**Just like driving a sailboat, looking for the direction of the uncertainty of the wind, constantly trying, the trend of various time cycles is like the direction and level of the wind, **is the whole weather situation, if there is a storm is a huge uncertainty, you need to avoid risks in the port.
Speculation is a game of the market is more like a casino, is an uncertain market, if you want to find a certain opportunity in the uncertain market, you need to be very patient and wait for the winning rate and probability to trade when there is an advantage, which is destined not to have too many trading opportunities, so most of the time should be waiting for a short position.
* Game is your back and forth engagement, on the one hand, we have to take advantage of the opponent's opportunity to attack, but also to defend under the opponent's attack, the best defense is cash, thirty-six strategies, go for the upper count, in the face of the market and the main force of the strong advantage, we can not have information advantage and capital advantage, so the best way is the empty position, the empty position is a tough shield, can save strength on the battlefield full of arrows, waiting for the opportunity, the attack is a scimitar, no matter how fast the scimitar can not pull away all the arrows, Therefore, in the uncertain market, we must have a scimitar in our left hand and a shield in our right hand, attack when there is a favorable opportunity, and defend if there is no opportunity, and only by surviving can it make sense to kill the enemy.
There are two ways to win in the game, one is to formulate different coping strategies according to different situations, but the premise is that you want to judge the future situation very correctly before you can use the corresponding strategy, and the market is chaotic, it is almost impossible to judge the future changes in the market, so this seemingly perfect strategy has many fatal factors, the second is to only do the highest certainty strategy, other times would rather give up than blindly try, and wait for the certainty of the opportunity on the subject of certainty, so that there is double certainty, Therefore, the core of this strategy is to patiently wait for a systematic buying point to emerge before intervening.
Instead of blind trial and error. The highest level is to choose a deterministic target in a deterministic market environment and wait for a deterministic buying point to open a position! So patience and a fatal blow are the keys to winning the game! Then cooperate with the best management to leave a surplus of capital position support, one target at a time, and then open a new target after making a profit safety cushion, so that you will truly achieve stable profits! Only stable profits can exert the power of compound interest! Otherwise, there is no point in making more profits in a single time! So it's not about how high the profit is every time you attack, but whether you can not retreat or retreat less, the market is a long and short game market, the multi-party attack is completed, the counterattack of the short side is inevitable, only the short position can completely avoid the counterattack of the short side, cash is the best defense, and so the end of the short side, the long and short side enters the state, waiting for the signal of the long side to appear again, is the time to continue the attack.
How is institutional big money defended? It is definitely not a multi-portfolio to ** position, because there is a problem of large capital mobility, so you can only adhere to the inherent target, do the band sell high and buy low, and wait for the end of the ** band, and slowly make the market value up, so that there are two problems involved, if you choose this last target stock? There are two models, one is the safest target in valuation, but this is usually an unpopular stock, which takes a long time to hold in order to grow slowly, and the other way is to do the strongest in the whole market, from the order is to do the strongest target first, if you can't make a profit, retreat to the safest target in valuation, if you still can't make a profit, then the market is weaker than expected, then you need to enter the last fortress, that is, to hold cash, just like boarding Noah's Ark, waiting for the flood to recede.
The second question is how to manage the portfolio and **management, there is no doubt that the more ** in the city, the more predicament you may fall into, the more ** you hold, the more you lose, the longer you hold, the greater the magnitude of your loss, so the best way is to single the target, small **, small cycle, after the failure of the first phase of the defense, retreat into the second phase of the defense, and then increase to 50%** If it still fails, enter the third phase of the defense to completely hold cash, Wait for the storm to end.
Defensive strategy management of the city
* The upper limit of the opening day of the market does not exceed 25% of the total, and at the same time, it can only be opened with quantitative fixed investment and low absorption, and the most suitable total ** for the market is 30% of the bottom position + 30% of the mobile position, rolling operation.
The first phase of defense is to do the strongest in the entire market, from the order is to do the strongest target first, configure 30%** rolling operation, if the effect is not good, do the definitive income of the fall back support at the end of the day, so that if the small cycle position is not good, the yang line of the position is used as the stop loss to exit into the second phase of the defense.
Defend the safest target of the second phase valuation, allocate 30%** But this is usually an unpopular stock, it takes a long time to hold it to grow slowly, if it can't make a profit, it means that the market is weaker than expected, and then you need to enter the last bastion. That is, holding cash is like boarding Noah's Ark and waiting for the flood waters to recede.
The third phase of the defense completely holds cash, waiting for the end of the adjustment cycle, and needs to have an exponential daily divergence, and then resume into the second phase of the defense, which can be expanded to 50%** but is still a single target, until the **medium-term**flat, the bears turn to the **market, on the basis of the position target has enough profit safety cushion, you can open a new position, the new position enters the first phase of defense, and the configuration of 30%** so that the circular defensive process is a scientific defense.
3. Fund management
In terms of the layout of hot funds, the safest underlying stocks are 50% of the plate funds, and the most technically demonic layout is 25%.
Sector funds, 25% of the sector funds are deployed in the army.
When holding shares on a daily basis, as long as **and the plate are at the same time**, if ** is near the technical pressure level, reduce 1 3** first, and choose the opportunity to do t in the middle line.
* The total ** control of the current main line hotspot is 70%, and the total ** control of the branch relay hot spot is 30%.
*After the overfall**, it stabilized, and the sector was hot and strong.
The total ** is controlled at 70%, that is, the right side of the right side of the hot spot, and the low valuation of white horses and growth stocks that break the long-term trend line pressure level after the over-falling ** funds are opened is controlled at 30%, that is, the left side of the left side, speculation valuation, the left side ** is at least a complete bottom shape after the formation of the bullish small neckline breakout, and at the same time, the superimposed plate has a mid-line hot spot logic, ** is to determine the small trend of Bollinger homeopathy.
After a short 5-day**10** death fork, it must be mandatorily lowered**.
* pattern to maintain 30% of the medium-term long strong underlying stocks, 30%** long strong stocks, 30% cash capture intraday ** hot spots, if there is no hot spot can be in the hand in the middle line of the target to do t, the focus is that before the end of the market must reduce 30% of the cash to change cash, so as to roll the next day's hot spots.
In the event of **adjustment, **minus 30%**sector**minus 30%**break minus 30%.
The more structural, the more we must concentrate the main force of funds on the hot plate in order to make profits, so we must allocate the main line at 30% of the funds, and if we continue to be strong the next day, you can double the main line on dips, and the total size is also 30% of the main line, and maintain the allocation of 40% of the cash. The maximum number of positions to open is not more than 10% of the total**, and the number of shares is not more than 2, that is, the 5% cap of a single position, and at least half of the ** is opened at the end of the session.
The core of the portfolio is the relationship between defense and offense, cash is the shield, strong stocks are the blade, one hand is the blade, the other hand is the perfect combination, **more defense when uncertain, less offense, **more offense and less defense when determined. **Buy the strong stocks of the fall support level of the dip long, long** buyers rise to break through the strong Hengqiang.
The variety of the bull market is ** allocation, the left small neckline breaks through the long-term value growth target stock **30%, the right big neckline breaks through the strong Hengqiang market hot target stock **60%, and 10% cash intraday T to reduce the comprehensive cost.
The growth of the bullish trend is slow, and the white horse stocks and the pharmaceutical stocks in the defensive sector can replace half of the cash allocation.
Portfolio allocation.
On the left side of the left side, after the serious over-fall, the funds rushed to build a position to speculate on the valuation repair, and on the right side of the left, the small neckline broke through after the bottom of the bottom pattern was successful.
Cash and cash equivalents, defensive sectors with high liquidity and stability can be realized at any time, and if affected by the sector, they will also have a certain performance, and they will increase their value appropriately while hedging risks.
On the left side of the right, open a dip position before the pre-breakout of the big neckline.
On the right side of the right, the big neckline is officially pulled up after the end of the wash.
Fourth, the management of **
The total opening ratio of the position is superimposed on the sector and the factor, of which the sector accounts for 35% of the decision-making factor, the sector accounts for 35% of the decision-making factor, and *accounts for 30% of the decision-making factor, so when the bullish trend your basic win rate is at least greater than 70%, and when the short trend your basic win rate is only 30%, so be sure to operate with the trend.
Therefore, when **independent**, you can only open a bottom position of 10%, which can be used in the non-core speculative target of the upper plate** resonance can only open a standard position of 20% at most, and can only be used on the core target Only **plate** resonance at the same time can open a strengthened position of 30%, which can only be used in the strong offensive area of the core target.