After the opening of midday trading on February 29, the main contract of the European line of container shipping fell slightly, and it is currently at a low level in the intraday. As of February 26, the SCFIS European index has been the third consecutive week**, and in response, the ** market is also relatively sluggish. At present, the European line capacity is still very sufficient, the shipping industry is facing problems such as economic downturn and over-space system, and the freight rate is expected to continue to decline in the future, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the shipping market.
[Institutional Perspective].
Shanghai Medium-term: The current SCFIS European Index lasted for the third week**, and the spot index fell by 9% month-on-month on February 265% to 2936 points. On the supply side, the container fleet is expected to grow by 8 percent in 2024 with the centralized delivery of new ships8%, but considering the overall increase in idle capacity and the possibility that the speed may continue to slow down under the requirements of carbon emissions, it is expected that the actual capacity supply of the European route may increase by about 6-7% in 2024. On the demand side, the Eurozone's preliminary markit composite PMI rose to 48 in February9 was higher than expected, but still below the Kurong line, where the preliminary service PMI rose to 50, while the preliminary manufacturing fell to 461. The overall economic growth is still under pressure, and container shipping has a certain impact.
In terms of geopolitical disruptions, the head of Maersk North America said in a statement on Tuesday that it is ready for the situation in the Red Sea to continue into the second half of the year and increases transit times in the ** chain planning, taking into account the long detour of ships to southern Africa, the company has increased its capacity by about 6% to offset the impact of delays. On the whole, the Red Sea conflict is expected to be difficult to alleviate in a short period of time, but at present, the European line capacity is still very sufficient, the shipping industry is facing problems such as economic downturn and over-space system, freight rates are expected to continue to decline, and it is still necessary to be vigilant against the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the shipping market.