This newspaper (chinatimesnet.CN) reporter Liu Chuan and Chen Feng report from Beijing.
On the second trading day of the A-share Year of the Dragon, the Shanghai Composite Index continued yesterday's trend and achieved five consecutive positives. However, the continuous ** has made funds more and more cautious, and the trading volume has shrunk by nearly 170 billion yuan.
As of Feb. 20**, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 042% at 292273 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 004% to close at 890596 points; The GEM index fell 001% to close at 174618 o'clock. Northbound funds sold a net of 1 throughout the day2.3 billion, of which 153.6 billion yuan, Shenzhen Stock Connect net selling 16$5.9 billion; The main funds continued to have a net outflow, with an outflow of 409.4 billion yuan.
A private equity person told the "China Times" reporter that "after A-shares stood at the 2700 points, 2800 points, and 2900 points in a row, the first pressure line position in the early stage, shrank for two consecutive days, especially today's ST plate rise, a variety of signs reflect that the market has increased awareness of capital risks, no longer follow up, and the disk needs to rest." ”
The shrinkage was 170 billion yuan
From the perspective of the A-share market, the number of ** companies has reached 3,578, **1,569, with a good rise and fall ratio, of which 155 are up and down. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 789.5 billion, a decrease of 167.7 billion from the previous trading day.
On the disk, artificial intelligence and first-class drugs are still the hot spots of hype.
Pharmaceutical stocks opened higher, led by the direction of ** medicine, Boji Pharmaceutical, Huasen Pharmaceutical, Baihua Pharmaceutical, etc. AI concept stocks continued to be active, among which SORA concept stocks continued to rise sharply, such as Danghong Technology, Huichang Communication, and Insai Group; Media game stocks rose intraday, with more than 10 stocks such as Chinese**, CITIC Publishing, Gravity Media, and Palm Reading Technology rising and stopping. **In terms of CPO concept stocks, the company ushered in a differentiation, and Xinyisheng fell by more than 4%.
It is worth noting that the ST sector collectively rose sharply, with 50 shares such as ST Tai'an, ST Kao, ST Huatie, and ST Shida.
In the intraday, it was reported that the three original factories of memory chips controlled the supply and had a firm attitude. In the DRAM segment, the focus is on HBM and DDR5 investments; The NAND part is to strive not to lose sales. With the continuation of supply control and the slow recovery of demand, DRAM in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 13-18 month-on-month, the same as the previous quarter. In the first quarter, NAND increased by 18-23 quarter-on-quarter, better than the 13-18 in the previous quarter.
Affected by this news, the memory chip concept stock Beijing Junzheng has a 20cm daily limit at the end of the day, with a turnover of more than 1 billion yuan. Wanrun Technology's 10cm daily limit at the end of the day, and the end of Hengshuo Technology once soared to **1465% and finally closed at 3715 yuan shares, **1037%。Another memory chip leader, BIWIN Storage**536%。
China Mobile became the king of new stocks
On February 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce the new loan market interest rate (LPR). Among them, the LPR with a term of more than 5 years is 395% compared to 4 in the previous month2%。LPR over 5 years fell 25 basis points from the previous month.
Feng Jianlin, chief economist at FOST, told the China Times: "The central bank lowered the five-year LPR by 25bp, and the signal is very clear, which is to stimulate medium and long-term credit demand and support infrastructure investment and real estate." The adjustment of 25bp is relatively large, reflecting the attitude of unswervingly stabilizing the economy. This is conducive to stabilizing and improving the confidence and expectations of all parties in the policy and economic fundamentals, and is conducive to supporting the improvement of the situation. ”
This is the largest drop in the history of the 5-year LPR, and as soon as the news of the interest rate cut came out, the high-dividend energy and highway categories ** showed even more "fragrant" and hit record highs.
Today, there are nearly 20 ** companies that hit a record high, including Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway, Sichuan Investment Energy, Huaneng Hydropower, SDIC Power, Guangdong Expressway A, Yangtze River Electric Power, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Bank of China, Shandong Expressway, Anhui Expressway, Agricultural Bank of China, Shanmei International, and CNOOC.
Also hitting a record high was China Mobile. On February 20**, China Mobile**197%, reported at 106 yuan shares, and the total market value reached 227 trillion. And Kweichow Moutai is **15%, closing at 1670 yuan shares, with a total market value of 21 trillion. Between a rise and a fall, China Mobile beat Kweichow Moutai and was promoted to the king of A-share new stocks.
From the perspective of market investment, operators have two major attributes: one is high dividends, and the other is the digital economy. In the first half of last year, there was a wave of the main line of the digital economy, and the leaders were the three major operators.
On the news side, on February 19, the National Data Bureau released a message that in order to implement the work deployment of the "Overall Layout Plan for the Construction of Digital China", find out the base number of data resources, accelerate the development and utilization of data resources, and better play the value of data elements, the National Data Bureau, the Office of the ** Network Security and Information Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Public Security jointly carried out a national survey on data resources, investigated the production and storage, circulation and trading, development and utilization, and security of data resources of various units. Pilot demonstration and other work to provide data support.
The outlook is cautiously optimistic
According to the information on the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, from February 18 to 19, at the beginning of the Spring Festival, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a series of symposiums to listen to opinions and suggestions from all parties on strengthening capital market supervision, preventing and resolving risks, and promoting the high-quality development of the capital market. The symposium was presided over by Wu Qing, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and members of the leading group.
It is understood that the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a total of more than 10 forums in two days, of which Wu Qing presided over two of them, and specially led a team to the brokerage business department to discuss and exchange views with more than 10 individual investor representatives.
Feng Jianlin said: "At present, the first is weak, and there is a deviation from the macroeconomic fundamentals, which has a certain relationship with the weak macroeconomy, but more is the distrust of all parties in their own system." With the appointment of the new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, it is expected that the adjustment and improvement of various basic systems will be accelerated, which will help improve the confidence of all parties in the market. ”
Guo Shiliang, a financial commentator, told this reporter: "After the new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission took office, his attitude has improved greatly, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission has begun to speak widely and accept the opinions of all parties in the market, which is a good start." There are too many problems in A-shares, and there are many problems in the investment ecology and functional positioning, and it is estimated that it is very difficult to solve these problems in a short period of time. ”
For the market outlook, Guo Shiliang expressed cautious optimism. Guo Shiliang believes: "At present, in the process of bottoming out of A-shares, there needs to be stimulated by internal and external forces, such as the Federal Reserve announcing an interest rate cut (it may be a temporary interest rate cut, it is difficult to replicate the environment of close to 0 benchmark interest rate in 2020), or it may be the establishment of leveling and stimulating an upward wave." Therefore, this year's ** return to above 3000 points should be a high probability thing. ”
However, he further said: "In the current total market value of nearly 80 trillion yuan, it is already very difficult to pull up to more than 3,500 points, without a daily average of 1."The energy level of more than 5 trillion is estimated to be difficult to rise above 3,500 points. Personally, I believe that this year's volatility range may be between 2635 and 3400 points. ”
As far as the specific points are concerned, the previous entry of the national team into the market and the replacement of personnel clearly indicate the bottom line of the policy. Feng Jianlin analyzed to reporters: "Various negative factors have been fully reflected in the current market pricing. In the future, if the real estate gradually stabilizes, the economy continues to repair, and the system continues to improve, these may constitute marginal benefits and are expected to support the improvement of the market. ”
Editor-in-charge: Shuai Kecong Editor-in-chief: Xia Shencha.