Today, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index are both ** again: the Shanghai Composite Index ** is 148%, Shenzhen Cheng refers to ** 195%, of which the Shanghai Composite Index is three consecutive negatives, and all of them opened with a gap low, and the Shenzhen Component Index hit a new low of 8208 this year44 points, this point has fallen to a new low since March 2019! It's basically back to five years ago.
Today's ** has nothing to do with me at all! Because I have always been bearish recently, and I have been criticizing the new measure to restrict securities lending, which is not good at all, I advise everyone not to misunderstand and mistake the negative for the good. As a result, my article yesterday was crazy because of this, not only did the article fly into the sky, but the first trumpet was also restricted from updating for two weeks.
Okay, let's all take a look: I'm not empty, I'm silent, I don't communicate with anyone about the negative view of the market, will the market be ** because of this? My judgment is obviously not, if I can have such a ability - I say that the bears can affect the market**, I say that the bulls can affect the market**, then I would have taken a spaceship with the American billionaire Bezos to travel in space! Looking at the boundless sky, it's hard to look at the boring computer all day long in the snail house?
Sure enough, today is still in **, and the CSI 500 fell more than yesterday, although the decline of other indices has decreased slightly, but it is also a new weekly low, a new low of the year, how to explain this? Because I estimate that yesterday was definitely not my bearish account, it is estimated that many numbers are bearish, and it is estimated that these numbers will also be restricted, that is to say, from yesterday to this morning, when the market opened, basically the bearish remarks were eliminated, why is it still falling today.
In fact, this approach is very naïve. Did I say it will rain tomorrow, and you don't want it to rain, and if you ban my number, it will really not rain tomorrow? It's going to rain and the mother is going to get married, this kind of thing can't be changed by anyone who says more or less, it must have a strong internal motivation.
Restricting securities lending is equivalent to depriving institutions of their tools to hedge risks, so the only way to reduce risks is to reduce **, and the only way to reduce ** is to sell. And with the sudden increase in selling orders, there is no need to say what the result of the market is, right?
In fact, even if it is the market, if investors can make money in the market, everyone will not care too much about whether the market rises or falls. In the United States, for example, those who are bearish on Tesla have made a fortune this year, and statistics show that as of January 26 this year, investors who are bearish on Tesla have made a fortune of 34500 million yuan.
If all investors are fair in terms of securities lending, it is estimated that the market's perception of securities borrowing and lending will change. One of the reasons why our securities lending policy has aroused great discussion is that its cost is too high, and the market must borrow securities through a refinancing company, which must add a handling fee since it exists. In addition, because not all investors are eligible for securities lending, there is an unfair phenomenon: some people can use securities borrowing and lending to hedge the risk of the market, but the risk of the majority of ** is completely exposed, and there is no tool to hedge against it. So this is also an important reason why it has encountered strong opposition.
If you have to make a fuss about reducing the number of sells, then the most effective way is to screw the main water pipe, that is, no new ones can be sold.
Before, I have written two articles in a row, questioning where the money went, and today I saw a statistical table, written by an Internet big V, ** as follows. Although it is not known whether the data is completely correct in this table (after checking some of the data, the data on the issuance of new shares and the refinancing of listed companies are basically accurate), but at least the accounting subjects listed by others are true.
Let's take a look: This table is the statistics of the past 8 years:
Stamp duty went 152 trillion yuan, ** company's handling fee is charged 182 trillion yuan, and the issuance of new shares took 28.3 billion yuan, and the major shareholder ** took 325 trillion yuan, listed companies fixed increase, allotment of shares to take 97 trillion yuan. The above five items are added together to take a total of 1912 trillion yuan. This person still missed the same thing, then the money taken away from the issuance of convertible bonds, most of this money was eventually converted into ** or the money of investors in the secondary market, plus this money, a total of 1 in 8 years32 trillion yuan, ** the market has taken 20 from investors in the past 8 years4.4 billion yuan.
The dividends, according to the authoritative data of the Securities Regulatory Commission, have been distributed in the past five years400 million yuan, then according to this calculation, the dividend in the past 8 years is 13400 million yuan, taking into account the 20% tax to be paid, then the investor can get back only 10 percent of the money in the past 8 years7.5 billion yuan! This means that the average loss of investors over 8 years is almost 50%!
Therefore, according to the calculation of the amount of funds, if the average price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2015 is about 4000 points, then 8 years later, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index should return to 2000 points is reasonable, considering that there are always new stocks listed to pull up the index, assuming that the new stock can contribute 20% of the strength of the stock index, then 2400 points seems reasonable (the year ** segment is also 2400 points), considering the current more pessimistic sentiment, the Shanghai Stock Exchange may be lower than in 2015, Then 2200 points may be a reasonable point.
Whether it is ** or other, in the case of limited resources, if you want to be big, especially in the short term, then it is almost impossible to be strong.