Text|Du Yifan, edHalf comb
Compared with the boom at the beginning of the year, looking at the fourth quarter solvency reports of non-listed life insurance companies, the results do not seem to be as pessimistic as imagined at the beginning of the year, and there is even a hint of joy.
The industry's premiums achieved double-digit growth, total assets increased, ** people decreased by less than 20% year-on-year, and manpower even showed a positive month-on-month growth ...... in November
The bigger surprise is the investment income in the fourth quarter, which really made too many companies breathe a sigh of relief, swept away the "entanglement" of the first three quarters, and realized the joy and sorrow from big losses to loss reduction, small losses and even small profits.
Back to the reality of the business, although with 3The 5% product speculation and suspension of sales have made the operating data of too many enterprises red across the board, and the premium income in 2023 will increase by 10 percentage points year-on-year under multiple calibers; The premium paid by the bancassurance period has also increased rapidly, but the difference in the high fee of the channel has finally surfaced.
According to the statistics of "Today's Insurance", the total loss of the 60 non-listed life insurance companies that released the quarterly report still exceeded 10 billion - 14 billion.
This number is likely to widen further, given the fact that a number of problematic companies have not disclosed quarterly reports and the pressure on the life insurance industry from the 750-day moving average Treasury yield curve, especially for companies with historically optimistic actuarial assumptions.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the face of the two deadly figures of solvency and net assets, and there are not a few people who are under pressure and decreasing.
With the release of the 2023 quarterly reports of various insurance companies, it is also the time for the annual business portrait to be concretized. What was the year going on? Are the concerns of the industry really resolved? What are the implications for a more cautious 2024?
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Behind the double-digit growth in premiums
13 companies have negative growth, and the number of ** people is approaching the inflection point
The full-year data for 2023 has already been released, and the premium income of each company has relied on the surge at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, and the premium income has been put on the platform again. Multiple data sources point to 2023 as a year of "big wins":
According to the data disclosed by the State Administration of Financial Regulation, according to a comparable caliber, the industry will achieve 3,537.9 billion yuan in original insurance premium income in 2023, a year-on-year increase of +1025%, compared to +2The previous value of 78% has increased significantly.
According to another industry data, the life insurance industry will achieve original insurance premiums of more than 3.7 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1000%, the growth rate has basically returned to the level of 2019.
According to the companies that have disclosed their solvency reports for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the listed companies that have disclosed their premium data, 72 life insurance companies have achieved a total of 30,076 insurance business income3.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +824%。Among them, 8 have premiums exceeding 100 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that there are 31 companies with a premium growth rate of 35% of products were speculated and suspended, and with the blessing of the "good situation", they still failed to outperform the market growth rate (+10.).25%), and 13 companies experienced negative growth. This situation can be explained by product structure adjustment, futures transformation and forward-looking market layout?
In addition, combined with "the total premium income of the whole industry is about 3.7 trillion yuan" and "the premium income of the above 72 companies is 300763.5 billion yuan" can be inferred that 16 companies that have not yet disclosed or not disclosed relevant premium income data, including Ruizhong, Zhonghui, Dajia, Haigang, etc., as well as AIA, which is not consistent with the style of these companies, will achieve a total premium income of about 700 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase or about +12%, exceeding the market level.
From the perspective of new orders, in 2023, the whole industry will achieve new policy premiums of more than 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 16%, sweeping away the haze of growth in the past few years.
From the perspective of various channels, the growth rate of new policy premiums in intermediary channels will be faster in 2023. In fact, intermediaries have maintained a relatively fast growth rate since 2021. However, if we look at it in the long run, we also see that intermediaries, as the "new generation" channel after individual insurance and bancassurance, also have greater volatilityThat is, the channel looks "hard", but at the same time it is also "brittle".
Considering the regulatory logic of "integration of newspapers and banks", it is really a bit difficult to say whether the intermediary channels in 2024 will be "spring breeze and horseshoe disease" or "boundless falling wood".
It's also hard to talk about, and there is a "bottom" of a dangerous person. Although in the context of the "good start" increase, the number of ** people in November 2023 showed a slight positive month-on-month growth, but in December it quickly turned down, and the month-on-month comparison still did not stabilize.
At the end of 2023, the number of first-class people in the industry has almost fallen below the 2.8 million mark, a year-on-year increase of -19 from 3.4 million a year ago5%。
However, the good news is that the rate of decline has slowed down across the board, after so many years of so-called emptiness, the stock of ** people is still stable, combined with the substantial increase in the production capacity of their own ** people that insurance companies have advertised, it may have reached the moment when the transformation of ** people has become more and more significant.
With a force of 2.8 million people, it is clear that there are already a considerable number of them with real combat effectiveness.
According to market observations,The activity rate of some insurance companies in first-tier cities has reached about 30%.Even if the company is not good at personal insurance, the activity rate of the team can reach the level of 10%.
Especially on the increase side, a consensus has been formed to "recruit high-quality and suitable people", and they have focused on high-quality groups such as "big factories" and "full-time wives".
For example, through the constellations, eight characters, I Ching, spirituality and other specific groups of people, we will continue to enrich the scenes of increasing staff and new customers, and enhance the recognition of the company and the industry by the target of the increase.
This is obviously a change in 2023.
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The investment income of 2023 that has turned red
A magical fourth quarter saved the full-year results
What is the investment income in 2023?
As the largest profit** of domestic life insurance companies - interest rate spread, 2023 is quite worrying for the industry. Judging from the 61 companies that disclosed relevant data:
Let's take a look at the median investment return in 2023 - 362%, up from 4.2 in 202209% down only about 047 percentage points.
Among them, only 3 companies have a negative return on investment, 38 companies will have a lower investment return rate in 2023 than in 2022, and 4 companies will decline by more than 3 percentage points.
Looking at the 61 companies, the return on investment can be "tied" by 35% - as many as 32 companies, a decrease of 7 from 2022; There are 4 investment assumptions that can "flat" 5%, a decrease of 6 from 2022.
In terms of comprehensive income, it is very different from investment income. Even though the median comprehensive investment return is 379%, which is not far from the return on investment, but the median in 2022 is only 188%, an increase of 191 percentage points; Compared with 2022, only 3 companies have declined, which is completely different from the situation where the return on investment has fallen by more than 6%.
It is worth paying attention to,The two yields of some companies show a trend of "two days", which may be related to the change in the accounting measurement method of investment assets.
It can also be seen that the last few days of the fourth quarter have brought a touch of warmth to 2023 to a certain extent. This can be seen through the proportion of fourth-quarter profits and full-year profits, and a considerable number of companies have a higher proportion of profits and loss reduction contributions in the fourth quarter. This is especially important for companies that are in the break-even line.
In 2023, the new disclosure information indicator - the return on investment in the past three years may tell more questions. During this period, most of the top companies are small and medium-sized companies, which has a certain relationship with their smaller plates and shorter business cycles.
On the other hand, companies with relatively stable long-term performance in the market have a majority of investment yields of around 5%, which is not very high, but very stable.
Of course, this is not to say that the rate of return is not important, but as a long-term investment, life insurance companies are not ** companies, doing long-term business, not short-term bands, and are going through the cycle, rather than "stopping" in the cycle.
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A business test paper thanks to 18.5 billion
A group of good students landed in the top 10 of the loss list
From the observation of the solvency report, it can be seen that the liability side is facing future pressure, and the investment side is facing current pressure, which is concentrated on profit performance.
Looking at the net profit disclosed by 60 companies, not only did it fail to make people's eyes shine, but it was cold in my heart. After knocking the "sum()" function, -142The figure of 3.5 billion yuan is impressively presented.
This is more than 185 compared to 2022100 million yuan. Among them, the net profit of 34 companies deteriorated compared with 2022.
The 35 loss-making companies lost a total of 3271.1 billion yuan, almost compared to -166 in 20226.6 billion yuan doubled. Among them, 26 companies have lost money for two consecutive years, 13 have lost more than 500 million yuan, and 6 have lost 10 figures.
From the tracking reports of some rating agencies, it is found that individual companies still have billions of yuan of risk exposure due to stepping on non-standard real estate products, and the losses of these 62 companies may increase.
In fact, in the current environment, losses may be inevitable, most small and medium-sized companies have been established for a short time, experience and accumulation are limited, and in long-term management, losses in individual years are normal. In particular, the trend of the 750 treasury bond curve has a great impact.
On the other hand, there are not many profiteers, with a total net profit of 184 for 25 companies7.5 billion yuan, up from 209 in 20223.5 billion yuan, down 24600 million yuan. About 137 of them4.3 billion yuan was "exclusively sponsored" by Taikang, excluding Taikang, and the remaining 24 companies still made a profit of 473.2 billion yuan.
Among the many losers, it is worth noting that some long-established insurance companies, and even companies with good operating performance, have appeared in the loss list, and the loss amount is quite large.
In addition to China Post Life Insurance, which has a loss of 10 billion yuan, CCB Life Insurance of 4.2 billion yuan, two bank-based insurance companies, as well as Huatai Life Insurance, Taikang Pension, CITIC Prudential, etc., are all well-known insurance companies, especially the profitability of the latter two has been good.
For example, CITIC Prudential still has 28 in 2021With a net profit of 200 million, there will still be 11 in 2022The net profit of 7.5 billion yuan will be a loss of 8 in 20232.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 2 billion between one positive and one pair.
The same is true for the same Taikang pension, from 1075 net profit to 9A loss of 75 is a loss of 20 between a positive and a pair500 million.
Imagine that if it weren't for the efforts of A-shares in the last few days of the fourth quarter, this number would have expanded.
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The total assets and net assets are "seesawing" obviously
Forty percent of the company's net assets have shrunk, and insolvent people have been seen
Judging from the data of 60 companies, compared with the same period last year: in 2023, about 25 companies' net assets will decline year-on-year, and Ruihua Health will receive this round of "insolvency" medals.
As usual, most of the net assets shrank by small and medium-sized companies, with 15 companies shrinking by more than 20% and two by more than 70%, which can be said to have shrunk directly from L size to children's clothing.
Interestingly, while the net assets of some companies have shrunk, the total assets have maintained a rapid growth rate, and 24 of the 25 companies with declining net assets have achieved positive growth in total assets.
The decline in net assets often means that there are problems in the company's operation, such as poor management and declining profitability, which is related to the soundness of the company's operation. The most direct reason for the decline is the expansion of losses. The above-mentioned ** has already said the reasons for the decrease in the net assets of the companies in the balance sheet, and also found a footnote to the pressure on solvency.
In fact, it is not difficult to understand that the growth of total assets reflects the boom in premiums under the speculation and suspension of sales on the liability side, and the shrinkage of net assets is affected by the impact of the investment side, and some companies may be paying for the once optimistic assumptions.
If it continues, more companies will face solvency tests.
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The five AAAs are all established joint ventures
And there are 4 c+2 d=6 that do not meet the standard
Judging from the solvency adequacy ratio and risk comprehensive rating disclosed by 62 companies, 18 companies are Class A, of which 5 are AAA: Sino-British Life Insurance, Zhongyi Life Insurance, Sino-Dutch Life Insurance, Hengan Standard, and Tongfang Global, all of which are old joint ventures.
"Stability and beauty" is the characteristic of such companies, and in fact, it is also an inevitable requirement of insurance companies, after all, insurance companies themselves need "insurance" to be qualified to sell insurance.
There were a total of 6 companies whose solvency did not meet the standard, and the main reason was that the comprehensive risk rating did not meet the standard.
The solvency comprehensive rating of Huahui Life Insurance, Changsheng Life Insurance, United Life Insurance and Bohai Life Insurance is C, and the solvency comprehensive rating of Three Gorges Life Insurance and Peking University Founder is D, among which the solvency adequacy ratio of Peking University Founder that has completed the equity conversion and capital injection has turned from negative to positive.
Among the other companies, Hongkang Life Insurance did not disclose the comprehensive risk rating, and Cindat resumed the disclosure of the comprehensive risk rating after the phased results of risk disposal. Fosun United's core solvency adequacy ratio is approaching the red line of 50%, and a capital increase is imminent.
Postscript
Risk mitigation under prosperity
There are also 13 unlisted companies that have not disclosed information
In addition to the insurance companies in the listed company system, there are still 13 insurance companies that are "silent", including companies whose solvency is not up to standard, plus those whose disclosure information is incomplete, about 22 companies in the industry are in the stage of "critical" or "seriously ill".
If you look at it this way, about 1 4 life insurance companies are in the "coming and going" of life and death, but some are still alive, and some have been intubated and waiting for reincarnation.
Looking back at the ICU treatment process of the problematic company: from the initial Xinhua to the recent Xintai, the insurance protection has been shot seven times, but the "strength" seems to be "weaker" every time. Judging from the risk disposal method after Anbang, insurance protection** is no longer "reincarnated".
After all, in the process of risk resolution, no new risks can be generated, and whoever is responsible for the trouble caused by the child cannot become a "cash box" in the industry security category. In fact, compared with holes, all kinds of ** really can't be a "cash box".
According to rough statistics, among the several problematic companies that disclosed relevant information, Anbang has "spent" nearly 100 billion yuan of money since insurance protection.
According to the latest official disclosure data of insurance protection**, as of December 31, 2022 (the data for 2023 has not been updated), the balance of insurance protection** (before final settlement) is 20329.8 billion yuan, of which property insurance protection **12440.3 billion yuan, accounting for 6119%；Life Insurance Coverage**7889.5 billion yuan, accounting for 3881%。
In 2023, we will accelerate the disposal of Huaxia, Tian'an and Evergrande, support Xintai, and 788On the basis of 9.5 billion yuan, there is consumption, considering the companies that need to be rescued urgently, there is pressure.
With the tone of the first economic work conference and the first financial work conference, preventing and resolving the risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions has become one of the important tasks of the next step of supervision.
According to the understanding of "Insurance Today", some institutions have begun to reduce the value rate of increased whole life insurance products, which has shrunk the value of new business. There are also companies that cancel part of the year-end bonuses. Does this also explain from the side, it is clear that the annual tasks of many grassroots organizations and employees seem to be completed, but the performance and year-end bonuses are not only getting less and less, but also facing faster optimization, layoffs, and salary cuts.
The performance that seems to come from hard work may end up being settled at the company level, which is a pit of losses.
In fact, even in 2023, under the superficial prosperity of business performance, there is unimaginable moisture hidden, and the cost difference loss has long been the sword of Damocles in the industry, and it is getting heavier and heavier. As for the boom in incremental whole life insurance, the seeming increase in the value of new business is still a legacy between the hypothetical end and the actual trend?
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