A few days ago, the Philippine Coast Guard once again released **, accusing the Chinese coast guard of intercepting its own ship at Scarborough Shoal: "Four times dangerously crossed the bow of the ship." But before that, on February 2, Marcos Jr. and others in the Philippines publicly extended New Year greetings to the Chinese, and Mrs. Lisa also went to the Chinese Embassy to participate in the New Year reception.
Marcos Jr.'s actions seem a bit contradictory.
But if you combine the recent attitude of Biden in the United States, you can find that Marcos Jr. is basically consistent with the United States, that is, fighting against China without breaking.
The focus of the Philippine Coast Guard's harassment some time ago was on Ren'ai Jiao in the Spratlys, and it repeatedly used fleet shocks to send construction materials to the Sierra Madre landing ship. After being heavily intercepted by the Chinese coast guard, the Philippines even used airdrops.
However, after several tosses, they did not achieve their goal. Therefore, on February 11, the Philippine Coast Guard changed the location of the provocation to Scarborough Shoal in the waters of Zhongsha.
The location of Scarborough Shoal is more sensitive than Ren'ai Jiao. It is closer to the main island of the Philippines, which is Luzon. The straight-line distance to Manila, the capital of the Philippines, is only 350 kilometers. Since 2012, the Chinese coast guard has effectively controlled Scarborough Shoal, but it has not carried out the reclamation project, and the Philippines has no foothold on Scarborough Shoal.
However, Scarborough Shoal's reef conditions are very good, and the coral reef encloses a natural lagoon with an opening facing Luzon. If China were to carry out reclamation projects and build a sea and air base here, it would be like putting a sharp knife here, and it would be aimed at Subic Bay, 260 kilometers away. As a result, the most uncomfortable may not be the Philippines, but the US military.
Because of its sensitive location, the situation at Scarborough Shoal has been relatively calm in recent years. Now that the Philippines has launched a provocation, it is actually taking the initiative to escalate the situation, and I think this may play into China's hands.
With just a handful of coast guard vessels, it is certainly impossible to change China's power advantage in the Spratlys. The Philippines** has put forward two relatively large proposals. The first option was to build a new military base in the Batanes Islands, which would guard the Bass Strait, the choke point for the Chinese fleet in and out of the Pacific. If the mainland reunifies Taiwan by force and the US military is stationed at the Bataan base, it will inevitably pose a threat to us that cannot be ignored.
The second plan is large-scale armament construction, and Marcos Jr. plans to invest $36 billion over 10 years to fully purchase modern equipment, especially conventional submarines. Duterte** has already procured BrahMos supersonic missiles from India, and if it has conventional submarines, the Philippines will obviously pose a greater threat to China's navy and shipping in the South China Sea.
These two proposals sound ambitious, but overall seem unrealistic. So is this the Philippines under pressure from the United States, making a false gesture of the tiger? It seems that we should not underestimate the hegemonic way of thinking of this least developed country in Southeast Asia.
As early as the 70s of the last century, the Philippines used force to intimidate neighboring countries and unilaterally built military facilities in the Spratly Islands. At its most arrogant, the Philippines even considered an armed invasion of Malaysia and the seizure of the Sabah archipelago. Nixon** was very worried at that time, after signing a military alliance treaty with the Philippines, if the other side caused trouble and provoked a war, how would the United States respond? Therefore, at that time, Kissinger made it clear that the scope of application of the US-Philippine military alliance should not exceed the undisputed territory of the Philippines, and that no commitment could be made on the issue of disputed territory in the South China Sea.
By 2013, the Philippines was far less powerful than Malaysia. However, in the same year, 200 Filipinos forcibly landed on Sabah Island and demanded that Malaysia** leave. As a result, armed conflict broke out, and dozens of people were killed.
This unrealistic hegemonic ideology of the Philippines is not controlled by civilian officials, but is deeply rooted in the military bloc. The Philippine military has staged several coups in its history to overthrow civilian officials**. The only thing they do is the United States. If China did not have enough national prestige and military prestige here, the Philippines would have used force long ago. Now the United States hopes that the Philippines can take the initiative to provoke China, and no matter what Marcos Jr.'s attitude is, the Philippine military will be eager to try.
Of course, ambition is ambition, and the contest in the South China Sea is ultimately to speak with strength. The Philippines has messed up its economic and cooperative relations with China, and it is impossible for the United States to put the bulk of its financial aid on the Philippines. Therefore, neither the construction of the Bataan military base nor the $360 expansion plan looks very realistic.
I strongly suggest that the Philippines study the characteristics of China's actions in dealing with the sovereignty issue of islands and reefs in the South China Sea since the 70s of the last century. When the volume of things changes to a certain extent, a qualitative change will occur, and Scarborough Shoal was taken back by China in 2012 and evolved step by step, if the Philippine military does not have a long memory, then it is better to prepare for the aftermath of the other seven islands such as Thitu Island.