When I went back to my hometown in the north for the New Year on New Year's Day, I took a ride on the Xpeng P5, and when I chatted on the road, I found that the domestic auto market had unconsciously changed dramatically.
We can no longer look at the domestic automobile industry from a traditional perspective.
The hitchhiker told me that he used to like to play with cars, and often drove traditional luxury cars such as Porsche and BMW, which had a good appearance and high horsepower.
However, he has not driven this kind of "deep-pocketed" oil truck for a long time now; In the middle, he also tried to replace BMW's electric car with BMW's petrol car, but he was not used to driving.
He went around in circles, but he still felt that domestic new energy vehicles better understood the operating habits of users, and it was not troublesome to drive; In addition, he told me that many of his friends have started to switch from petrol cars to trams.
Traditional luxury cars may be facing the most serious challenges in history; If you are not careful, you may be on the same path as Nokia.
Porsche, data for the third quarter of 2023 shows that sales in China fell by 40% to only 1690,000 units; Similarly, BMW's full range of models took the initiative to reduce prices in China, with an average reduction of more than 100,000 yuan;
Reducing prices and clearing inventory is often the next policy to be forced to be cornered and give it a go.
I was particularly impressed by the fact that a friend had been thinking about selling his house in Zhengzhou's North Third Ring Road for a bigger house two years ago.
At the beginning, it was 1.5 million; Why hang this **, because his neighbor to the door is 1.51 million who got out of the house.
After the house was hung out, there were many people who looked at the house, and there were many people who were interested; However, they all hope that ** can be lowered again.
Friends, the main self-confidence, the main seller's market, has never let go. However, there were other owners in his community who couldn't hold it anymore, so they lowered the price of the house that was originally listed.
As a direct result of this action, no one came to see my friend's house.
He was a little panicked, and saw that everyone was looking at cheaper houses in the same community, so he adjusted the listing ** down to 1.4 million.
The entire real estate market has moved from a seller's market to a buyer's market.
Various new policies for real estate have been introduced one after another, such as reducing down payments, lowering interest rates, recognising houses without loans, and relaxing settlement policies, but the market transaction volume has not been expanding for a long time.
Until now, my friend's house has been reduced to 1 million, and it still hasn't been sold.
The house** dropped from 1.5 million to 1 million, a decrease of 500,000, a decrease of more than 30%.
As a result, in two years, not only did the down payment disappear, but a lot of money was put in, and valuable time and opportunity costs were missed.
In fact, this is a living death spiral model of the more price reductions and embarrassments.
Data**: Gelonghui.
The price reduction of traditional luxury cars, at the risk of entering the "death spiral", and the price reduction of heavy bleeding, must have seen the data that frightened it, so that it has to keep surviving. (See image above).
According to Gelonghui data, in January 2023, the market share of domestic self-owned brand automobiles broke through the integer mark of 50% in one fell swoop, climbing to 558%, of which, in October 2023, the market share of domestic self-owned brand cars will be 60%, which is a record for decades.
On the other hand, traditional car brands, in January 1 2023, the share of German cars was 179%, and the share of Japanese automobiles was 145%, and the share of U.S. automobiles is 88%, which has fallen below double digits.
Other car brands, such as Korean car brands and French car brands, are even more miserable, and the combined market share of the two is less than 3%, so it can be said that there is no place for them.
The era of foreign monks chanting scriptures may have begun to come to an end, and the corresponding domestic car track may usher in its own historic opportunity.
Domestic cars are at a watershed in history, and it is very likely that one step forward will create the "iphone4" era in the mobile phone industry, and the impact is immeasurable.
For example, when the iPhone joined hands with Android mobile phones to conquer the city, Nokia, which stuck to the old rules, disappeared from the streets overnight.
In the last week of 2023, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 40%, which means that for every 100 vehicles sold, 40 are new energy vehicles.
In contrast, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the U.S. auto market is less than 10%.
This data has been very rebellious, compared to the consumer electronics industry, for every 100 mobile phones sold, there are 20 Apple mobile phones, which is equivalent to a 20% "penetration rate"; You can feel how popular domestic new energy vehicles are.
Data**: Marklines, Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute.
BYD has undoubtedly become synonymous with domestic cars.
Whether you like BYD or not, BYD's first batch of Han Dynasty cars in 2020 opened up the city with the most spending power in the automotive industry when it ran on Huaihai Middle Road in Shanghai.
Shanghai not only has SAIC, but also Tesla, and there are also new forces of "Wei Xiaoli" around it; Therefore, the Tang, Song, and Qin before BYD did not have much sense of existence.
However, Han is different, not only helping BYD gain an unprecedented foothold in Shanghai, but also helping BYD's stock price break through the long-term ** range, and soar into the sky and become a "Che Mao".
In June 2022, BYD's market value exceeded the trillion mark, and the company's volume surpassed the German Volkswagen Group, ranking third in the world, second only to Tesla in the United States and Toyota Group in Japan.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, BYD not only surpassed Tesla in total car sales, but also completely surpassed Tesla in pure electric model sales, and deserved to be the world's first brother in new energy vehicles.
According to reference data on January 3, BYD's pure electric model sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 totaled 5260,000 units, while Tesla deliveries were 4840,000 units; For the first time, BYD surpassed Tesla in quarterly sales of pure electric models.BYD's domestic car handle explains the progress of domestic cars in the global auto market in an all-round way.
However, it is undeniable that the pressure on domestic cars is not small.
For example, new energy vehicles still have range anxiety; This buddy from Xpeng Motors told me that his car has a range of 500 kilometers and can run kilometers in winter, while in summer it can basically run more than 300 kilometers because it has to run the air conditioner for a long time.
For another example, the number of cars in China will exceed 3 in 2023300 million vehicles, calculated according to a family of three, each family is equivalent to 072 cars; The market pie is already very limited.
Therefore, the way out for domestic cars lies in two aspects.
On the one hand, it is to squeeze into the market of the original foreign automobile brands in China; On the other hand, go all out to sea and fight your way out on the international stage.