As a green, low-carbon and clean energy, hydrogen energy is an important track for the optimization and upgrading of energy structure. Recently, policies favorable to the development of hydrogen energy have been frequently issued, among which hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have attracted much attention.
At present, the development scale of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China is growing. Xie Xiaowen, an expert member of the New Technology Promotion Branch of the China Communications and Transportation Association, said in an interview with a reporter from China City Daily that the strong support and market demand in some places have made more and more car manufacturers begin to develop and produce hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. At the same time, infrastructure such as hydrogen refueling stations is also gradually improving, providing better conditions for the promotion and application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
When will hydrogen fuel cell vehicles be rolled out on a large scale? What are the constraints and challenges that are still being faced? What's next?
Whether it can replace lithium battery vehicles
As a leading field for the application of hydrogen energy industry, what are the advantages of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?
Wang Jianing, partner of Capital Construction Investment, said: "Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have three characteristics: first, zero emissions, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles only produce water vapor during operation, no exhaust emissions, and are a real zero-carbon emission vehicle. The second is high energy efficiency, hydrogen fuel cells directly convert chemical energy into electrical energy, and the energy conversion efficiency is higher, which is more efficient than the combustion process of internal combustion engines. The third is energy diversity, hydrogen can be obtained through a variety of ways, including renewable energy electrolysis of water, industrial by-product hydrogen, etc., which can get rid of dependence on fossil energy and contribute to the diversification of the energy structure. ”
Compared to lithium batteries, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles also have better performance.
Previously, about 1,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles were used in the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, which was the world's largest demonstration operation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
It is understood that the cruising range of a single hydrogen refueling of the group car used in the Winter Olympics is about 500 kilometers, and the hydrogen refueling time is 10-15 minutes, which can greatly save fuel refueling time compared with lithium batteries. In addition, compared with the power attenuation of lithium batteries in low temperature and ultra-low temperature environments, hydrogen fuel cells have superior low temperature performance, which can achieve low temperature starting at minus 30 and storage at minus 40, and the power attenuation problem can be effectively solved.
In fact, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and lithium battery vehicles are important technical routes for new energy vehicles. So, is it possible for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to completely replace lithium-ion battery vehicles in the future?
Yuan Shuai, deputy secretary-general of the Zhongguancun Internet of Things Industry Alliance and executive director of the high-quality development promotion project of specialized and special new enterprises, said that this also requires further technological innovation and market verification. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles also have a longer lifespan than lithium-ion battery vehicles and have relatively low maintenance costs. However, at present, lithium battery vehicles still have certain advantages in terms of cruising range and charging facilities, so hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and lithium battery vehicles may compete and complement each other in the future market.
According to the China Hydrogen Energy Industry Outlook Report, the demand of the transportation sector is growing rapidly, becoming the second largest application sector after the industrial sector, and fuel cell vehicles will achieve diversified and complementary development with electric vehicles. In the field of passenger cars, pure electric vehicles will occupy an absolute advantage; In the field of commercial vehicles, hydrogen vehicles will give full play to the advantages of long distance and high load, and accelerate the penetration of hard-to-electrify models such as heavy trucks, intercity logistics, and buses.
In this regard, Wang Jianing also holds a similar view. He said that whether hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can completely replace lithium battery vehicles depends on a number of factors such as technological progress, cost reduction, infrastructure construction (such as hydrogen refueling station networks), and the maturity of the entire hydrogen energy industry chain. At present, it seems that the two will coexist and develop in the coming period, each serving different application scenarios and market needs.
The promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been accelerated in many places
China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are entering the fast lane.
According to the report released by the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, in 2022, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will increase by 3,367 units, and the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will reach 12,682, a year-on-year increase of about 36%; 358 hydrogen refueling stations were built, a year-on-year increase of more than 40%.
Although the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China is in its infancy, it has a certain scale, and it has been rapidly developed under the vigorous promotion of the first place, especially in the application of demonstration projects and key cities. With the introduction of policies and the acceleration of industrial layout in various regions, it is expected that China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market will further expand by 2025. Wang Jianing said.
From a policy perspective, the top-level design related to hydrogen energy has been gradually improved.
Recently, the Ministry of Finance and other ministries and commissions have conducted an assessment and evaluation of the first year of the fuel cell vehicle demonstration city agglomeration. According to the assessment results, the government allocated 3500 million yuan.
The reporter learned that the tasks of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei fuel cell vehicle demonstration city agglomeration are progressing smoothly, and 1,239 fuel cell vehicles have been licensed in the first year, of which 1,162 have actually been connected to the national and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei demonstration platforms, with a total mileage of more than 8.44 million kilometers.
Regarding the promoting role of demonstration urban agglomerations, Wan Gang, chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, said at the first China Fuel Cell Vehicle Conference that if all the five demonstration urban agglomerations are opened up and turned into global hydrogen fuel vehicle demonstrations, high-quality competition will be triggered. It is hoped that all demonstration urban agglomerations will be connected to the best of their ability, and it is believed that the current scenario of the electric vehicle industry will also appear in the field of fuel cell vehicles.
At the same time, many places have successively introduced relevant policies to support the development of the hydrogen energy industry, and actively carried out the demonstration application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
On January 26, the Development and Reform Commission of Baoding City, Hebei Province issued the "Ten Measures to Support the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry in Baoding City", which clearly supports the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles and sets up a special fund of 200 million yuan for the development of hydrogen energy industry in Baoding City to ensure the demonstration application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen**, hydrogen refueling stations (including comprehensive energy stations), public service platforms, etc.
Previously, on January 8, the "Three-year Action Plan for the High-quality Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry in Anhui Province" issued by the Anhui Provincial Development and Reform Commission made it clear that by 2025, the total industrial output value will reach more than 50 billion yuan, and the promotion of fuel cell vehicles will reach more than 2,000. On January 9, the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry in Hainan Province (2023-2035)" jointly issued by the Hainan Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other 8 departments proposed to give full play to the policy advantages of a complete ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030, and gradually establish a complementary development model for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and pure electric vehicles.
Yuan Shuai said that the country has issued a series of policies to support the research and development and industrialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and various localities are also actively planning the development of the hydrogen energy industry. In the field of public transportation, some cities have begun to experiment with the use of hydrogen fuel cell buses, taxis, and intercity buses, etc., and have gained some operational experience. At the same time, some automakers are also accelerating the development and production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, actively promoting the commercialization process.
Zhang Xinyuan, head of research at the Co-Found think tank, believes that overall, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is still small, and more promotion and application are needed.
How to solve the high-cost problem
In the long run, hydrogen fuel cell buses have great development potential.
Taking Beijing as an example, the "Beijing Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Vehicle Hydrogen Refueling Station Development Plan (2021-2025)" points out that at this stage, traditional fuel vehicles in suburban mountainous areas and remote suburban mountainous routes have the potential to replace hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. It is estimated that the scale of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Beijing in seven types of application scenarios can be promoted to 13700,000 units.
A few days ago, hydrogen fuel cell buses in many cities have been put into operation.
On January 20, the first hydrogen fuel cell bus line in Hefei, Anhui Province was put into operation, and the first batch of 23 hydrogen buses were demonstrated, of which 10 hydrogen buses were put into operation on January 20, and the other 13 hydrogen buses were planned to be put into operation by the end of April; On January 30, the first hydrogen energy bus demonstration line No. 908 bus line in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province was opened for ...... in Qingxu County
In Wang Jianing's view, the reason why hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are mainly used in the field of public transportation is that it is relatively easy to implement centralized vehicle management, fixed line operation and hydrogen refueling station layout in this field.
When will hydrogen fuel cell vehicles be rolled out on a large scale? This is a common concern for the entire industry.
According to the CITIC ** research report, domestic fuel cell vehicle sales are expected to exceed 10,000 units in 2024, and the target of 50,000 units planned by the policy may be achieved in 2025, and it is expected to double for two consecutive years. Large-scale superposition of domestic substitution, the average annual cost reduction of fuel cell systems in the next three years may exceed 15%.
The reporter learned that the current high cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is one of the key factors restricting its large-scale application.
Wang Jianing said that the cost of hydrogen production, storage, transportation and distribution is relatively high, especially the technical economics of green hydrogen production (such as through water electrolysis) need to be improved.
In addition, hydrogen refueling stations and core technologies also need to be strengthened. Wang Jianing further analyzed that at present, the construction of hydrogen refueling station network is lagging behind, and compared with the widely distributed traditional gas stations and rapidly developing electric vehicle charging facilities, the number of hydrogen refueling stations is extremely limited, which has become one of the key factors hindering the popularization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In terms of technology maturity and standardization, the core technologies and key components of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, such as stacks and hydrogen storage systems, need to further improve performance, reduce costs, and achieve industrialization and standardization. In addition, in terms of safety and public acceptance, although the safety of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been verified, the public's safety concerns and lack of awareness about the use of hydrogen have also affected their market acceptance.
In response to these challenges, Zhang Xinyuan suggested that this requires the joint efforts of enterprises, enterprises and all aspects of society. **Policy support and guidance can be strengthened to promote the improvement and maturity of the hydrogen energy industry chain; Enterprises can increase R&D investment, reduce manufacturing costs and selling prices, and improve the performance and safety of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; At the social level, publicity and promotion can be strengthened to improve public awareness and acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. At the same time, it is also necessary to further explore the commercialization and promotion mode of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, such as cooperating with public transportation fields such as buses, taxis, and logistics, to explore a wider range of commercial application scenarios.
Zhu Lina, a reporter from China City Daily.