achieve a downlink rate of 10Gbps and an uplink rate of 1Gbps, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of RedCap, NBIOT, and passive IoT technologies, promote industry digitalization, and open the era of 100 billion yuan. Huawei previously said that 2024 is 5In the first year of 5G commercialization, operators, industry chains, equipment, and standards will mature in 2024. With the continuous breakthrough of technology, 55G is expected to accelerate and integrate into more scenarios, and industry chain companies are expected to benefit.
Low-altitude economy|On January 29, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of Future Industries", which clearly planned and deployed six new tracks: future manufacturing, future information, future materials, future energy, future space and future health, and accelerated the formation of new quality productivity. The new track of future space mentions focusing on the aerospace field and developing high-end equipment such as unmanned systems and advanced and efficient aircraft. Advanced and efficient aviation equipment emphasizes the development and application of electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (EVTOL) and intelligent and efficient aviation logistics equipment around the needs of future intelligent air mobility. After the low-altitude economy was highlighted in the ** work conference in December 2023, national ministries and commissions and a number of provinces and cities introduced support policies to vigorously develop the low-altitude economy.
Comments: In December last year, EHang obtained the world's first standard airworthiness certificate issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, and is qualified to start manned commercial operations. With the successive implementation of airworthiness certificates of other EVTOL brands, it is expected to lay the foundation for EVTOL to fully enter the commercial market. In A-shares, we can focus on infrastructure, applications and aircraft, as well as low-altitude economic applications.
Environmentally friendly|The Ministry of Ecology and Environment said on January 30 that building a beautiful China is a long-term and arduous strategic task and systematic project, which needs to be systematically promoted in stages and plans. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, in conjunction with relevant departments, will accelerate the establishment of an implementation system and implementation mechanism for the construction of a Beautiful China, accelerate work scheduling, and strengthen tracking and assessment; Research and formulate the evaluation index system and assessment methods for the effectiveness of the construction of Beautiful China, and ensure the smooth transition and orderly connection between the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the effectiveness assessment of pollution prevention and control. On August 24, 2023, ** and other departments issued the "Notice on Making Up for the Shortcomings of Public Health and Environmental Facilities and Carrying out Urban and Rural Environmental Sanitation Cleanup and Remediation", proposing to promote the experience and practices of Zhejiang's "Ten Million Project".
Comments: Guotai Junan [601211ss、02611.HKEx] Research Institute said that the "Ten Million Project" has comprehensively promoted rural revitalization to explore and demonstrate successful ways and mechanisms, which is expected to drive rural revitalization construction into a new situation. The project focuses on the shortcomings and weaknesses of agricultural and rural infrastructure, and proposes to focus on the rural toilet revolution, domestic sewage and garbage treatment, black and odorous water body remediation, and the improvement of village appearance to comprehensively improve the quality of rural living environment, which is expected to stimulate investment demand in the fields of township water supply and drainage, garbage treatment, etc.
Liquor|Wuliangye decided to raise the ex-factory price of its core product eighth-generation Wuliangye by 50 yuan to 1,019 yuan bottles from February 5, which is another price increase after 2021. Industry insiders said that this will lead the strong flavor liquor camp and the ex-factory price of the main products of the Sichuan liquor sector to enter the era of 1,000 yuan for the first time, and boost the confidence of the industrial chain and the capital market.
Comments: Open Source ** believes that the current liquor companies have entered the stage of Spring Festival stocking, and the liquor companies will collect and deliver goods according to the rhythm. The pre-holiday business demand has been partially reflected, and business gifts and banquets are better than the same period; Mass consumption still needs to be verified by the approaching holidays. It is expected that the overall Spring Festival sales will be basically similar to that in 2023. Recently, some wine companies have raised their ex-factory prices, more to prepare for the Spring Festival payment, and strive to achieve a good start in the first quarter. In 2024, recovery will still be the main logic of the consumption track.
China's official manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI for January.
Hong Kong's Q4 GDP.
Fed's FOMC interest rate decision, Powell speaking.
Change in ADP employment in the United States in January.
Novo Nordisk, MasterCard,QualcommBoeingAnnouncement of financial results.
Germany, France CPI in January.
Changes in US EIA** inventories last week.
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