Recently, the Philippine "Manila Times" reported that a large-scale naval replenishment military exercise took place in the country. On 2 February, the Philippine patrol boats "Kabra" and "Sindangan" successfully escorted a supply ship to provide food and daily necessities to the beached "Sierra Madre" at Ren'ai Jiao. The replenishment operation was very successful, with no interference from the Chinese Coast Guard, unlike previous interdictions on the sea.
It is worth mentioning that this time, the Chinese sea ** submarine adopted a completely different tactic from the past in this supplementary mission. If it had been before, it would have been possible for Philippine ships to be directly interfered with by Chinese cruisers and would not have been able to supply them smoothly. However, this time it was a different matter, and the Philippine ships were not hindered. The Chinese cruiser's response to the matter was that they were "tracking and monitoring", that is, they were aware of all the replenishment processes and that they were doing so within the limits of laws and regulations.
The strategic change may be related to the maritime exchange signed between Shanghai and Shanghai in January. On this basis, there are some agreements between the two countries, such as the need for the Philippines to inform China of the time, route, quantity, and type of supply before supplying. In this case, it is very likely that China** will stop intercepting these ships that only transport essential goods.
On the other hand, the accident also demonstrates the resilience and humanistic care shown by China's maritime patrol vessels in dealing with similar problems. China has monitored this and asked the Philippines to provide daily necessities instead of controversial building materials or other raw materials. It is likely that the basis for the change in US strategy is to maintain regional stability and avoid unnecessary contradictions.
However, there are some contradictions in the Philippine approach. Although there is a certain understanding with China, some of the actions of the Philippines are still shocking. For example, on January 21, the Philippines sent a small warplane to evade the Chinese Coast Guard and drop supplies on a ship at Second Thomas Shoal. In addition, on January 28, a Filipino entered China's Huangyan Islands illegally, and although they were eventually expelled, this also shows that the Philippine side has not always adhered to the agreement. In just 10 days, three cases of ** and provocations in the Philippines show that it is not just used for transporting everyday items.
From a historical point of view, the Philippines was anxious to deliver supplies to "Sierra Madre" because the vessel had been illegally "beached" at Second Thomas Shoal for 25 years, and was subject to waves and storms for many years, and was in danger of being dismantled. The Philippines has tried to justify its claim to the reef by transporting construction materials to repair and strengthen its building materials to increase its lifespan. However, due to the complete blockade of Chinese maritime patrol vessels, it is not practical to transport construction materials, so the Philippines turned to transporting household items in order to maintain contact with the landing vessel.
While there is some consensus on the controversy, we still need to be vigilant given the Philippines' past performance. In order to transport the best goods of the "Sierra Madre," the Philippines did not hesitate to use various methods, such as escorting the "Madre Boat" by sea guard, airlifting, or directly leasing civilian vessels, to show its confidence in maintaining this "landing craft." Although both parties agreed, it is better to be cautious when facing a person with low reputation.
As far as I am concerned, this incident reflects the complexity of the geography of the South China Sea issue and the fragility of the checks and balances of power. The recent attitude of China and the Philippines towards Second Thomas Jiao shows that the two countries have reached agreement on a number of issues, which is a good sign. However, the move also reflects the long-standing strategic differences between the two sides on the South China Sea issue, especially the difficulty in building mutual trust between the two sides. This incident is a wake-up call to us that although the current situation in the South China Sea has improved, in order to achieve lasting peace and stability, the two sides need to enhance mutual understanding through diplomatic means.