【Reading guide】Entering the middle of January, in the domestic agricultural products market, recently, the performance of pigs and soybean meal market is sluggish, among them, the pig market is under the pressure of consumption "downgrade" and excess, pig prices show a downward trend, as of January 10, this round of pig prices showed a "8 consecutive falls" trend, pig prices continue to adjust downward, which also exacerbates the performance of losses at the breeding end!At the same time, in the domestic soybean meal market, soybean meal performance is also relatively bleak, recently, by the weakening of the foreign soybean market, the domestic soybean meal under the pressure of excess soybean meal, spot soybean meal shows a "cliff" trend, then, what changes have occurred in the pig and soybean meal market?The specific analysis is as follows: Soybean meal**
In the soybean meal market,Entering 2024, as the weather process of precipitation in the soybean producing areas of South America has eased the market's fear of dry weather, soybean growth expectations have become stronger, and the market's expectations for a bumper soybean yield in South America have increased!In the United States, due to the continued shrinking of exports, the U.S. soybean market came under pressure, and CBOT soybeans continued to decline, falling below 1250 cents bushels to 1239 as of January 85 cents of a p.amp; f. Affected by this news, the domestic meal has also dropped sharply, and the mainstream has fallen below 3200 yuan tons!
According to the shipping schedule, the level of imported soybeans in January 2024 is still at a high level, the soybean inventory of sample oil mills has increased significantly, and the pressure of soybean meal accumulation in oil mills is greater, and some oil mills have been forced to reduce the operating rate
In terms of demand follow-up, recently, the new orders of oil mills are less, mostly based on the execution of contract orders, from the market feedback, at present, domestic oil mills, soybean meal transactions are cold, the lack of centralized stocking of the positive, in particular, the market is generally bearish about the market, the pressure of soybean meal oversupply and demand is greater, the downstream market cautious sentiment is strong, superimposed, the performance of the domestic breeding industry is sluggish, the production capacity of feed enterprises is declining, and the mainstream feed enterprises still use soybean meal alternative formula, which also reduces the consumption level of the soybean meal market!
Therefore, under the long-short game, at present, the domestic soybean meal cliff, from the perspective of coastal oil mills, at present, Shandong coastal oil mills are 3,700 yuan tons, Jiangsu oil mills are 3,690 yuan tons, Guangdong coastal oil mills are 3,710 yuan tons, and Tianjin oil mills are 3,730 yuan tons, compared with 5,000 yuan tons at the beginning of September last year, the cumulative reduction is more than 1,300 yuan tons
Today, soybean meal ** low, recently, a number of feed companies have also lowered the pig feed **, however, due to the downturn in the breeding industry, pig price performance deviation, domestic pig fattening is still facing the pressure of the first average loss of one or two hundred!
According to the analysis of institutional data, on January 10, 2024, the national ternary lean pig ** was 1369 yuan kg, down 005 yuan kg, pig prices to maintain a stable and weak trend, ** low weak pattern is more obvious!The domestic hog market generally hovers at 121~15.1 yuan kg, in the north and south regions, the pig price spread is weak, in the northeast and southwest regions, the pig price lacks obvious differences, and the Sichuan-Chongqing market ** fell to 132~13.3 yuan kilogram, while Heilongjiang ** is at 1325 yuan kg, the mismatch pressure of production and marketing is more obvious!
This pig price, I personally believe that it is mainly affected by the recent southern region, and the pig price has exceeded expectationsDue to the New Year's Day after the inertia of household consumption declined, and by the temperature warmer, the southern cured meat consumption has gradually ended, the lack of increase in pork consumption, the panic mentality of breeding end stock pig source slaughter has heated up, in particular, the market for the lack of fat pork subscription sentiment, the downstream wholesale market surplus pressure has increased sharply, and the phenomenon of some slaughterhouses stuck weight pigs is more common, which also increases the panic mentality of the main body of breeding. Superimposed, into the end of the year, the main body of mainstream breeding is facing the same financial problems, some pig enterprises are forced to speed up the pace of production capacity, staged, large-scale pig enterprises competitive slaughter is more intense, in the southern region, pig prices have fallen sharply, which also causes the lack of obvious price difference between the north and the south, and some markets have been inverted!
Judging from the market feedback, at present, some provinces and regions in the south, the phenomenon of pigs being transferred to the north has also alleviated the performance of the slaughter reduction of pigs in East China and Central China, and improved the smoothness of the purchase of pigs by slaughtering enterprises
Personally, due to the lack of good support for consumption at this stage, pork consumption performance is poor, and the breeding end of the pressure bar mentality is not high, the slaughter realization sentiment is relatively strong, it is expected that in the next 1 3 days, domestic pig prices will still maintain a low and weak trend, and the center of gravity of pig prices may fall below the previous low value!
Price change warning: 8 consecutive drops, pig price decline**!What happened to the soybean meal "cliff**"?What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion!