Is corn ** a return to the light? Will there be a bigger decline in the future?
Sometimes, the more you try to calm down, the less you can't.
Take corn, for example.
Now is the day of the New Year, according to past experience, when it comes to the New Year, ** should slowly fall, and at the end of the year, that is, the end of the year.
Whether it goes up or down, you have to wait for the New Year to know.
This time, however, something is different.
First of all, with the arrival of the New Year, the **corn is also continuous**.
This news made the entire corn industry excited and about to cry, and the previous ** made them lose a lot.
Although the increase is not large, it is also good news.
However, after the excitement passed, there were other voices coming from the corn market.
Some people are skeptical about this round of **, they think it's just a "flashback", or it may be a deliberate hype.
Why?
After all, the progress of grain sales has always been a "mystery".
The sales progress has been highly valued by the market, and many companies have done some basic surveys on this year's sales and come to different conclusions.
For example, some people think that in January, grain sales will be slow, but in January, after the new reserve program is launched, the pace of sales will become faster, and by the end of January, it will be the same as last year.
In particular, the grain sales in Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and other places have hardly changed compared with previous years.
However, some people say that this speed is more like an investment, because last year's corn yield was very high, and the yield was very high, but ** has been declining, many farmers are reluctant to buy, and businessmen are not willing to sell, so the corn they buy is sold to **?
Therefore, in the Northeast, the selling pressure is still very high, and this wave of rallies before the Spring Festival is more of a "return to the light", which first pushes the stock price very high, but after a period of time, it will be **, which catches people off guard.
So, this matter has caused a lot of uproar, and the entire corn industry has been thrown into chaos.
So, is this increase in food ** just a kind of "return to the light"?
I don't think so, for the following reasons:
First, this year's grain ** has been hit hard, and many people are selling grain in a panic.
Each price increase leads to a lower price for cereals, but with it a decrease in selling pressure.
Second, the force required is small, but not absolute.
What does it mean to be relatively weak?
This is because of the impact of the general environment, which leads to a decrease in terminal demand, which leads to a decrease in the inventory of enterprises, thereby reducing the number of inventories.
However, it is not for nothing, and this year's winemaking process is not bad.
In particular, sugar has remained at a high level over the past period, which has driven the demand for sucrose, which in turn has led to the demand for sucrose.
As for the feed, although the ** is very low, the yield is still very high, so many people need corn.
Therefore, his weakness does not mean that he has nothing.
Third, all sales channels are decreasing, and these grains are going to **?
And channel inventory is also a noteworthy issue, for example, there is a point of view that because the inventory of each channel is very small, when something unexpected happens, it will be reversed immediately.
This makes a lot of sense, but no one wants to bet on something that happens suddenly, because no one can say for sure, only luck.
And their stocks are very small, and when they are sold out, their grain will go to **?
I think there are several places to go :
First, material reserves.
The new purchase is not corn, but the grain of the central reserve, which was bought before the news of the new storage, but the ** at that time was too dazzling.
And now, the number of reserves is increasing and the number is increasing, and many warehouses have already been acquired.
After so many days, he had accumulated a lot of pills.
The second is because of the loss of energy.
Yes, everyone is saying that the market is less in demand than expected, but that doesn't mean the market isn't there.
In addition, despite the increase in food production last year, the gap between supply and demand has not been eliminated, but has decreased.
Therefore, theoretically speaking, the current food ** and demand are still relatively tight. With the price reduction of corn, all substitutes have been eliminated, and the current market is corn.
Since two years ago, many businessmen did not want to set up warehouses before the Spring Festival, but wanted to increase production, only to find that as time went by, the purchase speed of corn became faster and faster, which means that the final support of the market for corn still comes from the demand of the market.
Therefore, the author is more inclined to say that the rise of corn ** is a manifestation of the phased change in supply and demand, coupled with the support of the climate, which makes the market psychology change.
However, after the Spring Festival, there will still be a lot of pressure on grain, and grain prices will continue.
So, will corn continue this year?
It's a complicated issue and a lot of people are complaining about it, but I don't think it's a bad thing. There is still a possibility that the core of ** will fall, but it is unlikely to be significantly ** again. The specific reason will be discussed in a few days.
Thank you for reading! Like, like.