Are we really being cheated?In 2023, in order to introduce advanced lithography technology, we will invest a huge amount of money, and spend a total of up to 60 billion yuan to purchase lithography machines from abroad
Just as we first acquired these lithography machines, a series of thorny questions emerged one after another, which made one wonder if there was a clever plan by the United States.
Since July 2023, there have been rumors that the United States** has begun to worry, and they are worried that China may become the leader of the global traditional chip market in the future, and at that time, American companies will have to look up to China's face to buy chips.
The United States attaches great importance to this issue, and their strategic concerns have gradually penetrated from the field of high-end chips to the field of traditional chips. In order to ensure that they are starting to think deeply about how to further strengthen their control over China's semiconductor industry.
It is precisely the strategy adopted by the United States to encircle, chase and intercept China's semiconductor industry that has made the so-called "small courtyard and high wall" rise again and the defense more tight.
On January 2, ASML, a leading international manufacturer of lithography machines, made an important announcement: they decided to terminate all orders for high-end lithography machines in China** ahead of schedule, a decision that was earlier than originally planned.
Immediately afterwards, the Financial Times quickly followed up with a report and revealed the driving force behind all this - the United States. According to reports, the United States has pressured ASML to implement the restrictions weeks before the Dutch export controls to China come into full effect. This move is clearly aimed at ** all respite for China, in case we make large-scale purchases at the last minute.
What is even more excessive is that some of ASML's export licenses have been unilaterally revoked, which has undoubtedly caused serious disruption to its normal business operations.
In the recent month of November, Chinese companies showed a strong demand for lithography machines, importing a total of 42 pieces of equipment, with a total value of up to 8$16.8 billion.
Of these lithography machines, 16 are from the Dutch company ASML, and the average price of each machine is close to 3400 million yuan, in addition, Chinese companies also purchased 15 lithography machines from Japan, and purchased 11 second-hand equipment
Expanding the observation time frame to the first 10 months of 2023, it can be seen that China's investment in lithography machine imports has shown an impressive growth trend. According to conservative estimates, China's total investment in lithography machine imports during this period will reach 60 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that 2023 seems to have become a turning point for the large-scale procurement of lithography machines in China. Compared with the import value of 20 billion yuan in 2022, the investment in 2023 has increased nearly threefold.
For ASML's lithography machine, we in China can be described as a "rush to buy", why is this?
For ASML, China's chip industry is no longer as simple as a simple market. According to the latest data, ASML's third-quarter results accounted for 46% of the revenue share of the Chinese market
Although China's domestic lithography machine technology is continuing to make progress, it is still difficult to fully meet the stringent needs of high-end chip manufacturing in terms of resolution, a key technical indicator.
The limited immersion lithography machine is undoubtedly a disruptive technological innovation. Not only is it capable of precision manufacturing of chips as small as 7nm or even 5nm, but its performance advantages are self-evident compared to traditional dry DUV lithography machines.
In the context of the current U.S. technology export control to China, lithography machine giants such as ASML are keenly aware of the urgency of time. They are eager to take full advantage of the huge demand in the Chinese market and accelerate their deployment to gain more market share and revenue before the United States further tightens export controls.
From a strategic point of view, ASML's move also reveals its deep concern about the future development of China's lithography machine industry.
The battle between China and the United States in the chip industry has become white-hot, and the strategic value of the lithography machine, as the heart of the chip production process, is self-evident.
ASML is deeply aware that if China makes a major breakthrough in this key technology in time, its leading position in the domestic market will be severely challenged. As a result, ASML is seizing the opportunity to significantly increase its shipments of equipment in China, with the aim of deepening China's reliance on ASML products.
With this move, ASML intends to build a solid line of defense in the market: even if China succeeds in developing advanced lithography machine technology in the future, ASML will still be able to strengthen its position as an industry leader with its large user base and deep market base in China.
That's not the end of it. Last year, our country spent 60 billion yuan to purchase lithography machines, including these advanced lithography machines.
According to reliable sources, Biden is plotting his next move, which is to stop supplying key components of lithography machines to China. Their strategy is extremely shrewd, and by further tightening the rules, they intend to deprive the advanced DUV lithography machines that have already been sold from after-sales service support. This means that if these devices fail or need maintenance, we will have to rely on ourselves to find a solution.
Their plot is obvious: first, by restricting the purchase of new equipment, we will not be able to replace our production line;Then, by cutting off the after-sales service of the old equipment, these expensive machines gradually become ineffective.
Eventually, they want to see China's chip industry in a desperate situation, and can only helplessly watch as these once high-tech devices become a pile of scrap metal.
First of all, we must increase our efforts to promote the research and development process of independent lithography machines, especially focusing on extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the core technology of future chip manufacturing. Only by mastering this technology can we occupy a favorable position in the global chip industry.
Secondly, it is necessary to make full use of the potential of existing lithography machines to improve the performance and yield of chips through technological innovation and process improvement. We can explore the use of advanced technologies such as multiple ** and multi-layer stacking to break the limitations of traditional manufacturing models and realize the expansion of chip functions and the improvement of performance.
Finally, it's crucial to stay calm and rational. In the face of external pressures such as the chip ban in the United States, we cannot mess with ourselves, let alone blindly follow the trend in pursuit of so-called advanced technology. Instead, they should formulate realistic goals and plans that are in line with their long-term development interests based on their actual needs and market conditions.