Needless to say, at the moment Ukraine is very difficult on the battlefield.
First, because the Russian army is using its best efforts to launch a man-to-man sea tactic in Avdiivka at any cost, in order to make a breakthrough, to present the second anniversary of the war, and to save face for Mr. Pu's re-election in March.
The second is because the supporters of Trump in the US House of Representatives have done everything possible to obstruct aid to Ukraine, so that the Ukrainian army on the front line is seriously short of ammunition.
Recently, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that the Russian army is gaining a decisive advantage in Avdiivka; According to multiple other sources, the Ukrainian army may be withdrawn from here in the near future.
However, analysts from a number of institutions believe that the cost of the Russian army's superiority is extremely high, and its battle losses are 13 times that of the Ukrainian army!
The new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, told the German public broadcaster (ZDF) that the Ukrainian army will switch from offensive to defensive. He also denied the title of "butcher" given to him by the outside world. said that the Ukrainian army will not ignore the lives of its own fighters like the Russian army.
Many supporters of Russia celebrated this by saying that this was a sign that Ukraine was unable to fight again, and that it would only take Mr. Pu's small hand to launch a round of offensive victory.
In fact, switching from offensive to defensive is the most correct choice for the Ukrainian army at the moment. Because everyone's understanding of defense is also different. The meaning of the "defense" of the Ukrainian army is-
Do not fight bloodily on the battlefield for a position, a territory; Take advantage of the enemy's offensive to inflict maximum casualties and, if necessary, withdraw from positions; Carry out long-range attacks on oil refineries and oil depots in Russia to cut their economic income, and at the same time find an opportunity to deal a fatal blow to their military equipment.
On February 14, Valentine's Day, the Ukrainian army sent a big red envelope to the Russian side early in the morning: using a drone swarm to sink the 112-meter-long large landing craft Kaiser Kunikov. It is alleged that at least 87 crew members of the landing craft were killed, and the full load of ** ammunition also sank to the bottom of the Black Sea.
I don't know if this time the Russian side will insist that the landing craft are full of Ukrainian prisoners of war.
In the early hours of this morning, after a large oil depot in Kursk, Russia was hit by a drone, according to incomplete statistics, at least 8 oil refineries and oil depots have been bombed since the allies no longer restricted the Ukrainian army from launching attacks on military targets in Russia.
If nearly 400,000 people killed in battle can still be counted as "no losses", then the bombing of these refineries and oil depots is real gold**.
Of course, all these unfavorable factors are not visible to the lonely person in Russia who only watches his own TV and does not use his mobile phone at all. What he sees and hears is information that is favorable to him, so much so that he can only live in an illusory victory.
In fact, this is true of all lonely people. The Soviet-Finnish war launched by Starnian that year is exactly the same as today's Russia-Ukraine war.
In 1939, after the signing of the Soviet-German non-aggression pact, Stalin invaded Poland and then began to settle the three Baltic states, the three countries soon agreed to accept the Soviet garrison, but the negotiations with Finland ran into trouble, the Finns resolutely did not agree to lease the territory to the Soviet Union, nor did they agree to the Soviet garrison, and finally the negotiations broke down, and the Soviet Union issued an ultimatum to invade Finland militarily.
The reason for this war was also to invade neighboring countries in order to "defend itself", and the reason for the defeat of the war was that the lonely people were misled.
Reminiscing about the Soviet-Finnish war, Khrushchev wrote that we believed that "we were right to invade a neighboring country in order to protect ourselves," but judging from a legal and moral point of view, it was untenable to invade a sovereign state for our own security.
Before starting a war, Starnian convened a meeting to draw up a war plan. But in reality, the meeting was almost like a celebration party, and even invited a head of the Finnish Communist Party to appoint him as the head of the soon-to-be-founded "Finnish People's Republic", in fact a puppet of the Soviet Union.
The whole meeting was filled with an optimistic atmosphere. It was agreed that this was not a war, but a "walk"; All the Soviet troops needed to do was to "shout a voice", and the Finns would immediately obey orders; If it doesn't work, shoot it into the air, and the Finns will immediately throw up their hands and surrender.
Khrushchev recalled that no one at the meeting dared to put forward any contrary opinions.
In fact, after a brutal purge, the Soviet intelligence apparatus and bureaucracy provided only the information that Starian liked to hear, so almost all he received was disinformation.
For example, Soviet newspapers reported that the Finnish army was made up of workers and peasants, and that as soon as the Soviet liberators advanced into Finland, the Finnish army would immediately turn its guns and crush the landlords and capitalists.
TASS reports that the Finnish reserve forces are so poor that they don't even have shoes and clothes.
The Soviet ambassador to Finland also provided Moscow with a great deal of false information, believing that the exploited and oppressed people of Finland would rise up at any time to revolt against the exploiting classes and welcome the Soviet liberators.
Is all this exactly the same as when the Russian army invaded Ukraine two years ago? At that time, many Russian tanks carried ceremonial dresses and honor guards, preparing to hold a ceremony to enter the city in Kyiv!
But the truth is that Finland is actively preparing for war: it imported anti-tank ** and anti-aircraft ** from Sweden, and also transported tens of thousands of children to Sweden, and the determination and will of the Finnish elite were deliberately ignored by the Soviet intelligence agencies, and the information sent to the lonely people was ...... "Finland will be defeated, and the Soviet Union will defeat Finland at almost no cost".
As a result, the Soviet army met stubborn resistance, with 250,000 killed (the Soviet Union officially admitted only 70,000 dead), while Finland lost 250,000 people, with a battle loss ratio of 10:1.
It was also this battle that made Hitler see the Achilles heel of the Soviet army and strengthen his determination to invade the Soviet Union.
Today, history repeats itself, and the Russian army, the second strongest in the world, has become the second strongest on the battlefield in Ukraine.
More than eighty years have passed, and nothing seems to have changed.
In fact, it is not time that does not change, but social patterns. In the social model of the Soviet Union and Russia, decision-makers are always only given information that is favorable to them and negative to the other, so that they misjudge the situation and think too much of themselves.
This is the fate of the lonely.