From expanding beans to stabilizing beans, what kind of signal is revealed behind it?
This time, Document No. 1 was issued in advance, in the past, it was the year after the year, but now, it has been advanced to before the Spring Festival.
It's good to announce it early so that everyone knows what's going on.
In this report, corn, wheat and rice have not changed much, and most of them are the same as last year, with the only difference being soybeans.
So, on February 8, we have to talk about it.
Soybeans have undergone some important changes:
The first reason is that it has changed the way forward.
The development of soybean has undergone several changes, the previous country focused on the three major staple foods, with the goal of meeting the needs of the people, and put the soybean in the first place, with grain as the main body, soybean as the main raw material, and import as the supplement.
However, with the rapid increase in demand for meat, eggs and milk, the demand for soybeans is also increasing rapidly.
In 2019, the state introduced the "Soybean Revival Project", which can be regarded as a new beginning.
And then these two stages, in the Chinese market, form a paradox:
First, China's pig production has recovered rapidly after being seriously damaged, and the destocking of corn has just been completed, resulting in a sharp increase in China's demand for corn, but the supply has decreased;
Second, due to infectious diseases around the world, the rupture of the industrial chain and the dislocation of supply and demand have led to a large increase in the world's food.
Under these two conflicts, the demand for corn has skyrocketed, so the goal of grain production in both years has been to "increase corn and increase soybeans".
However, from 2022 to 2023, it will be adjusted from "two stability and one increase" (grain, soybean, corn) in 2021 to "two stability and two expansion" (grain, corn, soybean, oilseed) in 2022, and "two stability, two expansion and two improvements" (area, output, soybean, oilseed, yield, and self-sufficiency rate) in 2023.
However, in 2022, that is, in 2022, it will be readjusted to "three stability, one expansion and one mention" (grain stability, corn stability, soybean stability, rapeseed planting area continues to increase, and the unit area increases significantly).
This means that after two years of "expansion", soybeans have become "stable" again.
The reason for this change is that after two years of planting, the domestic soybean production has reached more than 20 million tons for two consecutive years, but the import of soybeans from abroad is very huge, thus creating a vicious circle of "imported soybeans into the market, domestic soybeans into the warehouse".
There are two reasons for this:
One is because cheap imported soybeans, although they have a certain impact, they are not the main factor.
The most basic problem is supply and demand.
This kind of "weak demand" not only refers to domestic demand, but more importantly, there is simply not enough food to support it on this ** chain. Although the production has increased, they are still digesting at the same rate as before, and they cannot digest at all.
Therefore, the soybean market can only be maintained by way of acquisition.
In fact, this is also a very hard thing, not only to increase the grain **, in order to allow farmers to grow more grain, but also to open the granary, such a practice, it is impossible to last too long, so this year's grain **, will be lower than in previous years.
Therefore, in order to further expand soybeans, it is necessary to solve the export problem first, so there is another shift: the focus of soybeans has shifted from production to intensive processing.
Therefore, one of the measures introduced this time is to support agricultural enterprises, develop the entire agricultural industry chain, including soybeans, and form a grain and feed industry cluster.
In other words, it is necessary to increase the deep processing of soybeans and improve their processing level to meet the increasing demand for soybeans.
As the policy on soybeans has changed again, there are two more concerns: First, what is the market situation? How will the soybean subsidy change?
In the market, we feel that although the soybean market is the same as corn and wheat, it is a pattern of both supply and demand, but because soybeans are different from wheat and corn, due to the support of the state, the possibility of *** is very low.
Although soybeans ** all the way, it is estimated that after the New Year, there will still be relevant policies to support**, so the next thing is to look at the country's policies, don't think about rising, buy quickly.
As for subsidies, soybean subsidies are likely to remain stable next year.
One is because of the increase in crop yields, and the other is because the production cost of crops is too high, and the possibility of farmers' incomes falling is not large.
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