Tianfeng ** shares *** Sun Haiyang recently conducted research on Golis and released a research report "Revenue Continues to Grow, Store Expansion", this report gives a ** rating to Golis, the current stock price is 655 yuan.
Golis (603808).
Revenue in 2023 is expected to increase by 20-25% year-on-year
23Q4 company to the parent -036 to -00.6 billion yuan (22Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company -0..)6.1 billion yuan); Excluding the provision for goodwill impairment, it is attributed to the parent 064-0.$9.4 billion; Deduction of non-attributable net profit -051 to -02.1 billion yuan (22Q4 net profit deducted from non-attributable to the parent -0.)6.6 billion yuan).
In 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1-1300 million yuan, an increase of 389%-536%; Excluding the provision for goodwill impairment, it is attributed to the parent 2-2300 million yuan, an increase of 878%-1025%; Deduction of non-attributable net profit -076-1.0.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1428%-2032% year-on-year.
The company's multi-brand matrix is developed synergistically to promote continuous revenue growth, which is expected to increase by 20%-25% year-on-year and 22%-27% over 21 years; The revenue of all the company's brands increased compared to 2022 and 2021, especially the self-portrait brand, the Laurèl brand and the Iro Paris brand performed well in the domestic market.
The goodwill impairment in this period is mainly based on the preliminary impairment test of the goodwill formed by the company's transfer of the equity of Shenzhen Qianhailin Investment Management Company and the transfer of the equity of its subsidiary to Tangli International Holding Company, and according to the preliminary test results, the company intends to make a total of about 90 million to 100 million yuan of goodwill impairment provisions in 2023.
Affected by factors such as continued inflation, geopolitical situation, and significant weakening of consumer demand in Europe and the United States, Qianhai Forest's operating performance in 2023 did not meet expectations, and due to the continued macroeconomic pressure in Europe and the United States, it is expected that Qianhai Forest's overseas profitability will decline in the future, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is also taken into account.
In recent years, the company's offline channels have been efficiently expanded.
By the end of 2023, the company has about 651 stores, of which 503 are directly operated stores, a net increase of about 43 from the beginning of the year. With the normal operation of stores, the increase in stores has helped revenue growth. At the same time, the company has adopted a multi-brand and multi-platform development strategy to promote good growth in online sales.
The company has adopted a strategy of aggressive expansion and increased investment for long-term development, which has driven continuous good revenue growth. On this basis, in 2023, with the recovery of the domestic business environment, the sales of newly opened stores have increased, the expense ratio has been optimized, and the profit of the domestic business has generally achieved a good recovery, which is expected to recover to the level of 2021.
Adjusted for earnings** and maintained the "**" rating.
The company disclosed the 2023 performance forecast, and planned to carry out goodwill impairment, so it adjusted the profit**. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 23-25 years to be 121/3.08/3.5.1 billion yuan (the previous value was 2..)20/3.41/3.8.3 billion yuan), EPS were 033/0.84/0.95 yuan shares, corresponding to PE are 20 8 7X.
Risk warning: the risk of performance decline due to adverse changes in the external market environment; the risk of not being able to accurately grasp fashion trends; the risk of counterfeiting and illegal online purchases; the risk of the decline of the traffic dividend of traditional e-commerce channels and the unfavorable expansion of new e-commerce channels; The performance forecast is only a preliminary estimate, and the specific financial data is subject to the company's officially released 2023 annual report.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Liu Li has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is 4913%, and its **2023 attributable net profit is 21.9 billion, and the **PE converted according to the current price is 1104。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 14 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with ** rating 10 rating and 4 overweight ratings; The average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 1212。
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