After entering 2024, the trend of the domestic real estate market is "confusing". Judging from the current real estate trends, both the new and second-hand housing markets have seen a significant decrease in sales area and sales. At the same time, housing prices in various places have also appeared to varying degrees. It has been adjusted from the third- and fourth-tier cities at the beginning, to the second-tier cities such as Zhengzhou and Tianjin, and finally spread to first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
However, various favorable policies to rescue the market have continued to be introduced. Except that now banks are cutting mortgage rates below 4%. The vast majority of cities in China have already relaxed their purchase restriction policies. Even first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen have successively relaxed their purchase restrictions in non-core urban areas. In addition, major cities such as Nanjing and Xiamen have announced that residents will be allowed to use funds from their provident fund to pay for the down payment of a house.
In the face of the current property market, many families who have not yet bought a house will feel very confused. From 2024 onwards, should you "buy a house as soon as possible" or "wait a little longer"? In response to this problem, Ma Yun once made it public: the house in the future will no longer be a scarce resource, and there may even be a situation where one person owns multiple houses. He even thinks that the house of the future could become very cheap. At the same time, Jack Ma also believes that young people should not buy houses too early. Because buying a house too early will only put pressure on young people and prevent them from being free to pursue their dreams.
We very much agree with Ma Yun and Wang Shi's view that houses will appear in the next few years, housing prices will become cheaper and cheaper, and young people should not buy houses now. The trend of the real estate market is mainly analyzed from the following aspects:
First, China has entered an "aging, declining birthrate" society. In the future, there will be more and more elderly people and fewer and fewer young people, which means that the number of people who just need to buy a house will be less and less. Because the elderly already have their own houses and do not need to buy a house, while the young people are reluctant to get married, the demand for buying a wedding house will continue to decrease.
At the same time, with the decline of people's fertility intentions, the number of families with second and third children will decrease in the future, which indicates that the demand for improved housing in the future is also shrinking. Therefore, there is a high probability that commodity housing prices will show a trend of "stable and declining". If you choose to "wait a little longer", the cost of buying a house will drop significantly in a few years.
Second, since October last year, China has announced that it will launch a new round of housing reform policies. This means that 6 million affordable housing units will be put on the market in the next five years to meet the needs of low- and middle-income families in the city. The new round of housing reform policy will be piloted in 35 cities with a population of more than 3 million across the country.
At that time, many young families in China can choose to buy affordable housing, and the ** of affordable housing will be lower than that of surrounding commercial housing**. Therefore, it is recommended that young families who need to buy a house can wait for a while, and when a large number of affordable housing enters the market, they can buy affordable housing, so that the cost of buying a house will be greatly reduced.
Third, there are different bubbles in major cities in China. For example, the ratio of housing prices to income in second- and third-tier cities is 20-25, which means that ordinary people can only buy a house after 20-25 years of work. The ratio of housing prices to income in first-tier cities is more than 50-60, which means that ordinary families can only buy houses after working years.
Moreover, the housing prices of cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen rank among the top 5 in the world. Therefore, even if the bailout is good, it can only avoid the short-term fluctuations in housing prices, and it is difficult to change the general trend of real estate market adjustment. Therefore, if "buying a house as soon as possible" is likely to become a "pick-up man" for high housing prices now, it is more beneficial for buyers to "wait a little longer".