Reporter Li Zhe reports from Beijing.
On January 31, information from the National Development and Reform Commission showed that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, in accordance with the current formation mechanism of refined oil products, from 24 o'clock on January 31, 2024, domestic gasoline and diesel ** (standard products) will be increased by 200 yuan per ton.
The reporter of China Business News noticed that the domestic refined oil products were affected by the fluctuation of international oil prices. After the last price adjustment before the Spring Festival, so far in 2024, domestic refined oil products have "risen twice and fallen once".
Wang Yanting, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, said that due to the international market, the rate of change in the current round of pricing cycle maintained positive fluctuations. With the recent international *** continues to rise, it is expected that after the opening of a new round of pricing cycle, the rate of change will continue to fluctuate positively.
International *** upside
In this round of refined oil pricing cycle, the international market is the most important and the range continues to widen.
Total U.S. inventories, including strategic reserves, fell by 8.31 million barrels to 7. as of Jan. 19, 2024, from a week ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration7,718.8 billion barrels.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the preliminary US gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 33%, higher than the market expectation of 20%。With the support of multiple positives, the international market has continued to rise recently. On January 30, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an update to the World Economic Outlook report, raising its global economic growth forecast for 2024 to 31%, 0. higher than the October 2023** value2 percentage points.
On the supply side, Russian energy company Novatek's Baltic port has been forced to suspend operations due to the situation in Ukraine, which currently exports about 1.35 million barrels per day of oil products and refined products. In addition, the blockage of the Red Sea route still has an impact on the international oil price, and the reduction supports international oil prices.
Bi Mingxin, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, pointed out that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has provided support for the market. International oil companies operating projects in Iraq's Kurdistan region have called on the U.S. Congress to take action to help address the disruption of exports from the Iraqi region.
Under the influence of the adjustment of supply and demand, international oil prices have shown a leading trend in this round of pricing cycle. According to Jinlianchuang's calculation, as of the tenth working day of January 31, 2024, the average price of the reference ** variety is 78$86 barrel with a rate of change of 375%, the domestic retail price was raised. Among them, gasoline was raised by 200 yuan tons, diesel was raised by 200 yuan tons, and the discount prices were: 89 015 yuan, 92 016 yuan, 95 017 yuan, 0 0$17.
Wang Yanting said that due to the ***, the rate of change in this round of pricing cycle maintained positive fluctuations. With the recent international *** continued to rise, it is expected that after the opening of a new round of pricing cycle, the rate of change will continue to fluctuate positively. On the first working day after the price adjustment is cashed, the rate of change will be 29%, corresponding to an increase of 150 yuan in gasoline and diesel. In the short term, the international trend is still relatively strong, and there is a high probability of a new round of retail price increases, and the price adjustment window is February 19, 2024.
The domestic market "rose and fell".
Although the domestic gasoline and diesel are the first, the market is showing a pattern of "gasoline rising and diesel falling". With the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, gasoline demand continued to improve, while diesel demand weakened further.
Wang Yanting said that in this round of pricing cycle, the international trend is relatively strong, and the news has a certain amount of support in the face of the news. In addition, with the approach of the Spring Festival, people's travel has gradually increased, and the travel radius and frequency of private cars have increased, driving the demand for gasoline to gradually improve, the market transaction is relatively active, and the main business and local refineries have risen to a certain extent. Large-scale outdoor projects, industrial and mining enterprises and other oil-using units have been suspended for holidays, diesel demand has further weakened, downstream stocking is more cautious, shipment pressure, and the main unit diesel has fallen. In the later stage of the pricing cycle, with the expansion of the first rally, some middle and downstream users considered moderate replenishment, and the purchase and sales of the diesel market improved slightly, but the first resistance was still large.
After entering a new round of pricing cycle, affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the rate of change may still maintain positive development. Wang Yanting said that as the market continues to rise, the export arbitrage of domestic refined oil resources has gradually widened, and there are additional expectations for gasoline and diesel exports in the later period, and the market excess pressure may be moderately eased. At the same time, on the eve of the Spring Festival, downstream users have started stocking up one after another, especially the demand for gasoline continues to improve, the enthusiasm of the industry has increased, and the shipments of the main and local refineries have further improved, and the market will continue to rise. It is difficult for diesel to get rid of weak demand in the short term, but most industry players consider stocking up in advance, which also supports the overall **, and ** will tend to be firm.
In the context of abnormal fluctuations in international oil prices, the fundamentals of China's energy security have remained unchanged, and oil and gas companies continue to increase exploration and development.
According to the National Energy Administration, in 2023, domestic oil and gas production equivalent will exceed 3900 million tons, maintaining a rapid growth momentum of 10 million tons for 7 consecutive years, with an average annual growth rate of 11.7 million tons of oil equivalent, forming a new peak period of output growth.
Among them, the ** output in 2023 will reach 20.8 billion tons, an increase of more than 3 million tons year-on-year, and an increase of nearly 19 million tons compared with 2018.
Editor: Dong Shuguang Proofreader: Zhai Jun).