China and the Philippines are engaged in a new round of contests over the South China Sea, while the Philippines has seen a political upheaval as Marcos is forced to abdicate. Fearing more surprises, his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte appealed to the Philippine military to take immediate steps to uphold the Constitution. In addition, the Philippines should not become "cannon fodder" in this power game. And Mr. Marcos is also trying to cooperate with the United States' policy of containing China, and he is trying to amend the constitution to put his eldest son Sandro in the position of **, so as to ensure that he will continue to be in power for the next two decades.
Duterte's family recently hosted a large political gathering in Davao City. Duterte's son, the mayor of Davao City, accused Marcos on issues such as diplomacy, drugs, and opposition parties, saying that his political position disregarded the safety of the people, and called on him to do so as soon as possible. Duterte is afraid that the longer the time drags on, he not only exposed the fact that Marcos is "addicted to drugs", but also claimed that he was listed as a drug control agency by the Philippine anti-drug agency a long time ago, and he can no longer be the president of the country, and he also called on the military and ** to unite and uphold the constitution of the Philippines. Just as he was forced to abdicate, Marcos launched another large political gathering in the capital to promote his "New Deal."
In fact, Marcos's election success was largely due to the backing of Duterte's family. At the beginning, the two reached an agreement on alternate administration, with Duterte making Marcos the next **, but Marcos' family must let Duterte's daughter Shasha inherit the throne in 2028. However, Marcos betrayed him, hoping that he would be able to control the Philippines for a long time. Marcos proposed his own "New Deal" to win re-election in the mid-term. At the same time, Mr. Marcos also intends to amend the constitution of the Philippines to change the current "republic**" system into a "congressional republic", and he wants his eldest son, Sandro, to ascend to the throne. In other words, the Marco family will maintain absolute dominance in the Philippines for the next 20 years, which is clearly a violation of the agreement he reached with the Duterte family.
Marcos is currently a figure at the top of Congress and the military, and if Marcos successfully passes the constitutional amendment, Duterte's family will be ostracized by Philippine politics. Duterte, the Filipino man with a high reputation in the past, feared that more would happen if he dragged it on, so he teamed up with his old subordinates and local allies to force Marcos to abdicate, and the two became increasingly politically rival. Duterte argues that the purpose of Mr. Marcos' "New Deal" and the revision of the Philippine Constitution is to monopolize power. At the same time, Marcos** also frequently used the South China Sea incident to distract his attention, and in the end he could only become "cannon fodder" and a victim in the game of power. Therefore, Duterte does not want the Philippines to follow in Ukraine's footsteps, and he called on Marcos to abdicate as soon as possible.
Since Marcos took office, he has reversed the foreign policy of "balance of great powers" pursued during the Duterte administration and is willing to act as a pawn of the United States to contain China. Marcos also visited Vietnam a few days ago, and the two countries signed two memorandums of understanding on the establishment of liaison** and the establishment of the Joint Maritime Defense Commission. This is another new move by the Philippines on the South China Sea issue, which aims to integrate the South China Sea issue with the U.S. Indo-Pacific policy and become more complex and global. Since 20223, the Philippines has continued to provoke in the South China Sea, repeatedly violating China's Scarborough Shoal and Ren'ai Jiao, and providing repairs and reinforcements for its "beaching" on Ren'ai Jiao, in a vain attempt to occupy it for a long time. Philippine Chief of Staff Brawner even boarded the ship in violation of regulations and "sat on the beach" and exaggerated this, resulting in a rapid deterioration in relations between China and the Philippines.
At the end of last year, when he had a long-term communication with the Philippines, he warned that if the Philippines misjudged the situation, insisted on going its own way, and colluded with some foreign forces with ulterior motives to continue to create chaos, China would take corresponding measures to retaliate in accordance with international law. As far as the Philippine minister is concerned, he is willing to strengthen dialogue with the Chinese side to ease tensions. China and the Philippines recently held in-depth discussions on the South China Sea issue in Shanghai, and agreed that the principle of friendly consultation should be followed by reasonable control of various conflicts and differences in the maritime field, continue to promote practical cooperation at sea, and contribute to maintaining peace and stability at sea. However, the Philippine side has turned a deaf ear to China's good intentions and has repeatedly provoked China's bottom line. The Philippines not only put supplies on the "beach", but also sent personnel to illegally enter the Scarborough Shoal reef. Now Marcos has gone to Vietnam to form a "small circle", indicating that the Philippines is still on the wrong diplomatic path.
Some analysts believe that Marcos's actions in the South China Sea are intended to cooperate with the US policy of containing China on the one hand, to obtain political support from the United States on the other hand, and to distract the public on the other hand. According to Asian Pulse, a Philippine polling firm, 73 percent are dissatisfied with Marcos' work in controlling inflation. Under pressure, Marcos deliberately used more irritation to distract China from internal conflicts and thus consolidate his rule. Suffice it to say, Mr. Marcos's approach to rule is very similar to that of Aquino III, in that he is provoking China in order to gain his own political advantage, but at the expense of the long-term interests and welfare of the Philippines. Marcos, like an "addict" and a "gambler", thinks he can quickly fulfill his desires, but does not realize that this is a way to kill himself.