February 24, 2022 was a watershed moment, and today, two years later, Vladimir Putin, two years after this conflict, seems to be growing more and more confident and determined to defeat enemies at home and abroad.
He slammed the United States, NATO, and the European Union as a collective West's "conflict against Russia, an existential battle for the survival of its country."How and when will it end?
What is the current attitude of Russia and Ukraine?
Zelensky did not want to stop, and once vowed to fight to the last man. Although several major towns in the east have now been lost, and even Kyiv is very dangerous, the Russian army's steel torrent can rush to it at any time, and the Ukrainian army has suffered a heavy defeat, but Zelensky still does not want to admit defeat. I still want to continue to work hard, recruit troops, and pull NATO in to fight a turnaround. I want to drive the Russian army out of Ukraine, I want to take back the lost land.
NATO and the European Union are desperately preaching that Zelensky is a tragic hero. For the sake of the country's territorial integrity and sovereignty, Zelensky did not hesitate to go to the international arena to beg for military aid and wrestle with powerful opponents. It's just the real inside story, the United States and the West know in their hearts, Ukraine was sold by the West, and they have to count the money for them.
This is the "yang conspiracy", who made Zelensky like to be an actor, without political acumen, without strategic vision. Sandwiched between major powers, we should not stand in line, but sway from side to side, eat both ends, and maximize benefits. The election of one such ** by the Ukrainian people was a mistake and paid a huge price.
Russia's ** Vladimir Putin said in a speech broadcast on the 18th that the war in Ukraine is a major event related to Russia's "survival", and it may determine the fate of Russia.
In an interview with state television, Putin said: "I think it is still important for us to understand our way of thinking, and even more so for our overseas listeners and viewers." ”
"Everything that is happening on the front line in Ukraine: for them it is an improvement in their tactical position, but for us it is our fate, it is an existential matter," he said. ”
What are the effects of two years of conflict on the world?
NATO, as an important force in the United States and the West behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has also changed its arrogance in this war, exposing the true face of the "paper tiger", while providing Ukraine with ** and military assistance, but on the other hand, it has shown hesitation and hesitation on the battlefield, making the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is evolving in the direction of prolongation and protractedness, and has spilled over to the Middle East and other regions.
Russia** quoted the former Prosecutor General of Ukraine as saying that since the outbreak of the war, the number of killed in the Armed Forces of Ukraine has reached 500,000 and 7 seriously wounded20,000, 0 captured60 thousand.
And the latest data on the battle losses of the Russian Armed Forces published by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, as of the beginning of January 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have eliminated 36510,000 enemies, combined with this figure, the number of dead on both sides of Russia and Ukraine now exceeds 860,000.
At the same time, the war has also caused millions of people to leave their homes, and the flow of refugees poses a great threat to the social stability of Europe. As of January 2024, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused more than 10 million Ukrainians** to be displaced and become refugees. This has created the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.
More than 6 million Ukrainians have been displaced within their own borders, and more than 3 million Ukrainian refugees have fled to neighbouring countries, including more than 2 million to Poland, according to the UNHCR. In the case of civilians**, at least 10,000 civilians have been killed in the conflict, including more than 560 children. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights reported that more than 18,500 civilians had been injured.
Neutral countries weakened their neutral status or abandoned their neutrality, and military spending by major military powers and military blocs hit record highs. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although Austria insisted on neutrality, it agreed to join the EU's "Strategic Compass" action plan and participate in the establishment of the EU's 5,000-strong rapid reaction force; Finland and Sweden applied for NATO and bid farewell to "neutrality" completely.
In addition, Switzerland, Ireland and other countries have also deviated from their traditional neutral status and participated in sanctions against Russia. In 2024, the United States will raise its defense budget again to $886 billion, accounting for about 40% of global military spending, more than the sum of the nine countries after the United States. In 2024, NATO will also raise its military budget to 20300 million euros, up 12% compared to 2023.
Whether to support Russia or Ukraine has become almost a political choice. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not only a direct confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but also the focus of the interest game and contradictions of European countries.
Europe's divisions have also been highlighted by this incident. EU member states "can't talk" on the energy ban on Russia; On the Russia-Ukraine issue alone, there are many differences within Europe on a series of issues such as "whether to decouple from Russia", "whether to speed up the procedures for Ukraine's accession to the EU", and "the allocation of funds for the EU's strategic autonomy".
In the coming period, with the progress of the war and the escalation of US sanctions against Russia, the contradictions and divisions within Europe will continue, and this will be a core driving force affecting the European security structure.
Energy fluctuates violently, the supply structure is impacted, and the demand structure has changed dramatically. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and other allies imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia, including in the energy sector, resulting in a gradual expansion of the energy gap in Europe, a surge in energy, and the backlash caused by sanctions overwhelmed the European economy.
Among them, in the month when the Nord Stream pipeline was bombed, the United States exported 70% of its total natural gas exports to Europe, and the average price of natural gas in Europe was more than seven times that of the US natural gas spot**. Other data show that in 2022, the EU's natural gas imports from Russia will decrease by nearly two and a half percent year-on-year, and the contract price of electricity in Europe will be nearly three times higher.
What does the future hold?
1) At the Ukrainian level: Ukraine is becoming an "anti-Russian" country, Russia must not accept this reality, and the "special military operation" carried out by Russia in Ukraine is to "demilitarize and denazify" Ukraine;
2) At the NATO level: the reason why Ukraine has become an "anti-Russian" country that has been militarized and Nazified is because "NATO has expanded eastward year after year", and NATO military facilities have quickly assembled on Russia's borders through Ukraine, so Russia's "special military operation" is also a powerful counterattack to NATO's eastward advance strategy;
3) At the U.S. level: NATO is also "just a tool of U.S. foreign policy", and the goal of the United States is to defeat Russia strategically through this tool, so Russia's "special military operation" is also a powerful counterattack to the U.S. strategy of attacking Russia.
2024 could be the year of the decisive battle. The bets of the Russian and Ukrainian sides are getting bigger and bigger, and the way out is getting narrower and narrower. Although the call for peace talks has been increasing, the positions of all parties are too different and there is no basis for peace talks. As long as Ukraine does not collapse and the West does not stop aiding Ukraine, it will continue to fight with Russia.
Russia has not experienced the upheaval and collapse that the West had expected. In March 2024, Putin is likely to be re-elected with a large vote, and he recently said that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is about Russia's "life and death".
Russia believes that in this war of attrition, time is on Russia's side. If it can achieve a clear advantage on the battlefield, it may not stop at the four eastern regions of Ukraine, and some Russian ** have also repeatedly said that Kharkiv, Odessa, Nikolaev and other "are all Russian cities".
Although Europe is tired, it has not seen serious **, and the elites are firmly in favor of Ukraine. European countries generally believe that the cost of suffering Ukraine's defeat is far greater than the price of aiding Ukraine now. Therefore, Denmark decided to hand over all its stocks of artillery shells to Ukraine and called on European countries to increase aid to Ukraine.
Britain, France and Germany have signed security agreements with Ukraine, and Europe is playing an increasingly important role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The U.S. election year has intensified the infighting between the two parties, resulting in the inability to pass the aid bill for Ukraine, and there are great variables.
2024 could be the most critical year. Due to the protracted delay in US aid to Ukraine, the Ukrainian army is in a difficult situation. After the defeat in the summer of 2023, the question is no longer about when Ukraine will be able to drive the Russian army out, but whether Ukraine will be able to hold the existing line of defense.
Since 2024, the Russian army has launched ** in many places, conquering Maryinka and Avdeyevka one after another. If U.S. aid continues to be sluggish, Russia will seize the opportunity to increase investment in order to completely defeat the Ukrainian army.
Therefore, after the capture of Avdeyevka, it is worth paying attention to whether Russia can break through the next line of defense of the Ukrainian army, and whether it can break the situation of who attacks and who loses, and the war in the first half of 2024 will be crucial. If Russia can make a breakthrough, it is possible that Ukraine and the West will seek to negotiate with Russia under pressure.
If Russia is still unable to break through the Ukrainian defense line in the case of reduced Western aid, the front line has not changed much, and the war situation continues to stalemate, so that the significance of Russia and Ukraine to continue to fight will be reduced. Because it means that neither side can break the deadlock, but can only engage in unnecessary attrition, when the intensity of the war begins to decrease, and the possibility of peace talks will also increase.
After the United States, the parties may discuss a cease-fire plan, but the process of peace talks is not destined to go smoothly, because both sides suspect that the other side is using the peace talks to win a respite, and after a short cease-fire, there will be a new round of conflicts, forming a situation of stopping, talking, and fighting.
Although 2024 is the year of decisive battle, it will take time for the Russia-Ukraine conflict to end completely. At present, it seems that the structural contradictions between Russia and the West on the issue of the European security framework will be difficult to resolve, and the Ukraine crisis may persist for a long time, and the confrontation between Russia and NATO will continue for a long time.