The emotional cycle has a greater impact on ** investments, but less on long-term investments. In a bull market, investors need to stay calm and not blindly chase higher; In a bear market, you need to be patient and wait for the right time to enter the market.
We should have the courage to learn, maintain a stable mentality, and allocate funds reasonably. It is a long-term process that requires patience and perseverance.
No one can take a chance every time, and it's okay to give up some opportunities if necessary.
The core of super ** lies in understanding the cyclical evolution of the words "money-making effect" and "money-losing effect" of human nature.
In order to better judge the trend of the market, we have introduced concepts such as theme cycle, emotional cycle, and ecological cycle, which are all to better quantitatively analyze the changes in the market.
The daily review and monitoring is to follow the rhythm of the market and understand the changes in the market.
How long will the next bull run be?
Feature 1:**Fall out of the three bottoms (valuation bottom, policy bottom, market bottom).
* If you want to usher in a bull market, you must end the bear market, and the bottom of the valuation, policy, and market is also based on falling rather than rising; The valuation bottom is when it falls out of the historical low, and the stage of value investment is the valuation bottom, similar to the A** earnings ratio between 10 times and 13 times; The bottom of the policy is when the first day after a sharp fall, at a certain point or in a certain region, there are different policies to stimulate, stabilize, and suppress the space is the bottom of the policy, similar to 2449 points in A shares is the bottom of the policy; The bottom of the market is often the last, that is, when the bottom of the market falls, the bottom of the policy will fall out of the bottom of the market again, and the most obvious standard after the bottom of the market is the continuous volume of the big yang uprooted, and the reversal signal is the bottom of the market, similar to the bottom of the a** field has not yet appeared.
Feature 2:**Average P/E ratios of 10x to 13x will lead to a bullish market
The current average price-to-earnings ratio of the A** market is 1295 times, that is, at the lowest level in history, A-shares have been shown to be very cheap and have investment value stage; The current A** earnings ratio is at 1295 times has fallen below the historical bottom of 998 points 15 times the P/E ratio, fell below the historical bottom of 1664 points 14 times the P/E ratio, but has not fallen below the historical bottom of 1849 points 10 times the P/E ratio; However, at present, it has fallen below the historical bottom price-earnings ratio twice, and the valuation of 1849 points is enough to prove that the bull market of A-shares is also gradually approaching.
Feature 3:**Price-to-book ratio is at 15 times will come to the bull market
The current price-to-book ratio of A-shares is 131 times, has set the lowest price-to-book ratio level of A shares, which fully proves that A shares have been seriously over-falling, and many ** have several times the investment value; Let's take a look at the historical bottom of 2005 at 998 points, with a price-to-book ratio of 17 times, the 2008 historical bottom of 1664 points price-to-book ratio is 199 times; In 2013, the historical bottom was 1849 points, and the price-to-book ratio was 137 times; The current A** net ratio has broken the lowest level in the history of A-shares in 28 years, proving that the arrival of the A-share bull market is gradually approaching.
Feature 4:**Characteristics of secondary market performance
* When the bull market is coming, the most obvious signal is** stocks stop falling and stabilize to start over-falling**, and the stock stop falling is a signal that the bear market is about to end, ** stocks are cooperating with the heavyweight stocks to protect the disk; In addition, there is one of the most obvious signals that the previous strong stocks will make up for the fall, and the market will gradually stabilize after the junk stocks make up for the fall, which is also the standard signal that the bear market is about to end. As long as these signals appear, it means that the end of the bear market is coming, but it does not mean that the bull market will come soon, it can only be said that the bull market is getting closer and closer.
See the whole process of moving chips - * will go through four stages:
1. The process of the main chip absorption stage is the process of chip conversion. In this process, the main force is the long side, and the ** side is the short side.
Only when the low position fully completes the chip absorption, the main force will form a pull-up, thus ending the chip absorption stage. In the chip distribution chart, it is reflected in the height of the chips.
2. After the main force in the pulling stage completes the absorption, the next step is to get the best out of its cost area and open up profit margins.
In this process, the main force will use some chips to suppress the market, and at the same time undertake to sell the chips, so that most of the chips are still immovable, locked in the chip absorption stage, and other high profits.
3. After the transfer stage continues to rise, the profit margin of the main force is full, and the next step is to complete the realization of profits.
In the process of cashing out, the main force most wants someone to take over its chips, that is, **.
4. In the closing stage, the main force will fully cash in on its chips in order to attract the first entry.
The main force usually fluctuates sharply after reaching the expected target**, and in the process of adjustment, it continues to pull up the long white candle in the intraday, giving people the feeling that the pull-up ** is not over.
The high volume increased and the price fell
If the stock price is at the top of the stage at that time, the volume increase and price fall, it means that the main force has begun to ship, and the bears have increased their efforts to sell.
Due to the full wealth effect in the early stage, many investors are still actively involved in the later stage, so the trading volume at this time is often relatively large.
When the main institutions begin to sell, the stock price will inevitably fall in stages, and even begin to reverse bearish. Therefore, traders should close their positions as soon as possible.
Investment insights
Everyone has greed, and when the environment is not good and the winning rate is not high, we often find it difficult to suppress our gambling and try to make money against the trend.
However, when the stock price is taking a fast dive, the fear can make us make bad decisions on impulse, such as cutting meat at the lowest point.
Never go because you simply don't know where the bottom is.
Try not to touch the trend, especially when the trend line appears at a high level, there will often be more than 30%-50% of the trend here, because at this time it is the main downward wave.
Good endurance must be cultivated to play, which is often the difference between success and failure in an investment. Many investors do not have low analytical skills or lack of investment experience, but lack a high degree of endurance.
The above content is for reference only and is not intended as specific investment advice