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Lithium mines: Lithium miners are pessimistic, and lithium mines continue to be conducted
Lithium prices continued to fall during the month, and under the market that continued to operate weakly, lithium miners were pessimistic and less willing to ship. The pessimism of the lithium salt market continues, which further drives the lithium mine and is expected to run weakly in the short term.
Lithium salt: The market transaction remained wait-and-see, and the lithium salt narrowed the decline
Lithium carbonate gradually narrowed in the month, the circulation of industrial carbon was looser than that of electric carbon, and the market trading interest was low. At present, most of the large lithium salt smelting plants maintain normal production, and the small lithium salt factories in Jiangxi Province have successively reduced production and stopped production after not receiving OEM orders in December. On the demand side, the operating rate of the downstream of iron and lithium has been greatly reduced, the terminal has been destocked, the bearish sentiment continues, and the transaction is deadlocked. It is expected that lithium salt** will maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term.
1.1 Mainstream breeds**
Hot concerns
1. Pay attention to lithium mine trading and lithium salt plant production.
Part 2 Lithium salts
2.1 Analysis
Lithium Mine:Lithium mine **continued** in December 2023. Australian spodumene 55-6.5% concentrate reported 1200-1400 yuan tonn; Zimbabwe spodumene 40-4.5% concentrate reported 1200-1300 yuan tonn; Nigerian spodumene 20-2.5% raw ore reported 700-800 yuan tonnage; Spodumene 40-4.5% raw ore reported 1100-1200 yuan tonnage. During the month, the Australian concentrate spot was larger, because some domestic merchants drove the Australian lithium concentrate according to the domestic port African spot. At present, almost all the operations of the local receiving team in Africa have stopped, and lithium mines at home and abroad have reduced and stopped production to varying degrees, the overall operating rate is low, and the trend of lithium mines is weak.
Lithium salts:In December 2023, lithium salt** decreased slightly by 114-1.270,000 yuan. Compared to the previous month**1099%-11.27%。At present, battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 93-10.10,000 tons, down 1 month from the same period last yearabout 20,000 yuan; Industrial-grade lithium carbonate reported 86-9.20,000 tons, down 1 month-on-monthabout 10,000 yuan; Battery-grade lithium hydroxide reported 82-8.80,000 tons, down 1 percent month-on-month940,000 yuan; Industrial-grade lithium hydroxide reported 76-8.20,000 tons, down 1 month-on-month720,000 yuan; Downstream demand has not stabilized, the market is still wait-and-see, some holders seek shipments, lithium salt plants are reluctant to ship at low prices, resulting in individual manufacturers entering the passive base stage, the month is mainly to consume inventory, the overall output of the end of the end of the slight decline, still in a weak state of supply and demand, lithium salt ** fell slightly, lithium carbonate ** is expected to run weakly in January.
Cost profit
Lithium carbonate:In December, spodumene concentrate 6% CIF** fell to $1,060 tons, down $990 from November, battery-grade lithium carbonate continued, the onshore RMB exchange rate was small, and the cost of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Australian spodumene concentrate was at 10About 930,000 tons, down from the middle of the previous month, the spot profit was 9,161 yuan.
The cost of lithium extraction from Qinghai salt lake is currently concentrated in 30-4.50,000 tons, the profit is considerable, but the current demand has not improved, lithium prices continue to fall, lithium salt shipments are blocked, and some lithium salt plants that purchase brine are facing losses, and production profits have dropped to about 50,000 yuan.
Import and export analysis
Spodumene Imports:China's lithium ore import volume in November 2023 was 37080,000 tons, a decrease of 1921%, a year-on-year decrease of 1227%。Of which 21 are imported from Australia110,000 tons, a decrease of 39% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 293%。Imported from Brazil3700,000 tons, an increase of 293 from the previous month9%, a year-on-year decrease of 45%。
From January to November 2023, China's lithium ore import volume was 399220,000 tons, an increase of 533%。Of these, 318 were imported from Australia700,000 tons, an increase of 38 percent year-on-year6% and 15% imported from Brazil960,000 tons, an increase of 324%。In addition, 20200,000 tons, an increase of 249 year-on-year7% and 29% imported from Zimbabwe650,000 tons, an increase of 767 percent year-on-year7%。
Import and export analysis
Lithium carbonate imports:China's lithium carbonate import volume in November 2023 is 1700,000 tons, an increase of 583%, an increase of 37 year-on-year3%。Of which 1 is imported from Chile590,000 tons, an increase of 760%, an increase of 40 year-on-year9%。Imports from Argentina were 908 tons, a decrease of 43 from the previous month5%, a year-on-year decrease of 66%。
From January to November 2023, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 13840,000 tons, an increase of 10 percent year-on-year5%。Of these, 12 were imported from Chile140,000 tons, an increase of 78%, imported from Argentina 1530,000 tons, an increase of 374%。
Lithium carbonate exports:China's lithium carbonate exports in November 2023 were 396 tons, an increase of 248%, a year-on-year decrease of 615%。Its first export to South Korea was 64 tons, an increase of 1486 from the previous month5%, a year-on-year decrease of 833%。Exports to Japan were 233 tons, a decrease of 8 from the previous month8%, a year-on-year decrease of 624%。
From January to November 2023, China's lithium carbonate export volume was 9,286 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26%。Its first export to South Korea was 5,001 tons, an increase of 21 year-on-year0%；Exports to Japan were 2,744 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 409%。
Import and export analysis
Lithium hydroxide imports:China's lithium hydroxide imports in November 2023 were 674 tons, an increase of 1553%, a year-on-year decrease of 774%。
From January to November 2023, China's lithium hydroxide imports were 2,966 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 07%。
Lithium hydroxideExport:In November 2023, China's lithium hydroxide export volume was 1530,000 tons, an increase of 492%, an increase of 72 year-on-year5%。Its ** mouth to South Korea 1210,000 tons, an increase of 922%, an increase of 111 year-on-year6%。Exports to Japan were 2,531 tons, a decrease of 8 from the previous month0%, an increase of 12 year-on-year7%。
From January to November 2023, China's lithium hydroxide export volume is 11760,000 tons, an increase of 390%。Its ** mouth to South Korea 8400,000 tons, an increase of 569%, exported to Japan 2880,000 tons, an increase of 08%。
2.4 Yield analysis
Lithium carbonate:In December 2023, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 3630,000 tons, down 02%。This month, the output in Sichuan was basically stable, without obvious fluctuations, some of the terminal foundry smelters in Jiangxi have decreased, and the output in Qinghai has decreased due to the decrease in temperature, and the increase in some purification processing plants in other regions, overall, the output in December has decreased slightly.
The estimated domestic lithium carbonate production in January 2024 is 400,000 tons, about 4% month-on-month. This month, Ganglian will add new research samples, and the output of the internal test version will be announced to the public. Due to the reduction of downstream orders and the Spring Festival holiday, some manufacturers may choose to overhaul and stop production, due to the cost inversion, the difficulty in purchasing low-priced raw materials, the production is expected to be reduced, and on the whole, the output in January has declined compared with the previous month.
Lithium hydroxideIn December 2023, the output of lithium hydroxide from major manufacturers in China was about 2030,000 tons, month-on-month **48%, mainly due to the fact that lithium hydroxide ** has fallen all the way, manufacturers have a low start of lithium hydroxide, and the market purchase remains cautious and wait-and-see.
China's estimated lithium hydroxide production in January 2024 is 1910,000 tons, down 59%, expected to overhaul the production equipment before the holiday, superimposed on the continued weakness of ternary demand, resulting in a decline in production in January.
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