Min Aung Hlaing felt bad and was ready to make a big move.
On 10 February this year, Myanmar urgently launched a new National Service Law, which has been proposed for several years, and is now suddenly implemented for a reason.
Myanmar's new National Service Law stipulates that men aged 18-35 who are in good health and unmarried women between the ages of 18 and 27 must serve in the military for two years, which can be extended to five years depending on the circumstances.
It looks normal, but what does that mean?Supposedly, China has just mediated a ceasefire and stopped the war, and Min Aung Hlaing should not expand its recruitment and provoke contradictions.
However, he ignored the good offices of the Chinese side, forcibly conscripted troops, expanded his strength, and prepared to fight a decisive battle. The game between the two sides is like this, if you become stronger, I will also become stronger, and defend equally.
Peng Deren is willing to abide by China's mediation, but if Min Aung Hlaing insists on fighting, he will not sit idly by and will definitely accompany him to the end.
Min Aung Hlaing's forced conscription this time, we analyze it from two aspects:
1. What is Min Aung Hlaing's strength?
From the fighting in northern Myanmar last year, it can be seen that the combat effectiveness of the Burmese army is weak, and it is claimed that it has 300,000 people, so how can it not defeat the Kokang Allied Army of several thousand people?
This has to make people wonder if Min Aung Hlaing really has an army of 300,000 as claimed to the outside world300,000, transfer 100,000, even if it is piled up, it can also flatten the thousands of people of the Allied Army.
But the fact is that the Burmese army was defeated, and Kokang was also lost.
The answer to this matter can be found in the establishment of the surrender of the Burmese army. In the course of fighting the Kokang Alliance, there were many times when the Burmese army surrendered in formation.
One battalion they surrendered was just over a hundred people, and according to the regular formation, a battalion numbered about 500 people. This shows that the Burmese army has a serious problem of empty salaries.
Specifically, there are 500 people in a battalion, and there are indeed 500 people in the report, but there are only more than 100 people, and there are still more than 300 people, just lying on the roster, and there is no such person.
But these more than 300 people, the above have to pay silver every month, and these silver will naturally go into the pockets of Burmese officers.
According to relevant sources, although the Burmese army claims to have 300,000, the actual number of available personnel is estimated to be 70,000.
The armed groups in various parts of Myanmar add up to far more than 70,000 people, such as the Wa State Army with 40,000 people, the Arakan Army with 30,000 people, the Allied Army with more than 10,000 people, and the De'ang Army with 10,000 people.
That's just a few in northern Myanmar, and it's already more than 70,000. There are more than 136 armed groups in the entire territory of Myanmar, even if some other unknown ones are 2,000-3,000 people, and the number of people together is much larger than that of the Burmese army.
At present, the national unity, represented by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, is striving to unite the national armed forces in various localities, and once united, a powerful joint force will be formed.
Min Aung Hlaing obviously knew that his troops were not enough, and he had to expand his recruitment and strength, on the one hand, to deal with future uncertainties, and on the other hand, to prepare for a decisive battle with Peng Deren.
2. The reaction of the Burmese people.
The implementation of this "National Service Law" has aroused dissatisfaction among the people of Myanmar, who have tried to find ways to escape, and those who can flee have fled abroad, especially to Thailand.
Young men who can't escape, some of them self-harm, doesn't it ask for nothing wrong with their bodies, and they let their bodies become problematic.
Some young women, in order to avoid military service, quickly find someone to marry. This successfully circumvents the condition of "unmarried".
In Myanmar, there is now a surge in the proportion of "flash marriages".
Min Aung Hlaing's original intention was to expand his strength through the new "National Service Law", but he did not expect it to be counterproductive, which fully shows that he is not popular with the people.
If there is no popular will, there will be no military will, and if there is no military will, we will surely fail.
This is what the ancients said: Those who win the hearts of the people win the world, and those who lose the hearts of the people lose the world!