Yesterday we launched an article "This will be the most complicated rain and snow weather we have encountered since 2008", although 16 years have passed, the rare low temperature rain and snow freezing in the south before the Spring Festival in 2008 still impresses those who have experienced it. We also received a lot of questions from our friends in the background: Will the rain, snow, low temperature and freezing disaster in the south be repeated in 2008?
Let's start with the conclusion: no. The duration, intensity and scope of the rain and snow freeze were not as good as in 2008.
A brief review of how strong the 2008 snowstorm was in the south.
From January 10 to February 2, 2008, under the combined influence of cold and warm air, there were four obvious rain and snow weather processes in China. Heavy to heavy snowfall occurred in Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hunan and northwest Jiangxi, and northern Zhejiang; Freezing rain or freezing weather occurred in Hunan, Guizhou, southern Anhui and Jiangxi. The main time of the four processes is: January 10-16, 18-22, 25-29, and January 31-February 2.
On the whole, this meteorological disaster has the characteristics of wide scope, high intensity, long duration, and heavy impact, and it is generally a once in 50 years, and once in a century in Guizhou, Hunan and other places, which is rare in history.
Let's take a look at the largest and strongest rain, snow and freezing weather process that will start tomorrow this winter. **The Meteorological Observatory issued the latest important weather reminder this evening, the process is generally the strongest winter since 2009, with extremity, of which the cumulative precipitation in some areas of southern Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, southern Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, northern Chongqing, northern Jiangxi, northern Hunan and other places will be close to or break through the extreme value of the same period in history.
Tomorrow (31st), the precipitation in North China and Huanghuai will spread rapidly, and the rain and snow dividing line is mainly located in the northern part of Anhui, the northern part of Jiangsu, and the southern part of Henan, and there will be heavy to heavy snowfall in some areas of northern Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, northern Henan, and central and southern Shandong; Freezing rain in parts of northern Hubei; There are heavy to heavy rains in parts of southwestern Anhui and northern Jiangxi.
The day after tomorrow (February 1), as the cold air moves further south, most of the Huanghuai will turn into pure snow, and the rain and snow dividing line will be further southward to central Jiangsu, central Anhui, and southern Hubei, and the area of freezing rain will also increase, and freezing rain may occur in southern Henan, western and northern Hubei, and northern Hunan.
On February 2, the snowfall in the north further expanded to the western part of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Qinghai, while the heavy snowfall area fell southward, and heavy to heavy snowfall may occur in southern Henan, central Hubei, and northern Hunan.
From February 3 to 4, as the warm and humid airflow strengthens again, the scope and intensity of rain and snow will increase, and it is also the most concentrated period of heavy snowfall in North China and Huanghuai.
Starting on the 6th, the precipitation in the north will basically end; The eastern part of the southwest region, the southern part of the Yangtze River, and the southern part of the country will continue to rain until after the 7th.
The rain and snow freeze did not last as long as in 2008.
One of the most important factors in the severe impact of the 2008 low temperatures, rain, snow and freezing weather was the unusually long duration. The rain and snow process lasted for about 20 days from January 10 to February 2, during which there were four large-scale rain, snow and ice weather processes, including 10 to 20 days in Hunan, most of Hubei, northwest Jiangxi, central and southern Anhui, and central Guizhou.
Specifically, the number of freezing days in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Guizhou exceeded several years, which was the highest in the same period in history. The rain, snow and freezing weather in Hunan and Hubei provinces was the longest and most serious since 1954. The duration of freezing rain in 43 counties (cities) in Guizhou broke the historical record.
This year, we are about to encounter this round of the strongest rain and snow freezing weather this winter, the rain and snow process lasts for 6 days, of which Shaanxi, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places have 4 5 days of rain and snow, and some areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have up to 6 days of rainy weather, the longest duration of the process since 2009.
However, compared to the 20 days of rain and snow in 2008, this process is still far less time-sensitive.
Why did the rain, snow and ice last so long in 2008? Hu Xiao, chief meteorological analyst of China Weather Network, explained that in 2008, the subtropical high was located northward, and the warm and humid airflow moved northward, encountering four cold air that was not strong in succession, and the two were evenly matched, forming a stable, less swinging quasi-stationary front (or shear line) in the Yangtze River basin, resulting in rain, snow and freezing weather lasting for a long time.
This year, the process is also a confrontation between cold air and warm and humid airflow, resulting in a long period of rain and snow, and also "rubbing" the Jianghuai cyclone, resulting in the possibility of adjusting the center of gravity of rain and snow in the later part of the process. But fortunately, after February 7, with the gradual weakening of the southern branch trough, which has been active for more than 20 days, and a new wave of cold air from the north to supplement the south, most of the north of the Yangtze River will be controlled by dry and cold air, and the rain and snow process will end and usher in a clear situation.
The rain and snow are more northerly.
Compared with the low-temperature rain, snow and freezing weather process in January 2008, due to the strong warm and humid strength, the rain and snow affected the area in this process is more northerly, and most areas south of the Yangtze River are dominated by rainfall. From the 1st to the 4th, there was freezing rain in southern Shandong, southern Henan, central and western Hubei, northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu, northwest Hunan, eastern Guizhou and other places, with a total area of 430,000 square kilometers, the largest affected area and the largest number of provinces since 2009. The impact of rain, snow and ice in the south is still not as large as in 2008.
The ability to cope with rain, snow and freezing weather is stronger.
The rare low-temperature, rain, snow and freezing weather in 2008 also had the same thing as this process: they all occurred during the Spring Festival transportation period, and the affected areas were also important passages and densely populated areas for the transportation of materials such as transportation, electricity, and coal in China.
However, 16 years later, our country's ability to cope with rain, snow and freezing weather has been greatly improved, and the infrastructure of vulnerable industries such as electricity, transportation, agriculture, communications, forestry and other industries has also been improved and strengthened. After all, after 2008, the title of "infrastructure madman" did not come for nothing.
This year's Spring Festival home will be twists and turns due to the weather, but it is really difficult to repeat a disaster event that had such a severe impact on us as in 2008. I hope you all go home safely! (China Weather Network).