In the middle of January, in the domestic livestock and poultry and grain markets, the first is under full pressure!Among them, in the pig market, pig prices are "low", the average price of pigs has fallen again, and the losses of farmers have expanded. In the grain market, corn in the "collapse" production area of corn fell across the board, hitting a new low in three years. In the wheat market, wheat ** is under pressure, and some companies are collecting grain at a lower price again!
So, what's happening in the market?The specific analysis is as follows:
First, the price of pigs is "low"!
In the hog market, it is understood that on January 10, the outer three-yuan lean pig ** in 1369 yuan kg, compared with yesterday's narrow range **005 yuan, pig prices are "low", the average price of live pigs continues to move down the bottom, the domestic market is weak, and the mainstream producing areas are dominated by ***!
At present, the logic supporting pig prices** is roughly as follows:
First, the lack of good consumption, the recent household pork consumption and catering consumption performance in general, especially, after the New Year's Day holiday, residents mostly hoard consumption, and by the pork **sufficient, ** little change, consumers lack of hoarding sentiment!In particular, with the replacement of the old and the new, young people's enthusiasm for pork consumption has declined, and this year's pickled meat performance is less than expected
Second, the lack of price difference in the price of standard fat pigs, the price of large pigs is more positive, the market stock of cattle and pigs panic slaughter, and the fattened pigs are poor, the market standard pig fattening weight gain mentality is not high, the breeding end lacks the equivalent sentiment of the bar, part of the southern market, the social side and the group pig enterprises slaughter "involution" phenomenon is more prominent!
Third, the price of pigs in the north and south is "upside down", the regional pig transportation is not smooth, and the market has a certain performance of "southern pigs and northern transportation", which further exacerbates the pessimism of market sentiment!
Therefore, in the poor consumption and the loose situation of slaughter, pig prices have not stopped, but at present, pig prices have been at the bottom of the stage, after entering the wax month, with the gradual strengthening of consumption support, it is expected that pig prices will also get rid of the trend of falling more than once, and the prospect of pig prices is still expected to be the best!
Second, corn "collapse"**
In the past two days, the corn market has risen again, due to the approaching of the New Year, the temperature in the Northeast is changeable, the corn is frequently opened after freezing, the quality of grassroots grain sources has deteriorated, the difficulty of corn storage has increased, and the mentality of farmers selling grain has heated up again
In terms of demand follow-up, due to the uneven quality of grain sources, the enthusiasm of merchants to hoard goods is not high, and the phenomenon of collecting and going is more obvious, and feed enterprises lack the enthusiasm of hoarding, the increase in the source of grain for deep processing, the high level of corn inventory in enterprises, and the price reduction mentality has become stronger
Among them, in the northeast region, due to the increase in farmers' demand for realization, the concentration of grassroots tide grain loads, the weak demand of enterprises, and the increase in deep processing prices, as many as 20 deep processing enterprises in Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia have been lowered, with a decline of 03 1 cent, mainstream corn deep processing ** in 1085~1.265 yuan catty!
In North China, due to the increase in the transfer of grain sources in Northeast China, the phenomenon of local farmers panicking to sell grain has increased, the circulation of spot corn has increased, the level of enterprise arrival has remained high, and the price sentiment of deep processing enterprises has become stronger, among them, in Shandong, deep processing enterprises have arrived at more than 1230 cars, and 17 local corn deep processing enterprises have collected grain at a low price, with a decrease of 03 2 pounds, corn ** in Shandong fell to 1193~1.285 yuan catty, most of the enterprises ** in 12~1.23 yuan catty!
Personally, due to the mismatch between production and marketing in the corn market, in the first half of January, the market may maintain the trend of the first month, entering the middle and second half of the year, due to the change in the weather and the rhythm of farmers' grain sales and the increase in the demand for bargains in the downstream market, the corn market may have strong expectations!
Third, wheat ** under pressure!
In the past two days, with the domestic local reserves of wheat purchase and sales enthusiasm to become stronger, the temporary storage of wheat on the production area of wheat impact is weak, part of the main body of the grain panic mentality weakened, the price sentiment strengthened, some milling enterprises affected by the inventory, there is a slight increase in the price of the operation, spot wheat ** slightly stronger!
However, from the market feedback, at present, the performance of domestic milling enterprises is not good, on the one hand, there is difficulty in the delivery of bran, and the first continuous downward adjustment, some enterprises bran ** fell to about 1600 yuan tons, and the profitability of by-products of milling enterprises is poor;On the other hand, the recent flour sales are average, the downstream hoarding mentality is weak, the operating rate of domestic milling enterprises is at a low level, and some small flour mills still have the phenomenon of stopping wheat harvest!Superimposed, corn ** weakened again, milling enterprises wait-and-see mentality became stronger, bearish sentiment heated up, some grain merchants appeared to a certain amount of cash out of the phenomenon, wheat market ** under pressure, ** to low pulling!
Judging from market feedback, Liaocheng Huatong Flour, Liaocheng Developed Flour, Leling Luqing Flour, Jinan Shanghe Jinshahe, and wheat ** were lowered by 03~0.5 cents;In Xiongxian Wudeli, Shangqiu Wudeli, Xinxiang Wudeli, Jining Liangshan Lisheng, Suiping Wudeli, Bazhou Yihai Kerry, wheat ***05 2 cents pounds!In Shandong, Hebei and Henan, the mainstream wheat ** hovers at 14~1.45 yuan catty!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, wheat ** or will maintain a weak and stable strong adjustment trend, in particular, before the temporary storage of the production area and the lowest purchase price of wheat auction, the domestic wheat effective ** is slightly tight, and flour consumption into the wax month or there are signs of substantial recovery, therefore, wheat prices still have a continuous trend, however, the increase is relatively limited!
On January 10, pig prices were "low", and corn was "collapsing" **wheat** under pressure!What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, and the content is for reference only!