Jiwei reported that when the news of postponement and postponement of the construction of factories in the United States continued to come out, the speed of TSMC's construction of factories in Japan was entering "acceleration".
In addition to TSMC's official announcement in 2021 that the Kumamoto Prefecture factory will be put into operation this year, the blueprint for the "second plant" of TSMC's Japanese subsidiary JASM has also been officially released, and it is planned to start construction at the end of 2024, with a process of 6nm. In addition, TSMC is also considering the construction of the "Kumamoto No. 3 Factory" capable of producing 3nm chips.
With three consecutive starts in the factory and a backgammon process, what kind of chess is TSMC playing? How will TSMC's Japanese narrative play out?
"Second and third factories" one after another
The smooth progress of TSMC's first factory in Japan can be said to have made a good start. The construction of the plant was announced in November 2021, construction began in April 2022, construction was completed in two years, and it will open in February 2024 and mass production by the end of the year. Among them, TSMC holds 70% of the shares, Sony has about 20%, and Toyota Group Denso has about 10%. The planned production capacity is 550,000 12-inch wafers using 22 28nm to 12 16nm processes.
If this move can be regarded as "step-by-step", the next second and third factories are quite meaningful.
According to TSMC, the construction of the new factory will begin at the end of this year and start production in 2027. With the commissioning of the Kumamoto Fab 2, the entire JASM Kumamoto plant will have a production capacity of 100,000 12-inch wafers per month, in addition to 6 7nm process technology.
Not only that, TSMC is already considering expanding the production of the 3nm process to Japan. According to the news, TSMC has informed the ** chain partners that it is considering building a "Kumamoto No. 3 Factory" that can produce 3nm chips.
Regarding this news, an industry insider Chen Yu (pseudonym) said bluntlyIn the past, TSMC generally only transferred the nodes below the second two generations when setting up factories in other places, for example, TSMC is currently the most advanced 3nm, so the highest transfer to Japan can only be 16nm, but now it is directly announced that the 3nm process will be transferred to Japan, which is very unreasonable, and it is basically giving up the core technology know-how.
But judging from the timeline, it may not be so "aggressive" yet. Jiwei Consulting pointed outTSMC continues to build factories in Japan, and there needs to be a progression in the nodes. Now the first plant is completed, and then the second plant will be built at the end of the year, and the third plant is estimated to be built after the second plant is completed and started, and it may start in about 3 years, plus the construction time or 6 years later, even if it is a 3nm process, it is not the most advanced in the world. Initially, according to the calculation of one node in two years, the process should have advanced two or three generations at the 3nm node.
Although TSMC's global expansion is underway, the first factory in Arizona is scheduled to start production in 2025, and the factory in Dresden, eastern Germany, is scheduled to start production in 2027. However, behind the continuous generation of the three factories in Japan, the process is from 28nm to 6nm and then to 3nm, and a "plate" covering mature processes and advanced processes has quietly taken shape, which is really worth studying.
Industry experts said to Jiwei.comTSMC's overseas expansion and global expansion are in line with the interests of the United States, and TSMC's fanfare in Japan and the construction of a foundry chain excluding China seems to be gradually taking shape, which once again shows that the United States cannot change. Moreover, when TSMC's construction of a factory in the United States is affected by multiple factors, Japan's basic conditions are better than those of the United States, and it is in the interests of all parties to expand in Japan.
It is true that TSMC is still facing challenges in terms of production capacity and profitability in building factories in Japan, but a continuous "upgrading" of advanced technology in Japan has been slowly unfolding.
The second factory is aiming at automotive chips?
Regardless of whether 3nm is TSMC's "smokescreen", the second factory has been nailed, and TSMC issued an announcement to no more than 52$6.2 billion in capital increase in JASSM.
In addition, Toyota Motor has taken a stake in JASM as a new investor and has become a minority shareholder along with Sony and Denso. TSMC will hold 86 of the JASM5% of the shares, while Toyota, Sony and Denso will hold % and 5., respectively5% equity.
It is worth noting that the process of the second plant looks at 6nm. According to the plan, through these two fabs,The total monthly production capacity of the JASM Kumamoto wafer fab is expected to exceed 100,000 wafers12inchesWafers, for automotive, industrial, highperformance calculations, etcThe app offers 22 28nmnmand 6 7nmprocess technology.
The above-mentioned expert notedKumamoto No. 1 Factory mainly cooperates with SonyOEM service for Sony ISP; Kumamoto Plant 2Process upgrade to 6nm, thenIt may be studied in close cooperation with ToyotaDeveloped fromDynamic driving and intelligenceCockpit chips.
For TSMC, this may be a double benefit.
According to the analysis of Jiwei Consulting, the current highest process of automotive chip foundry is 5nm, which is not as extreme as the pursuit of the most advanced technology such as mobile phone chips and GPUs, because automotive chips have higher requirements for safety and stability, and at the same time, it is difficult to certify vehicle specifications.
In recent years, TSMC has also been working on vehicle specification chips, after all, this track contains huge market opportunities. In 2020, TSMC launched a 7nm-based automotive design support platform, which covers the entire process of automotive chip design, manufacturing, application, and ecology. In the third quarter of 2022, TSMC launched the 5nm automotive chip platform "N5A". The platform is aimed at automotive cockpit and autonomous driving, and complies with three major automotive process standards.
With the "TSMC + Qualcomm" model, a trend has been set off in the field of automotive chips. The Qualcomm 8155, the world's first 7nm automotive cockpit chip manufactured by TSMC, became famous, and other manufacturers quickly followed suit and quickly iterated the automotive cockpit chip to 7nm; Last year, Qualcomm's cockpit chip Snapdragon 8295 adopted the 5nm process, which once again promoted the iterative upgrade of automotive chips.
Therefore, in the 6nm layout of Japan's second factory, Jiwei Consulting believes thatOn the one hand, TSMC can successfully enter the first chain of the Japanese automobile industry, and Toyota may provide customized chips to support production capacity; On the other hand, the promotion of automotive chips to advanced processes will also continue to improve TSMC's "profit pool" and occupy a dominant position in the subsequent automotive chip foundry market.
Japanese OEM "last mover first come".
The reason why TSMC continues to "increase its position" in Japan has to be said that Japan is "powerful".
In recent years, in the midst of geopolitical games, strengthening the return of semiconductor manufacturing industry and realizing the independent security of the first chain have become the top priorities of major semiconductor countries. Japan has also launched the "Semiconductor Strategy" to promote the development of the foundry industry with the strength of the whole country to play its own strong voice.
It can be said that Japan's sincerity is full, and the huge subsidies and appropriations are also really audible. TSMC CEO Wei Zhejia said in October that the Japanese factory is expected to start mass production by the end of 2024, and Japan** has decided to provide subsidies of up to 476 billion yen to the first factory. According to some analysts, the subsidy amounted to as much as 42% of the investment.
TSMC also revealed that the capital increase will bring the total investment amount of JASM to $20 billion. The capital expenditure of the Kumamoto No. 2 Plant is estimated at 2 trillion yen (about 13 billion U.S. dollars).Among them, Japan** is considering providing subsidies of 900 billion yen.
In contrast, TSMC's Arizona plant in the United States is stuck in subsidies and labor issues, which will be postponed for one year to 2025; The Dresden plant in Germany is still in the process of site selection, labor planning and other preliminary operations. The successful opening of TSMC's first factory in Japan is also a kind of "knocking" to a certain extent.
Moreover, in addition to TSMC, giants such as Micron, Samsung Electronics, and PSMC will also become Japan's "guests". In addition, Japan** has also supported a local "chip national team" Rapidus, which is focusing on the mass production of 2nm process.
Driven by a series of combination punches, Japan has gradually shown a trend of "catching up behind" in advanced technology. As we all know, before TSMC invested in Japan, the most advanced process that the country could produce was only 40nm. Nowadays,With the help of TSMC, Japan will not only "make up for the shortcomings" in the 22 28nm to 6nm process process, but also further strengthen Japan's autonomy and security in the field of contract manufacturing.
Chen Yu further analyzed, Japan occupies a core advantage in the field of semiconductor equipment and materials, and the production capacity demand for automotive chips, sensors and MCUs is also rising, after making up for the important "puzzle" of advanced technology, it is expected that Japan will increase its share in the advanced technology market from no significant share in 2022 to 3% in 2027, Japan's semiconductor process may advance by leaps and bounds, and it is even more alarming for the mainland industry.