The dust has landed in 2023, and major pig companies have successively released performance forecasts. Under the super cycle, Muyuan, Wen's, Aonong and other enterprises lost nearly 21.8 billionBut what is surprising is that Zhengbang turned losses into profits, and the annual profit was as high as 10 billion. For the industry trend in 2024, Muyuan said that the number of live pigs is expected to decline, and it is expected to be more optimistic. However, some people believe that 2024 will become a key year for the "survival of the fittest" of pig enterprises, and the protagonist of production capacity elimination will become medium and large pig enterprises.
According to Muyuan's announcement, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to lose 3.8 billion yuan and 4.6 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 149 in the same period last year3.3 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to lose 3.9 billion yuan and 4.7 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 132 in the same period last year6.6 billion yuan, net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to lose 3.7 billion yuan 4.5 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 146 percent in the same period last year900 million yuan.
In this way, on the basis of increasing the production capacity of pigs by about 2.6 million heads, Muyuan's profit in 2023 will decrease by about 19 billion! With such a large profit loss, it is no wonder that investors' confidence in pork stocks is getting lower and lower, and even the stock price of pig grass itself has suffered "Waterloo" several times.
In the end, Muyuan announced that the basic earnings per share in 2023 are expected to lose 073 yuan 087 yuan, a profit of 2 in the same period last year49 yuan.
Further, from the point of view of production costs,Muyuan's meat production cost in 2022 is 157 yuan kg, the cost of meat production will be reduced in 202315 yuan kg, down 07 yuan kg.
Based on the average weight of 120 kg of Muyuan, the average breeding cost of its head in 2023 will be about 1,800 yuan, a decrease of about 84 yuan compared with 2022; Combined with the annual sales of Muyuan 6381With a huge production capacity of 60,000 heads, it can be seen that Muyuan will save about 53% by reducing costs in 2023600 million yuan!
But I believe that many friends still remember that Muyuan hopes to "dig deep and reduce the cost of pig raising by another 600 yuan!" "Judging from the cost fluctuations throughout 2023, it is indeed very difficult to achieve a cost reduction of 600 yuan, especially when its cost is already in the leading position in the industry.
It can be seen that it will be more and more difficult to reduce the cost of the breeding industry, and even if it reaches the "pastoral level", it is difficult to ensure profitability, but pig breeding is entering the era of meager profits, so the "cost pressure, cash pressure, and stock price pressure" of other large pig enterprises in 2024 will be greater, and the wave of survival of the fittest is sweeping.
According to the announcements of various pig enterprises, Muyuan has a pre-loss of 3.9-4.7 billion, Wen's pre-loss of 6.0-6.5 billion, Aonong's pre-loss of 3.0-3.6 billion, Tianbang's pre-loss of 2.6-2.9 billion, Dabeinong's pre-loss of 1.8-2.2 billion, and Tangrenshen's pre-loss of 135-16.500 million, Tiankang Biotechnology has a pre-loss of 1.4-1.6 billion, and Shennong Group has a pre-loss of 355-4.3.5 billion, Jin Xinnong pre-loss 395-5.8.5 billion, Dawnrays shares pre-loss of 48-5.400 million, Huatong shares pre-loss of 49-6.100 million, Zhenghong Technology pre-loss 11-1.500 million.
Accordingly, it is calculated,The above 12 pig companies will have a minimum loss of 218 in 2023800 million!
Among all pig enterprises, the largest loss is Wen's, who will make a profit of 52 in 20228.9 billion, the cost of breeding is also by 172 yuan kg is reduced to about 16 yuan kg. It can be seen that Wen's cost reduction results are very good, but they are still too high.
And the most dangerous enterprise has changed from "Zhengbang" to "Aonong".
Aonong Biotech issued an announcement on the evening of January 30DisplayIt is expected that the net assets attributable to shareholders of listed companies at the end of 2023 will be -700 million yuan to -1 billion yuan. If the company's audited net assets at the end of 2023 are negative, the company** may be subject to a delisting risk alert by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The negative news in the industry about the retirement and arrears of Aonong pig farms has been reported frequently, which shows that its cash pressure is indeed not small.
It is worth mentioning that when Zhengbang was facing the risk of delisting, it was vigorously supported by relevant units and state-owned assets, and finally stabilized the original "second largest pig enterprise in the country" from thunderstorms. Now, although Zhengbang has invested in the twins, it has also released the good news of "10 billion profits in 2023".
According to *ST Zhengbang's announcement on the evening of January 26, it is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023 will be 8 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year.
But Zhengbang relied on neither raising pigs nor feed, but "selling itself".According to the court's ruling, the total amount of the creditor's rights award is 2699.2 billion yuan, Zhengbang's implementation of the equity for debt restructuring income is expected to be about 17.5 billion yuan 18.5 billion yuan, the above reorganization income included in non-recurring profit and loss.
In fact, purely from the perspective of pig business, Zhengbang still loses 3 billion to 4 billion yuan. But in the past two years, Zhengbang has significantly reduced its pig production capacity, from the peak of 1492670,000 head fell to 547850,000 heads, nearly 1 3 production capacity.
And judging from the pig price situation in 2024, Zhengbang does not rule out the possibility of continuing to reduce production. Although Zhengbang is now merged into the twins, it is unknown whether the twins will be profitable in 2023, after all, even Muyuan next door will inevitably lose money!
According to this, in 2024, Aonong and Zhengbang may further reduce production capacity.
But on the contrary, Makihara may increase production by about 10%!
Makihara recently revealed two important messages at the Investor Dialogue:
First, Muyuan is more optimistic about 2024, saying that on the supply side, the current breeding sows are still at a high level, but the overall trend is downward, and the number of live pigs in 2024 is expected to be lower than last year; On the demand side, as the economy gradually stabilizes, demand is expected to rise to a certain extent in 2024.
Second, Muyuan said that the number of sows that the company could reproduce at the end of December was 31290,000 heads, corresponding to the expected growth of about 10% in 2024.
This means that Muyuan is more optimistic about 2024, and there is a high probability that the production capacity will be increased to more than 70 million heads!
It's not a coincidenceWen'sAt the end of 2023, the number of fertile sows will also reach 1.57 million, an increase of 170,000 from the end of 2022, and an increase of about 108%。If you count the increase in the level of PSY, perhaps Wen's final slaughter volume in 2024 will increase by more than 10% (2.6 million heads).
On the whole, pig enterprises have ushered in a "watershed" in the pig cycle, such as Muyuan, Wen's head pig enterprises, its production increase of 10% has been higher than the full production capacity of most pig enterprises! This also confirms the sentence, as long as the head pig enterprises still have money and can improve, their pace of expansion will not be completely stagnant. Someone withdraws, someone expands, and the pig can be as low as **?
It is not others who create the "era of low profits", but the big pig enterprises themselves.