January has come to an end, and the 2023 performance forecast of A-share listed companies has accelerated. Wind data shows that as of the press release of the Financial Investment News reporter on January 29, a total of 1,033 A-share listed companies have disclosed their 2023 performance forecasts. Among them, a total of 244 companies issued performance forecasts on January 25 and 26, 238 companies released performance forecasts on January 27, and 17 companies also released performance forecasts on January 29.
Financial Investment News reporter Liu Min
From the perspective of the type of performance forecast, there are 371 listed companies with a performance increase in 2023, 107 companies with a slight increase in performance, 126 companies have achieved a turnaround, and 12 companies have continued to make profits, and the overall performance "pre-gratification rate" will reach 60%. At the same time, there were 121 companies that continued to lose money, and 101 companies that lost money for the first time. There were 158 companies with a pre-reduction and 31 companies with a slight reduction. From the perspective of industry, electronics, medicine and biology, machinery and equipment, and power equipment have more companies that disclose performance forecasts.
Seven companies have a net profit of more than 10 billion
Judging from the upper limit of the net profit forecast, there are 115 listed companies that are expected to have a net profit of more than 1 billion yuan in 2023, of which 7 companies are expected to have a net profit ceiling of more than 10 billion yuan, namely Kweichow Moutai, Gree Electric Appliances, COSCO Shipping Holdings, Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway, Lixun Precision, Sungrow, and *ST Zhengbang.
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings' performance forecast shows that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023 will be about 2385.9 billion yuan, a decrease of about 7825%。As for the main reason for the expected decrease in performance, the company said that in 2023, the container shipping industry will face many challenges such as weakening transportation demand, rising capacity supply, and geopolitical tensions, and the market freight rate level will decrease significantly compared with the previous year. In 2023, the average value of China's export container freight composite index (CCFI) is 93729 points, a year-on-year decrease of 6643%。In the case of a high performance base in the same period last year, the company's container shipping business revenue decreased year-on-year during the reporting period, resulting in a decrease in the performance of the current period compared with the same period last year.
Sungrow's performance forecast shows that the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 9.3 billion yuan to 10.3 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 159% to 187%. The company said that during the reporting period, the global new energy market maintained rapid growth, and core businesses such as photovoltaic inverters, energy storage systems, and new energy investment and development achieved rapid growth. At the same time, benefiting from factors such as the appreciation of foreign currency exchange rates and the decline in sea freight in the first half of the year, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased significantly during the reporting period.
It is worth noting that *ST Zhengbang turned losses into profits, but the income was mainly due to reorganization. According to the performance forecast, *ST Zhengbang expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023 to be 8 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year; Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -7 billion yuan to -5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease in losses, while net assets turned positive.
From the point of view of losses, 21 listed companies have announced a net profit lower limit loss of more than 1 billion yuan, BAIC Blue Valley is at the bottom thanks to 5.7 billion yuan, and China Southern Airlines, Dima shares, and Chinalco International are expected to lose up to 4.7 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and 2.8 billion yuan respectively.
Cultural tourism companies led the growth rate
Judging from the upper limit of the year-on-year increase in net profit, 317 companies have doubled their net profit year-on-year, and 17 listed companies have announced a year-on-year increase in net profit of more than 10 times.
Lijiang Co., Ltd. expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023$1.5 billion to $24 billion yuan, an increase of 5735 over the same period of the previous year10% to 641360%。Lijiang Co., Ltd. said that since 2023, the tourism market has recovered rapidly, the company has seized the opportunity to actively carry out various marketing activities, and the number of tourists has rebounded significantly, and the company's three ropeways have received a total of 612 tourists100,000 person-times, a year-on-year increase of 21567%。
The lower limit of the net profit growth rate of Longxi shares and Three Gorges Tourism also reached64%。Three Gorges Tourism said that the number of tourists received by the company's core tourism products increased by 367 compared with the same period in 202208%, the scale of reception reached a record high. In addition, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Tianmu Lake and other listed cultural and tourism companies are expected to achieve a growth of more than 5 times in 2023.
The reporter of the Financial Investment News noticed that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is expected to turn losses into profits, and the net profit will return to more than 10 billion yuan. The performance forecast shows that in 2023, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 10.8 billion yuan to 12.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 195% to 2218%, and the company will lose 57.6 billion yuan. The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway said that in 2023, the domestic passenger market situation will recover significantly, the safety of the high-speed rail under the company's management will continue to be stable, and good operating performance will be achieved, and the net profit will turn from a loss to a profit compared with the same period last year.
At the same time, 21 companies expect net profit to decline by more than 10 times year-on-year in 2023. Asia-Pacific Industrial's performance forecast shows that the company expects a loss of 92 million yuan to 13.5 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 6702 compared with the same period last year08% to 978784%。As for the main reasons for the sharp decline in performance in the reporting period, the company said that first, affected by the recession of the pesticide market in 2023 and the decline in downstream customer demand, the sales of the company's main chemical products declined; Second, the company has conducted impairment tests on various assets, and made impairment provisions for related assets with signs of impairment.
Investment strategy: Focus on areas where performance exceeds expectations
In its research report, China Securities Construction Investment** pointed out that combined with the macro data of the whole year of 2023, the PMI has been declining super-seasonally for three consecutive months, verifying that the recovery of economic demand is still weak, and it is expected that the year-on-year earnings of all A in the fourth quarter are expected to achieve positive growth under the low base effect, but the improvement is limited compared with the first three quarters of 2023. Recently, the market sentiment has improved significantly due to policy support, and China Securities Construction Investment** expects that after the index stabilizes under the leadership of "Zhongzitou" and core assets, the valuation repair of A-shares is expected to be further extended, and the performance exceeds expectations and has the direction of continuous improvement momentum, or can have stronger sustainable performance.
From a structural point of view, China Securities Construction Investment said that in terms of cyclical resources, although the demand is weak, there is support on the supply side, non-ferrous metals, thermal coal, etc. Midstream manufacturing, such as steel and chemicals, is likely to remain under pressure due to demand. In terms of manufacturing, the pressure on the supply of new energy has emerged, the industrial chain has declined sharply, and the year-on-year profit is expected to generally grow negatively; The production and sales of traditional manufacturing are weak, and the high-end manufacturing direction, such as ships and heavy trucks, has performed well; Affected by price cuts, the profitability of automobiles is expected to decline from the first three quarters of 2023.
In terms of consumption, China Securities Construction Investment** said that the export performance of many varieties such as home furnishings and home appliances was stronger than domestic sales, and companies with a higher proportion of overseas business performed better; The travel chain increased year-on-year and fell month-on-month; In food and beverages, high-end liquor is expected to remain resilient, and the catering chain will benefit from a low base, but the actual economic performance is weak; The impact of anti-corruption in the pharmaceutical sector has weakened but still exists, and traditional Chinese medicine and CXO may face high base pressure. In terms of technology, demand from consumer electronics and design companies picked up in the peak season, with a month-on-month upward trend. Storage** reversed, and performance is expected to improve significantly; semiconductor equipment performance and orders maintained high growth; Large-scale shipments of optical modules are expected to be outstanding.