February**Dynamic Incentive Plan Time enters February 2024, and the Russian-Ukrainian war has been fought for two years. As of now, both sides are exhausted, and both Russia and Ukraine are experiencing a weak war. However, the war is still not over, the Russian-Ukrainian war is about to enter its third year, and a question arises, in 2024, will the Russian-Ukrainian war end? The author believes that in 2024, the end of the war is unlikely, and there will be no winners, either for Russia or Ukraine. Because, both sides are on top of the chess game.
In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war broke out. After the outbreak of the war, the development of the war exceeded many people's expectations. At first, the author thought that the war would end in two months. This is because the Russian army has an absolute advantage in the number of equipment, and both Russia and Ukraine are former Soviet Union member states, so they know the tactics and tactics of both sides. However, war expectations exceeded most people's expectations. Ukraine withstood Russian imports, even exceeding the expectations of European and American countries.
Subsequently, a series of assistance from European and American countries began rapidly, including first-class equipment, materials and equipment, logistics equipment and so on. Of course, due to a series of factors such as two rounds of military reform, insufficient costs, and scientific and technological restrictions, in 2022, after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian army, navy and air force will have a serious shortage of modernization. For example, the Su-35 was shot down one after another, the cruiser Moskva was sunk, and various mothballed tanks were rediscovered.
The author believes that both Russia and Ukraine are on the chess game, and after Russia launches the war, when the war will end is beyond Russia's capabilities. Because behind Ukraine, there is a steady stream of aid from European and American countries. The United States, in particular, is a win-win. First, use the war in Ukraine to deplete Russia's national strength and vitality step by step. Second, taking advantage of the lack of oil and gas resources in European countries, the United States quickly "harvested Europe" after cutting off imports from Russia.
At the same time, many European companies are overwhelmed by such a situation and have moved to the United States, Asia-Pacific and other places to invest and build factories. On February 15, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced that the losses of Russian troops in the "special military operation" had exceeded 400,000. There is currently a great deal of controversy about the authenticity of this data. However, there is no doubt that in the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Russian army did suffer heavy losses.
Especially after entering the second half of 2023, the Russian-Ukrainian war has to a large extent developed into "trench warfare in the 21st century in the cloak of modern technology." "Neither Russia nor Ukraine can afford to wage a campaign of medium scale or more. Both sides can only engage in small and medium-sized battles, and at the same time, abandon some secondary positions or objectives. The development of the war, very similar to the situation in the First World War, especially after 1916, was very similar.
The two sides have shown war fatigue and are unable to strike at each other, and the war has entered the stage of fighting for attrition. In terms of national strength, Ukraine is obviously inferior to Russia, but the assistance of European and American countries has become the main one. For example, Europe's 50 billion euros and the United States' $60 billion aid plan, judging from the large-scale aid from Europe and the United States, it is clear that it is hoped that Ukraine will continue to consume with Russia for a long time.
For Europe and the United States, Russia and Ukraine are on top of the chess game. For Ukraine, there is no way back. If the war is lost, then a large amount of land will definitely be lost, and at the same time, various "commitment agreements" will need to be signed. For Russia, it is equally difficult to ride a tiger. Attack, there is no strength. Retreat is impossible. Once Russia withdraws its troops, it will have a major impact on the morale of the military, the confidence of the people, the image at home and abroad, and the stability of the basic market.
Therefore, neither Russia nor Ukraine can afford to lose. Since neither side can afford to lose, then it can only fight for a long time, and it is impossible to achieve a quick victory. Once the war enters a situation of a long-term war of attrition, it will be a great torment for both Russia and Ukraine, and even for each neutral country and third party. Because no one knows whether they will win or lose, but they don't know when the war will end. Even the highest command level can only dispatch troops according to the situation on the battlefield, but cannot decide the time of the war.
In the Crimean War of 1853, for example, Britain, France, Turkey and Russia entered into a long war. With the plan for a quick victory bankrupt, the two sides are completely locked in a war of attrition. The war lasted for more than three years, and in the middle and late stages of the war, it cast a great shadow on the officers and soldiers and people of various countries. At the same time, in a war of attrition, logistical material support, battlefield medical level, domestic industrial production capacity, raw material security, bereavement of first-class officers and soldiers, and the confidence of the domestic people are all great tests.
So, at this stage, who is better between Russia and Ukraine? I believe that everyone has a scale in their hearts. From the current situation, Russia can no longer withdraw halfway, so it can only grit its teeth and hold on. In the two years since the outbreak of the war, Russia's traditional spheres of influence in Central Asia, the Far East, and the Caucasus have obviously been inadequate, and it has no choice but to "use its strength" to "leverage its strength" because of the influence of the third country, the fourth country, and even the foreign powers.
The ** equipment of both Russia and Ukraine cannot support a quick victory, and even if the F16 arrives in Ukraine, it will not be able to change the development of the war at all. In the Russian-Ukrainian war, many countries chose neutrality, such as South Asian countries and East Asian powers. Therefore, the big countries in East Asia and South Asia have chosen neutrality, on the one hand, they maintain normal business exchanges such as import and export with Russia and Ukraine, and on the other hand, they will never export to any side**.
Once you yourself are involved in this war, then the impact is too great. Judging from the current development of the war, in 2024, Russia and Ukraine will still be in a situation of continuous attrition, and it is difficult to see a turnaround in the war in 2024. Until one of them, completely exhausted, the frame collapsed. Of course, even the victorious side received little benefit, leaving behind endless ruins and orphans and widows.
Once you are in the chess game, how to play, how to go, and how to end it are already beyond your ability. Especially when neither side can afford to lose, it is even more unlikely that it will end quickly. Therefore, the Russian-Ukrainian war will be difficult to end in 2024. Unless, one of the two sides has a "quick win or quick defeat" condition. At this stage, the war will continue.
The beacon fire burns endlessly, and the battle is endless. Dead in field fighting, defeated horses, and the trumpet sounded to the heavens. The black kite pecks at people's intestines and flies on the dead branches. The soldier is reckless, and the general is the ......The remnants of the army are left in ruins, the thin horses lie in empty trenches, the village is depressed, and the city is facing the sunset road......There are many healthy and few in the border cities, and there are many widows in the inner houses.
There are a lot of questions about the development of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The author will talk to you slowly in future articles.