Kunpeng Project
TCL Zhonghuan's net profit is 4.8 billion! An inflection point in sight?
Recently, TCL Zhonghuan announced its annual report for this year,** which will reach a net profit of RMB 4.2 billion to RMB 4.8 billion in fiscal year 2022, down 30%-38% from the same period last year; The company's non-net profit decreased by 44%-52% year-on-year to between 3.1 billion and 3.6 billion.
It is understood that in the first half of this year, TCL Zhonghuan will complete a net profit of 61 in the first three months of this year8.8 billion yuan. According to this figure, TCL Zhonghuan's losses in the fourth quarter were between 1.4 billion and 2 billion.
This result is not a good result for a "top student" like TCL Central.
After the announcement of the financial report, TCL Central's **all the way**, from the highest point, the market value evaporated by 150 billion.
In fact, TCL Zhonghuan's financial report for this year was already expected, as the cost of PV modules exceeded 50% in the first half of 2022**, especially in the fourth quarter, even further**. Therefore, in this case, the company has no choice but to follow the trend.
Among them, solar cells can be said to be one of the most significant periodic laws.
In the past 20 years, there have been four cycles in the solar cell industry.
The first round of the cycle began in 2004, due to the dual pressure of environmental protection and energy security, many countries have introduced corresponding policies to support the development of the photovoltaic industry, so that China's solar energy industry relies on its own foreign trade strength to grow rapidly.
The third time was in the year, due to the "double reversal" of Europe and the United States, as well as 5The policy of No. 31, the policy of both countries has come to an end. From the last three cycles, it can be seen that in these three stages, policy is the key factor affecting the development of the solar energy industry.
The fourth wave is from 2019, with the dual impact of "carbon neutrality" and "world energy shortage", China's solar industry can be said to have achieved a blowout.
According to relevant statistics, in 2020, there will be 301 GW of new installations and 106 GW of new PV installations; It is estimated that by 2022, China's installed capacity of new energy will reach 8741 GW, while the total amount of photovoltaic power generation worldwide will reach 230 GW.
As the market continues to grow, major solar cell companies are actively expanding their production capacity.
According to relevant data, from 2020 to the end of 2023, the total investment in various fields (plans) of the entire photovoltaic industry has exceeded 3 trillion. From the perspective of each part, from 2020 to 2022, the total investment in the polysilicon industry will reach 20.7 billion yuan, 220 billion yuan, and 450 billion yuan; The total investment is more than 290 billion yuan; The total investment in batteries and parts is 33 billion yuan, 220 billion yuan, more than 300 billion yuan, and the cumulative amount has exceeded 830 billion yuan.
Excessive development has made this round of ** soon come to an end. Starting from 2023, the cost of cells at all stages has decreased to a certain extent, for example, at the end of 2023, the average selling price of p-type M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers is 192 yuan, while at the end of 2022, the ** of p-type M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers is 541 yuan piece, the average transaction price of p-type M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers in one year has exceeded 60%.
Not only monocrystalline silicon, but also the price reduction of components is ridiculous. According to **, since the beginning of 2022, the cost of solar panels has increased from about 18 yuan watt**. Since October, the domestic component bidding has been maintained at 114-1.45, in November it fell below 1 yuan w. Since December, the p n components have been below 1 yuan, and the main price after that is 094-0.Between 99.
It has to be said that the current solar energy industry has entered a new stage.
TCL Zhonghuan is a leading enterprise in silicon wafers, and it is the upstream enterprise of the entire industrial chain, and it is also the first to bear the brunt. TCL Zhonghuan expects to lose 1.4 billion to 2 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2023, and from this point in time, the last time TCL Zhonghuan lost 100 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2012.
For TCL Zhonghuan, the profitability in the fourth quarter is also predictable, because from 2022 onwards, costs are falling in all parts of the entire optoelectronic industry, especially in chips and components.
From the performance data, it can be seen that TCL Zhonghuan is mainly engaged in silicon chips and components, of which TCL Zhonghuan's revenue in the first half of 2022 is 269700 million, 7727% and 520.8 billion yuan, which brought 1492% of revenue.
However, although it had been expected before, when the results were announced, TCL Zhonghuan's ** was still affected by ** and began to decline. Of course, investors are also worried about a recession, so they are still waiting for signs of a reversal in the industry.
In fact, there are reasons for investors' concerns, after all, the entire solar industry is "the leftover is king", and many companies are experiencing the process of survival of the fittest.
According to the results, TCL Zhonghuan's current total debt is 647500 million, plus a total of 200600 million current debt, compared to TCL Zhonghuan's current only 116On the books of 900 million yuan, it is still facing financial constraints.
In addition, TCL Zhonghuan's aggressive expansion in the early days is now facing some difficulties due to the continuous cost of chips and components. TCL Central expects another 106 by the third quarter of 2022With 100 million yuan of projects under construction, if the solar cells continue, TCL Zhonghuan is likely to face overcapacity in the future.
TCL Zhonghuan is not completely ignorant of the laws of industrial circulation. As a result, it began to lend some of its own backward production capacity, including a 27% stake in Xinjiang Gaones Company.
Kanjian Finance said that as a cyclical industry, the company will inevitably suffer in the process of growth, but if it can survive, it will get rich returns from the market.