On the automated production line of Zhengqi Solar's high-efficiency cell project in Ma'anshan Economic Development Zone, Anhui Province, workers are busy making high-efficiency crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell products. Photo by Wang Wensheng (Zhongjing Vision).
Since last year, the topic of overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry has received widespread attention. After years of development, the technical level of China's photovoltaic industry has been continuously upgraded, the scale of industrial manufacturing and installed capacity has continued to expand, the cost of electricity has been rapidly reduced, the comprehensive strength of the industry has reached the international advanced level, and it has firmly occupied a global dominant position in all links of the industrial chain. It is of great significance to respond scientifically and rationally to the problem of photovoltaic production capacity and resolve the potential risks of the industry.
There are periodic and structural risks.
In 2023, China's photovoltaic industry will be full of bright spots. The new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation exceeded 200 million kilowatts throughout the year, nearly twice that of 2022 and a record high. Photovoltaic power generation technology has been rapidly iterating, and the conversion efficiency of advanced cells in mass production will reach 24 in 2022On the basis of 6%, 2023 will once again set a new record to reach 255%。We will continue to consolidate our position as the country with the largest photovoltaic equipment manufacturing capacity in the world, contributing more than 70% of the world's photovoltaic products such as silicon wafers, cells and photovoltaic modules. In 2023, China's photovoltaic module export volume will exceed 17.5 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 224%。
At the same time of the rapid development of the industry, there is a risk of overcapacity after the large-scale expansion of enterprises, and the industrial chain has been declining, and some links of enterprises have stopped production, which has attracted attention from many parties.
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that there is indeed a certain stage and structural excess risk in China's photovoltaic industry, but it is generally within the normal scope of industry development.
Jiang Hua, deputy secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, analyzed that from the perspective of the development cycle of photovoltaics, the first three declines were caused by the decline in market and demand, and the expansion of demand through policy guidance was effectively solved or alleviatedThe downstream market is still growing normally due to this round of cyclical fluctuations, so it is more appropriate to introduce corresponding measures from the supply side.
According to statistics, the capacity utilization rate of the photovoltaic industry has generally been at the level of 50% to 60% over the years, and it is normal for the production capacity to exceed the demand by 1 time. By the end of 2023, the production capacity of photovoltaic equipment in all links will reach about 1,000 GW, corresponding to the demand of 400 GW in the global market, which is slightly beyond the normal range.
However, judging from the trend and market financing, there is indeed an imbalance between supply and demand and poor expectations in the industry. Since 2023, with the release of new production capacity, the supply and demand of the industrial chain have begun to undergo major changes, from polysilicon to modules. Under the current situation, second- and third-tier manufacturers have suffered losses, and the head enterprises are also approaching breakeven, and some companies are stopping production due to falling below the cost. In the face of concerns about overcapacity, some new capacity construction and corporate financing have slowed down or been suspended.
In the face of more fierce competition, the leading enterprises have seen a positive side. The relevant person in charge of JinkoSolar said that in the downward cycle of module **, the industry's profit performance has been further differentiated. Enterprises with a high proportion of advanced production capacity and strong cost channel advantages are more competitive. At present, the industry has seen the differentiation of operating rates, the slowdown of production expansion of some enterprises and the withdrawal of new entrants, and the pace of iteration of new and old technologies and the clearance of backward production capacity is expected to be further accelerated.
Beware of mismatches between supply and demand.
Is there overcapacity in the PV industry? The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology believes that China's photovoltaic industry is still in the normal range as a whole, and the reasons are: first, the green and low-carbon trend promotes the development of the photovoltaic industry, and appropriate oversupply can guide enterprises to compete reasonably, which is a normal phenomenon of industry operation and market competition; Second, the photovoltaic industry generally belongs to the pan-semiconductor field, with cyclical development characteristics, and the stage is a normal attribute of the industry; Third, the photovoltaic industry chain is long, the technology iteration is fast, and the construction cycle of each link is not the same, and there may be structural surplus at a certain stage.
In the view of Lv Jinbiao, deputy director of the silicon industry expert group of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, it is an overinterpretation to say that the current overcapacity in the industry is an overinterpretation, and there are some "PPT capacity" in this round of capacity development, which will not be implemented immediately. At the same time, the debottlenecking of polysilicon, the iteration of battery technology, and the integrated expansion of leading enterprises in the past two years are all manifestations of enhancing the competitiveness and sustainable development of the industry.
Liu Hanyuan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Tongwei Group, said that how to maintain the competitive pressure and efficiency of the industry while properly considering the competitive ecology is worthy of joint thinking and exploration by the whole industry. The current overcapacity will usher in a new balance in a short period of time, don't worry too much, the market will leave the matter to the market, and appropriate guidance can deal with this so-called excess crisis.
Still, the negative impact of the mismatch between supply and demand is worth paying attention to. Liu Yuxi, President of LONGi Green Energy China, believes that as the "first-class war" continues, photovoltaic modules have fallen below the cash cost of enterprises, and there has been a phenomenon of enterprises sacrificing product quality in order to reduce costs; Downstream power plant investors are worried about whether low prices can continue to guarantee supply and module quality, and whether it will bring unpredictable risks. More importantly, long-term low-price competition will have an impact on the reasonable operation of the industry, damage the innovation gene of the photovoltaic industry, and then weaken the global competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry.
According to the semi-annual reports of listed companies in 2023, the top four leading photovoltaic module manufacturers in terms of shipments have shown a significant increase in R&D investment compared with the previous month**. The "14th Five-Year Plan for Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Energy Field" issued by the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Science and Technology clearly states that innovation is the first driving force to lead energy development. However, in the face of zero profit margins and capital withdrawal, some photovoltaic companies may be powerless to deal with scientific and technological innovation.
Avoid industrial ups and downs.
Although China's photovoltaic industry has encountered temporary difficulties, we must jointly consolidate the hard-won global competitive advantage on the basis of facing up to the problem.
Innovation is the key to the high-quality development of China's photovoltaic industry, and quality is an inevitable requirement for the large-scale development of the industry, and both are indispensable. In the view of Qian Jing, vice president of JinkoSolar, at present, the development of the industry needs to be rational and speak with technology and performance. Efficient production capacity is never enough, and technological upgrading must be accelerated. As long as it is a fair market, it has its own natural adjustment mechanism to achieve the survival of the fittest.
Li Zhenguo, President of LONGi Green Energy, also said that the further intensification of competition in the industry has prompted enterprises to strengthen technological innovation, further improve the conversion efficiency of solar cells, and reduce the cost of photovoltaic electricity. These are the constant themes of the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry.
Experiencing the baptism of "first-class war" is the inevitable experience of many industries to mature, but to achieve benign development, it is still necessary to return to the track of orderly competition. In view of the basic transparency of the cost of each link in the photovoltaic industry, professionals suggest that the mature experience of the communication industry can be referred to, and the relevant requirements of "minimum price" can be set in the bidding, and the bids below the cost price will be invalidated. At present, some central enterprises have adopted the system of "reasonable bullseye price" in the bidding, removing the most advanced and lowest price, and taking the middle "bullseye price", but the promotion and popularization of this scheme in the industry still need top-level design guidance.
Experts suggest that we should focus on the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, reasonably grasp the industrial cycle, strengthen top-level design and policy supply, support enterprise technological innovation, guide the rational planning and layout of the industry, and steadily promote the iteration and transformation and upgrading of industrial technology. At present, the new installed capacity of PV is still far from achieving the goal of carbon neutrality, and in terms of policy, we should not only consider limiting production capacity, but also promote the further expansion of demand, effectively stabilize the good expectations of the industry, and avoid major ups and downs in the industry. (Economic ** reporter Wang Yichen).
*:Economy**.