Blue Technology Observation] Although the performance of the global color TV industry in 2023 is less than expected, it is unrealistic to expect a significant ** in 2024. The best expectation is that in 2024, the global color TV industry will not decline, which will be the same as last year or increase slightly.
Studies by professional institutions confirm this expectation.
According to TrendForce research, global TV shipments in 2023 will be about 19.5 billion units, down 27%, a 10-year low. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, which coincides with the traditional off-season for consumer products, global TV shipments are expected to decline by 189% to 43.28 million units. However, full-year shipments still increased slightly by 03% potential, reaching about 19.6 billion units.
Combined with the expectations for January and the next two months, TrendForce believes that the global color TV industry in the first quarter has several characteristics:
First, the impact of the supply side, the average utilization rate of panel factories in the first quarter was less than 70%.
According to TrendForce's research, the supply side will be affected by the shortened working days during the Spring Festival holiday in February and the tight COP**, resulting in an early start in TV panel price increases at the end of January. As the Lunar New Year approaches, many panel factories have reduced production due to reduced demand, resulting in an average monthly utilization rate of only 592%, resulting in an average utilization rate of less than 70% in the first quarter. *Excess rate from 3. in Q4 20239% narrowed to 2. in the first quarter of 20246%。
In addition, the big ** that occurred in Japan at the beginning of this year also affected the factories of COP** business Zeon in Himi City, Toyama Prefecture and Tsuruga City, Fukui Prefecture. The damage to the local water pipes means that it cannot be fully repaired in the short term, which may affect the production of some VA panels from the end of February to March, causing the TV panel market to brew price increases.
Second, the purchase of North American dealers increased by about 6 in the first quarter3%。
There has been an increase in demand for TV panels, especially from North American dealers, who have been replenishing their stock after last year's event. In addition, since mid-January, brands have been stocking up in unison for a series of upcoming events. These include events related to North American tax refunds**, new model launches in the spring, sporting events, and Amazon Prime Day shopping events. These factors drove demand for TV panels in the first quarter, with purchases up about 63%。With the increasing call for price increases in the market and the risk of insufficient panel production capacity due to insufficient COP**, panel factories have regained bargaining power since January.
The third is that in February, the average number of TV panels below 50 inches is at least $1.
By February, the average **50-inch TV panel is expected to be at least $1, $55 for a 55-inch and $2-3 for a 65-inch inch, with out-of-stock models likely to go further. Despite ongoing global geopolitical turmoil and uncertainties from the recovery of financial conditions, TV panels** remain above the cost of cash at the moment. While this wave of price increases may not be as strong as in 2023, Q2 TV panels** still have the potential to challenge last year's highs.
Fourth, panel manufacturers will adopt control strategies to support price increases, and the profitability of TV manufacturers may be affected.
According to TrendForce's research, TV panels** may reach last year's peak level in Q2 due to reduced production during the Lunar New Year and tight COP**.
Since the start of TV panels last year, LG Display re-invested in Guangzhou 85th generation line production capacity, resulting in a surplus of TV panels. However, panel manufacturers will continue to adopt production control strategies to support TV panels***IT panels may also benefit.
However, the recent trend of high configuration and low price in the TV terminal market,Brand owners cannot effectively reflect the cost of the panel**,It is bound to affect this year's profitability and purchase intentions。
On the other hand, if the panel manufacturer's financial position improves quarter-by-quarter and the utilization rate rises above 80%, the second half of the year may face another off-season, and the panel **may**.
This article was published in TrendForce).