Straight news: The U.S. military appeared for the first time in the Middle East melee**, and Biden vowed to make a strong counterattack, will it stimulate the further expansion of the war?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: The United States is very contradictory now, and Biden is under great pressure. The U.S. military intervened in the Middle East melee, and there was the first ** incident, with 3 dead and more than 30 injured, which was the most since the US military retreated from Afghanistan, so Biden encountered strong domestic pressure and needed to make what he called a strong response. Otherwise, the families of the soldiers did not agree, and the Republican candidate Trump said that Biden was worthless, and Republican lawmakers even demanded that Iran be attacked and Tehran, because the United States has always claimed that Iran is behind all the armed groups that oppose the US military.
But if the U.S. military strikes Iran, it means that a relatively sporadic Middle East scuffle will quickly turn into a large-scale Middle East war, and neither the United States nor Israel can control the situation. At present, 10 countries have been involved in the Middle East melee. If the US military's retaliation is a little more cautious, it is likely to involve all the countries in the Middle East, and it is really impossible to go around.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken put it more accurately when he said that the situation in the Middle East is more dangerous now than it was in 1973. The October War that broke out in 1973 shattered the dominant position of Arab countries in the Middle East and completely changed the pattern of the Middle East. If Biden does not fight back against the US military for the first time, he will not be able to calm the domestic anger, and he will become a handle in this year's **, which will be torn apart by the Republican Trump. If the counterattack is too violent, it may lead to the spread of war in the Middle East. Now that both the United States and Iran have declared that they will not engage in direct war, then the possibility is that the US military attacks the militias in Iraq and Syria, which they call Iran's ** people. However, even if it is only against the militias, it does not rule out the triggering of new conflicts. You see, after the U.S. military airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen, U.S. and British ** and merchant ships have become the focus of strikes, and the Red Sea shipping lanes have become more unsafe. Judging from the tone of the White House National Security Council, Biden may only take limited actions, try to avoid the expansion of the war, "choose a certain time and method", and respond "in a very important way", which has shown that the US military's retaliation is limited. In fact, there is a way to reduce the risk of war in the Middle East, that is, to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as soon as possible. But the parties currently competing with each other do not seem to be ready, especially Israel.
Straight News: At the end of the Paris conference attended by Israel, the United States, Qatar and Egypt, it was announced that progress had been made on the issue of prisoner exchange, but Hamas demanded a truce before talking about prisoner exchange and other issues, do you think the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will stop?
Chen Bing: So far, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has drawn opposition from most countries around the world, and the UN resolution and an interim ruling of the International Court of Justice calling on Israel to take action to prevent genocide in Gaza have shown that the war in Gaza needs to be stopped immediately. Another phenomenon that deserves attention is the contradiction between the United States and Israel, which began to exhort Israel not to go too far, which is related to the impact of the blockage of the Red Sea shipping lanes on the world economy. But from Israel's point of view, the purpose of the Gaza war is to eliminate Hamas, but this war goal has not been achieved, and it can be said that it will never be achieved.
In addition, the purpose of the United States' intervention in the Middle East conflict has not been realized, and it was originally intended to restore the United States' influence in the Middle East through favoritism and support for Israel, but now the result of the intervention is that the influence of the United States has further declined, and the Houthis, the target of the United States' attack, have quickly become a force to be reckoned with in the Middle East. Iran's influence is rising rapidly, and although it has not directly participated in the war, the countries of the Middle East feel that Iran's influence is spreading in the Middle East through the militias of various countries, and it is even ubiquitous.
In addition, since the start of the war in Gaza, the US military has suffered more than 160 large and small attacks, which makes it difficult for the United States to ride the tiger and want to stop. Israel's war goals have not been achieved, and the United States' goal of supporting Israel's self-defense and counterattack has not been achieved, so the Middle East melee is now in a stalemate. Some Western countries have even cut aid to Palestine and used this immoral behavior to force Palestine to bow its head. All this shows that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is at a crossroads, and if the United States continues to support Israel in the war, it will not only make the world despise, but will also harm others and disadvantage itself. The presence of US troops at the Jordan base** will also prompt the United States to work in the direction of de-escalating the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
The latest news is that the Prime Minister of Qatar is visiting Washington to deliver the news that the prisoner exchange and the truce process are expected to advance at the same time. Perhaps, after Israel bombed Gaza and the US military retaliated quickly against the militias in Iraq and Syria, the armistice peace talks will slowly come to the forefront. If it continues to fight, it will be in no one's interest, and it will be difficult for Israel and the United States to support the war.
Author丨Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".