On the evening of January 30, SF Holdings (002352SZ) announced that it plans to repurchase shares through centralized bidding through the secondary market with its own funds of 500 million to 1 billion yuan on the basis of comprehensive consideration of business development prospects, operating conditions, financial conditions, future profitability and the company's recent performance in the secondary market. Yesterday, SF's ** price has fallen to 3441 yuan, correspondingly, the total market value of SF has also dropped to about 170 billion. Compared with the peak market value of more than 500 billion in 2021, it has shrunk by about 70% in three years.
What is the reason for the stock price**
**Overall sluggishness, **index persistence**
Over the past three years, the overall trend of China's ** has been declining, especially in the past two months, the A-share index ** is obvious, the 3000-point defense battle at the beginning of the year was lost, and recently fell below 2800.
In the overall downward environment, even the leading express delivery companies will inevitably shrink in market value. Moreover, in the entire express logistics sector, except for J&T, which has been listed on the Hong Kong stock market for more than three months, SF Express, JD.com, and most of the express delivery companies, the stock prices of express delivery companies have basically declined in the past six months.
Industry competition has escalated, and high-end market demand has shrunkIn this kind of performance and industry background, obtaining more profits and highlighting the trend of better profitability has become the first choice of express delivery companies. Correspondingly, products and businesses with higher unit prices have become the sweets of the industry.
In recent years, YTO, Zhongtong and other express companies have launched mature standard express products, and continue to make efforts, the momentum is rapid, and gradually encroach on SF's market share of time-sensitive parts.
In addition, with the popularization of electronic invoices, the market demand for commercial parts, which accounts for a high proportion of postal invoices, has shrunk, which has also severely challenged the development of the high-end express delivery market.
Performance growth has been hindered, and the return on innovation investment is too slow
According to the latest data released by the State Post Bureau, the business volume of the express delivery industry will increase by 19% year-on-year in 20234%。According to the monthly results and market research announced by each company, the highest year-on-year growth rate of business volume in 2023 is 35% for Shentong. J&T, Zhongtong and Yuantong are also more than 20%, while SF's growth rate is less than 10%. In addition, the financial report disclosed by SF Express shows that the revenue of a single ticket has also continued to decline in the past three months.
In addition, SF Express has been committed to technological innovation, such as promoting advanced technologies such as real-time tracking systems, intelligent warehousing and drones. However, these technological innovations require significant capital investment and can take a long time to see results. This makes investors doubt the future development of SF, which in turn affects the stock price.
The confidence of SF's development is in the first place
Although SF's performance is not very optimistic, SF, which has been deeply involved in the express logistics industry for 30 years, has already formed a sufficiently guaranteed moat. In addition to the infrastructure construction of the timeliness business and the brand effect that is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. SF's express, cold chain, intra-city and other ecosystems are also relatively complete, and it still has a strong ability to resist risks.
Moreover, SF's imagination in the future is also very large.
On the one hand, with years of experience in the application of logistics technology, SF Express has continuously enriched and improved its digital first-chain solutions. Actively respond to the call of the State Post Bureau to promote the work of express delivery into the factory. Take the initiative to extend the service to the production, sales, after-sales and other links of the manufacturing enterprise.
On the other hand, with the acceleration of the internationalization of express delivery, SF Express has already laid out the international market and now has nearly 100 full cargo aircraft, including air cargo hubs and cargo fleets, and has the hard power foundation of air logistics.
2024 has just begun, and with the help of this share repurchase and the hard power that has been precipitated for many years, we are looking forward to SF's next performance.