Recently, TCL Zhonghuan disclosed the performance forecast, according to the preliminary calculation results of the company's financial department, it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 4.2 billion yuan to 4.8 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 29 over the same period last year60%â38.40%, net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 3.1 billion yuan to 3.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 44 over the same period last year47%â52.18%ă
The collective performance of the photovoltaic sector is under pressure
In addition to TCL Zhonghuan, a number of other photovoltaic companies have released their 2023 annual performance forecasts, and most of them have lower performance in the fourth quarter, among them, Jingyuntong deducted a net profit loss of 129-2.0.1 billion yuan.
The author found that the main reason for the negative growth of TCL Zhonghuan's performance in 2023 is also caused by the fluctuation of performance in the fourth quarter - the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was -19$8.8 billion to -138.8 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 184%-220%, and the net profit deducted from non-attributable to the parent was -220.8 billion to -170.8 billion yuan, down 214%-247% month-on-month. As for the reasons for the change in performance, TCL Zhonghuan gave two influencing factors in the announcement:
In 2023, the overall photovoltaic industry chain will show a fluctuating downward trend, and the main products will be rapidly in the fourth quarter to the irrational range, and the profitability of the company's main business will be under pressure;
At the same time, the rapid decline of the product and the one-time book loss caused by the disposal of the equity of the shareholding company had a large negative impact on the company's performance in the fourth quarter. The author notes that the act of "getting rid of the old burden at one time" is expected to bring huge losses of 600 million to 800 million yuan to the company.
In the photovoltaic winter in the fourth quarter, the fluctuation of the superimposed industrial chain brought "Davis double kill".
Behind the collective "Waterloo" of the 2023 PV enterprise report card is the power of the PV cycle that cannot be ignored.
The photovoltaic industry has two characteristics: growth and cyclicality. In the past ten years, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China has increased by nearly 40 times, and has become the second largest form of energy after thermal power. Cyclicality goes hand in hand with the development of the industry, and the leading factors of the domestic photovoltaic cycle have shown the characteristics of "policy-driven" to "market-driven" and then to "technology-driven", and the inducements of this cycle are reflected in the following aspects:
The marginal improvement of supply and demand mismatch in the whole industry chain is the core reason for this round of PV cycle. The pace of the expansion cycle of each link of the photovoltaic industry is different, from the upstream polysilicon to the downstream module expansion cycle is gradually shortened, and there is an obvious lag in the response of the upstream to the demand of the downstream links, and the mismatch between supply and demand is transmitted upwards through the industrial chain, pushing the upstream polysilicon ** to the peak at the beginning of the current cycle, during which the tuyere effect is formed to attract a large amount of capital to pour into the large-scale expansion of all links of the photovoltaic industry. Since 2022, the polysilicon sector has released a huge amount of production capacity, alleviating the long-standing shortage of polysilicon and driving the entire industry chain into a price reduction cycle. According to the authors' statistics, from 2022 to 2023, polysilicon** fell by as much as 80%, and the trend of downstream segments** was basically the same as that of polysilicon, so the short-term profitability of enterprises in the whole industry chain was under pressure in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The n-type led change in the technical route is the direct cause of this cycle. Over the past 20 years, China's photovoltaic industry has been turbulent, and technological innovation has helped China's photovoltaic industry develop from the "three ends" of raw materials, technology and market to the "world's first" in manufacturing, installed capacity and power generation. Since 2023, the substitution progress of n-type technology and products has exceeded expectations, and its advantages of reducing costs and increasing efficiency have affected the demand structure of the industry and squeezed the share of p-type products, industry insiders said that it is expected that the proportion of n-type in the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to exceed 70% in 2024, and the p-type production capacity will further decline to about 20%.
On the whole, the short-term cycle and long-term development present a "double day" situation. According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, there will be 216 new photovoltaic installations in the country in 202388gwă
Short-term cycle fluctuations do not change the long-term growth trend of the photovoltaic industry, and how to successfully pass through this cycle is a common problem faced by photovoltaic enterprises.
How PV companies can temper the power to go through the cycle
Historical experience shows that the law of the industrial cycle will never be absent, and recovery will eventually come. Among them, companies with excellent business maturity and innovation capabilities are able to drive the upward process of the cycle, go through the cycle and look for incremental space from 10 to 100 to meet the fundamentals of the upturn.
According to Infolink's relevant statistics, in the second half of 2023, the market share of n-type products in the photovoltaic industry chain will increase significantly, with an increase of more than 20% in the third quarter and a record high of 52% at the end of the fourth quarter. In terms of end-user demand, N-type bidding began to be rapid in August 2023**, accounting for nearly 70% of n-type module bidding by the end of the year.
Technological innovation + manufacturing capacity has become the decisive factor for opening the competitiveness gap of photovoltaic enterprises.
In large-scale manufacturing, the downstream N-type technology routes such as HJT, IBC, and TOPCon have different requirements for upstream crystal growth, physical parameter control direction, etc., making the category of N-type silicon wafers close to 1,200 so far, and the demand for customized N-type silicon wafers far exceeds that of the P-type era, and the technical barriers have been greatly improved.
The rapid iteration of N-type technology products, the structural adjustment of industry production capacity, and the suspension of production capacity and the liquidation of backward production capacity - TCL Zhonghuan's attitude towards the photovoltaic technology route has always been firm.
Since the establishment of the company in 1958, TCL Zhonghuan, which has gone through a Jiazi, has gone through many rounds of cycles. As an upstream N-type wafer manufacturer, TCL Zhonghuan has grasped the development opportunities in both N-type wafer technology accumulation and business structure. With its technical accumulation in physical parameters, engineering management, SIGMA value, product consistency control, etc., TCL Zhonghuan has taken the lead in realizing low-cost mass production of N-type silicon wafers, with a coverage rate of over 90% for N-type customers, and at the same time achieving full coverage of battery technology routes.
Relevant sources said that in 2023, the shipment scale and production capacity of N-type silicon wafers will both increase, and the current N-type production capacity of TCL Zhonghuan accounts for more than 90%, and the N-type production capacity is at the leading level in the industry.
Looking forward to the future development, TCL Zhonghuan said that based on the clear judgment and cognition of the development direction of the industry and its own development path, the company maintains strategic focus, continues to promote cost reduction and efficiency increase, and adheres to technological innovation and industry 40 manufacturing mode transformation, continue to improve flexible manufacturing capabilities, continuously strengthen endogenous competitive advantages, respond to industrial chain fluctuations with scientific and sustainable cost leadership and stable business strategies, and ensure the company's endogenous sustainable development competitiveness.
The author believes that the cyclical fluctuations of the industry test the strategic determination and development resilience of enterprises, and countless veterans in the history of China's photovoltaic industry have fallen to the bottom of the cycle, and countless evergreens have been reborn in the fluctuations.
In 2023, the valuation and business environment of the photovoltaic capital market will both decline to the bottom range - the annual photovoltaic sector will evaporate trillions of market value, and the fourth quarter will be intensively impaired, equity disposal, etc., which is a concrete reflection of the cyclical lethality and a warning to those in the photovoltaic bureau.
Enterprises should not be confined to short-term interests but focus on long-term development, respect the cycle, keep pace with the times, innovation-oriented, and stabilize the impact of the cycle.
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