About 70% of the income of the vast majority of commercial banks in China comes from the interest rate difference between deposits and loans, so if we observe whether there are any important changes in the interest rate difference between deposits and loans over a period of time, we can see whether there is a change in the main income of the banking industry and whether there is a change in the corresponding profit margin.
Usually when we talk about the interest rate reduction policy, we will default to the deposit and loan interest rates falling at the same time, the same range, if so, then the deposit and loan interest rate difference obtained by the bank will not change, at this time, it can be considered that the interest rate reduction policy has no impact on the main income of the bank.
Moreover, due to the interest rate cut, it is possible to stimulate the increase of loans, which is conducive to the increase of bank income; Of course, it is also necessary to consider that due to the reduction of deposit interest, there may be more people who are reluctant to deposit, but use their money to buy bonds, ** or direct investment**, which will cause the number of bank deposits to decline, thereby limiting the increase in the number of loans, which will have a certain impact on the bank's income.
In fact, in addition to the simultaneous and simultaneous decline in deposit and loan interest rates, there are often asymmetric interest rate cuts in the benchmark interest rates of deposits and loans, which are divided into two situations:
The first situation is that the benchmark interest rate of loans has fallen, but the benchmark interest rate of deposits has not fallen, or the decline is smaller, at this time, the interest spread between deposits and loans of the bank will be narrowed, which will affect the main income of the bank; Of course, the benefit may be that because the interest rate on deposits has not fallen too much, it will not affect the number of deposits, and because the interest rate on loans has fallen more, it may stimulate the increase in loans, so as to make up for the loss of interest rate difference through more loan business volume.
In the second case, if the benchmark deposit interest rate falls, but the benchmark loan interest rate does not fall or the decline is smaller, the bank's deposits may decrease due to the decrease in the deposit interest rate, while the loan interest rate does not change or changes very little, making it difficult to stimulate the increase in loans, and the result is that the main income of the bank will be significantly affected.
In addition to the above basic situation analysis, it is also necessary to consider that commercial banks currently have a certain degree of autonomy in loan and deposit interest rates, that is, the deposit interest rate is not lower than the benchmark interest rate given by the central bank, and can be moderately raised, so as to attract more deposits; At the same time, the loan interest rate is not higher than the benchmark interest rate given by the central bank, and it can be moderately lowered to attract more loans.
Therefore, the best way is to carefully look at the deposit and loan interest spreads announced by banks over a period of time, as well as the corresponding deposit and loan volumes, so as to compare yourself with yourself to see whether the net interest margin has narrowed and whether the number of loans has increased, which is more valuable than simply asking what impact the interest rate cut has on the bank's revenue and profit.