In China's liquor consumption market, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Economic Circle is not only an important strategic market, but also a "lookout" for liquor to go overseas. The population, economic aggregate, consumption capacity, and food and beverage consumption in the Greater Bay Area all provide an excellent environment for the liquor consumption market. However, last year, the liquor market showed a scene of "hot on the outside and cold on the inside", so what are the characteristics of liquor consumption in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, which is the highland of consumption?
In order to gain insight into the consumption trend of the liquor industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, under the guidance of the Guangdong Liquor Industry Association, the Nandu Bay Finance Society-Liquor New Consumption Index Research Group officially launched the "Bay Area Liquor Price" index product in March last year.
The research team takes national famous liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Guotai, Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, Xijiu, Langjiu, and Guangdong liquor brands as the main targets, and through in-depth insight into the trends of offline large-scale supermarkets, liquor professional chains, dealer stores and online e-commerce, the average retail price of each brand in the Greater Bay Area and the liquor consumption market in the Bay Area are regularly released on the Nandu APP "Bay Area Liquor News" and "Bay Liquor Observation" WeChat***, so as to present the fluctuations of famous liquor in a more intuitive and comprehensive way.
As of December 31 last year, the research group has compiled and released a total of 22 issues of "Bay Area Liquor Prices", from which it has also discovered the best trend of famous liquor products and the new highlights and trends presented by the liquor consumption market in the Bay Area.
In terms of the overall ** trend, the average retail price of the sampled wines fluctuated significantly last year. Among them, Kweichow Moutai (hereinafter referred to as Feitian Moutai), the "wind vane" of the liquor industry, has fluctuated significantly, with the highest average price exceeding 3,000 yuan per bottle, but also dropping to 2,700 yuan per bottleIn terms of high-end ** band, the eighth generation of Wuliangye, Qinghualang, etc. once dropped to 1000 yuan bottles, and then **rebounded, Guojiao 1573 and Junpin Xijiu continued to decline, and the current average price hovered around 1000 yuanIn terms of sub-high-end and mid-range, Dream Blue M6+, Gujing Gongjiu Gu 20, Qinghua Fen 20, etc. remained stable, and the summary treasures** continued to decline.
Traditional channels
The price of supermarkets is high, and the retail price of dealers is often "broken".
Offline supermarkets are the traditional channels for wine sales, and they are also the window to observe the downward trend of wine prices. In this regard, the research group used RT-Mart, Wal-Mart and China Resources Vanguard as the main collection channels in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Taking the three major terminals in Guangzhou as an example, RT-Mart products are at a high price, and Wuliangye and other products are at the recommended retail price**;Wal-Mart's various categories of liquor ** float more, but nodes such as "Double 11" are more discounted;In terms of Vanguard of China, some sample wines** have remained stable. In Shenzhen, there are more preferential subsidies, such as China Resources Vanguard, which has preferential measures for wine every week in Shenzhen, such as superimposing full reductions and other indirect reductions to reduce wine pricesHowever, Wal-Mart, RT-Mart, etc., some sample wines** still maintained stable sales.
However, the research team also noticed that due to the influence of factors such as channel purchase fees and the layout of wine companies, these three major supermarkets have not been able to fully cover the samples, such as RT-Mart, Wal-Mart and other most of the medium-priced wines that have not broken 1,000 yuan, and some high-end wines of China Resources Vanguard are out of stock or not distributed.
Of course, in the traditional liquor sales channel, the role of distributors plays a pivotal role. Although the distributor's ** system is mainly measured by the wholesale price, the terminal selling price will also affect the wholesale price in turn, so from the first phase of the wine price, the research team has selected two distributors as the object of ** statistics.
Since 2023, the batch price of Feitian Moutai has fluctuated greatly, for example, in the first phase of wine price statistics, the retail price of Feitian Moutai given by dealers is 2900 yuan bottles, and when it comes to the 10th period of wine price (June), the retail ** goes to 3000 yuan bottles, but with the beginning of the decline in September, ** once fell to 2799 yuan bottles. As far as the latest dealers are concerned, the current retail price of Feitian Moutai is about 2,800 yuan per bottle.
In fact, in the liquor industry, except for Feitian Moutai, other liquors are basically sold below the recommended retail price, and from the retail price quoted by the distributor, it is easier to reflect the real ** of the product in the market. In the 22nd phase of liquor price statistics, a number of liquor products in the sample showed a "roller coaster" price decline.
Taking Guojiao 1573 as an example, the product continues to decline in the dealers' **, among which the latest 22 liquor prices, Guojiao 1573** is about 969 yuan per bottle;According to the statistics of the research group, starting from the 6th phase of wine price statistics in April 2023, the product has reached 999 yuan per bottle. In addition, last year, the summary of rare wines that has been widely reflected by the market, its ** has been running at a low level, starting from the 18th phase of wine price statistics, the retail price of rare wine abstracts in dealer channels is about 620 yuan bottles.
Overall, the retail sales provided by dealers are relatively lower than other sales channels, especially in terms of high-end products, which have advantages over other channels, but from the perspective of price support, dealer channels are more likely to break prices and even invert.
Online e-commerce channels
Traditional e-commerce is stable, and community new retail fluctuates greatly
In the online e-commerce channel, the research group used traditional e-commerce platforms, wine e-commerce platforms and community e-commerce as sampling platforms for statistics.
In terms of traditional e-commerce, the research team chose the brand of sample liquor, so the product remained relatively stable.
On the whole, Tmall and JD.com's liquor prices were stable in the first 16 periods of Bay Area liquor prices, and the fluctuations were small. However, in the recent 6 phases of the Bay Area wine price, due to various e-commerce activities and festivals at the end of the year, the ** and mid-price wine ** have been significantly reduced. Taking Junpin Xijiu as an example, in the previous periods, most of its ** prices ranged from 1100 to 1200, and in the past 6 issues of the Bay Area wine price, the price of Tmall and Jingdong platforms has obvious banners, especially in the past 3 periods, its ** has also dropped below 1,000 yuan. At the same time, this is also the only wine in the Tmall Jingdong channel that has fallen below the 1,000-yuan mark within the scope of observation.
In terms of wine e-commerce, the research team took 1919 and Huazhi Liquor Store as the sample ** statistical platform, and the merchants stationed in it are operated in the mode of "offline stores + online", and some stores have the background of distributors, so the retail sales of sample liquor are of reference significance for the value of related liquor in the market.
According to the data, in the 22nd period of wine price statistics, the price effect of Huazhi Liquor Store is obvious, and the ** of some of its liquor is basically carried out in accordance with the recommended retail price, for example, the eighth generation of Wuliangye, in the 22nd period of the liquor price statistics, the external retail price is 1499 yuan bottle, and there is no ** fluctuation.
Another alcohol e-commerce platform, 1919, is showing a slow decline. For example, Jun Pin Xijiu, in the first 11 periods, ** remained at about 1,100 yuan bottles, in the last 11 periods** has dropped to about 1,000 yuan bottles, and some stores have fallen below 1,000 yuan bottles in the last two periods of wine price statistics.
In addition to the above two platforms, community new retail has become a new channel for residents' alcohol consumption. Starting from the 11th issue, the research group will use Seven Fresh and Hema as statistical platforms, and from the 22nd issue, the Pupu supermarket platform will be included in the new retail terminal of the community for statistics.
For example, in the 15th phase of wine price statistics, Guojiao 1573 was as low as 999 yuan bottles, but it has rebounded since the 16th period. In terms of Freshippo, Gujing Gongjiu Gu 20, ** was as low as 688 yuan bottle.
In the statistical process, the research team also noticed that the sub-high-end and mid-range liquor models of the two platforms remained stable, but the pricing difference between the two major platforms of Guotai and national standard wine was large, and the price of the product on the Qixian platform has been 599 yuan bottles, and the Hema platform was priced at 399 yuan bottles.
Trend review
High inventory causes **inverted, resulting in frequent fluctuations in terminals**
Through the statistics of liquor prices in 22 issues, the research team found that last year, liquor had a large fluctuation at the retail end, and the main reason was the instability of the wholesale of related products. Last year, affected by factors such as high inventory and insufficient social purchasing power, many high-end liquor sales** were under pressure, and the upside-down tide of liquor intensified, which directly affected the performance of the terminal retail price of liquor.
*In the case of upside down, some products appear terminal** confusion. According to the statistics of the 13th issue of "Bay Area Liquor Price" of Liquor Red Altar 20, the average retail price of this product in the market is 57733 yuan, but in Hema Xiansheng, the price of this liquor product is 3795 yuan, compared with the retail price of 699 yuan for RT-Mart in Shenzhen and 668 yuan for Wal-Mart in Guangzhou, Hema is almost halved.
In fact, the downward trend or even upside down of the product is related to the pressure that the distillery gives to the distributor. According to the "2023 China Liquor Market Interim Research Report" released by the China Liquor Industry Association, many companies and distributors have still not been able to digest last year's inventory backlog. In this context, dealers can not keep up with the speed of the winery's stocking, in order to complete the distillery's tasks and funds, they can only release goods to the channel at a low price, and over time, there is too much wine in the market, and dealers continue to dump, which eventually leads to the product
The research team noticed that last year, wine companies adopted a variety of ways to raise prices for products. For example, enterprises such as Langjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu have taken measures such as stopping orders to control the price of some products; For example, Jiannanchun, Luzhou Laojiao, etc., have increased the ex-factory price of some products. In addition to the high price, there are also some enterprises, such as Wuliangye, Shede Liquor, etc., have "loosened" by reducing the prepayment of dealers or slowing down the payment collection to alleviate the upside down.
However, industry players are taking a wait-and-see attitude.
Wang Chaocheng, chairman of Shengchu Group, said that although the consumption scene has recovered on a large scale, the recovery of high-end and sub-high-end liquor is far less than expected.
Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Liquor Industry Association, also publicly stated that the decline in consumption and the slowdown in the growth of high-end consumption have promoted the leading enterprises to increase their participation in the product competition of the waist belt.
However, there are also positive voices in the market that inventory pressure is passing its peak. According to Everbright**'s analysis, as a vane to measure the strength of demand, in the third quarter of 2023, the year-on-year decline in revenue of some expanding sub-high-end liquor companies narrowed, and the inventory of distributors improved significantly compared with the same period last year.
Outlook for the coming year
Wine companies improve confidence, channels clear inventory, and the Internet may become a "new force".
Under the influence of high inventory and inversion last year, the decline in the retail price of liquor products is also an inevitable situation, so entering 2024, will the aforementioned unfavorable situation change? What are the new changes for wine companies, channels and distributors?
For wine companies, boosting the confidence of distributors has been a "compulsory course" this year.
At the end of 2023, major liquor companies such as Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Jiuguijiu Liquor will intensively hold dealer conferences, and successively set the tone of business strategies, channel play, marketing policies and good start strategies for 2024. With the holding of the Wine Business Conference, many wine companies are optimistic about the development in 2024 and have set their goals to achieve recovery growth.
The industry believes that the competitive trend of the liquor market this year will be dominated by destocking, and the sooner the liquor companies clear the channel inventory, the sooner they will take the lead in development. At the same time, in the case of high channel inventory, wine companies will be more cautious in raising prices.
For dealers, "clearance and inventory reduction" is this year's theme.
After the impact of the short recovery of the market at the beginning of 2023 and the subsequent long-term sluggish terminal inventory sales, this year will be more cautious about getting liquor products soon. On the whole, last year, under the high growth demand of wine companies, distributors frequently encountered channel pressure, which made distributors, especially small and medium-sized distributors, face great pressure.
The peak season is not prosperous, funds are tight, and inventory is high, which is the key to the weakening of dealers' willingness to pay. Among them, there are representatives of large wine merchants on the wine companies, expressing the huge pressure that dealers are currently facing, Chen Guosuo, general manager of Jiangsu Sutang Sugar and Liquor Food, once mentioned the huge pressure on the channel last year: "Now everyone is destocking, wine listed companies, including the head enterprises, are still making great progress, (financial performance) Some are still double-digit growth." The more you grow, the more pressure we have."
Although most of the month before the Lunar New Year this year is the peak of liquor sales, judging from the consumption price of liquor last year and the inventory of dealers, the inventory consumption of liquor in the Lunar New Year this year is limited.
It is worth noting that the Internet may become a "new force" in circulation.
The research team found that Internet channels may play a more important role in liquor sales this year, and related liquor retail** may be further affected in the future. According to the analysis of the research group, under the tightening of demand, the best advantage under the platform subsidy well meets the cost-effective consumption psychology, and at the same time, under the digital connection, the service ability of liquor production enterprises has been further enhanced, and the stickiness with consumers has been further improved.
It is also worth noting that the rise of Internet channels has given wine companies the opportunity to regain control of pricing power, among which Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe and other leading wine companies have seen the growth of their Internet channels not to be underestimated. From this point of view, the extensive intervention of Internet channels is also expected to alleviate the problems of chaos on the retail side, and the winery has a stronger ability to control the terminal retail price, and the retail price on the online platform may be more stable.
What is the performance of liquor ** this year? How does the channel fluctuate? The Nandu Bay Finance Society-Wine New Consumption Index Research Group will continue to update the "Bay Area Wine Price" product to present the latest wine price trends in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to the public.
Producer: Liquor New Consumption Index Research Group of Southern Bay Area Financial News Center.
Curator: Wang Ying.
Co-ordinator: Ma Jianzhong
Written by: Nandu. Bay Finance Society reporter Bei Bei, Wang Jingjuan, Chen Yingshan, Qiu Kangzheng.