New Energy Prospect (ID: xinnengyuanqianzhan) original.
Text 丨 Shen XVI.
Editor丨 and smooth.
The knockout competition of the lithium battery industry will start in full swing in 2023.
According to the latest data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation AllianceFrom January to December 2023, a total of 52 power battery companies in China's new energy vehicle market have achieved vehicle installation, a decrease of 5 from the same period last year, and the elimination rate is close to 10%.
On the other hand, the top 10 power battery companies have a loading capacity of 3753GWh, accounting for 96 of the ** car volume8%。This compares to 93 in 20225% and 91 in 20208%, power battery companies year by year staged the stronger the stronger.
The low-ranking power battery companies are struggling.
Jiewei Power, a lithium battery factory owned by Fosun, is obviously one of them. From January to October 2023, the loading volume of Jiewei Power is only 088GWh, ranked 13th. Now, the company has been shut down for two months.
* Weibo New Energy Preview Screenshot.
Jiewei Power was established in 2009 with a registered capital of 121.8 billion yuan, is a 15-year-old lithium battery enterprise. used to be full of pride, "become the top 3 in the power battery industry within 5 years", "rank among the top 3 in the world within 10 years", "apply for an A-share IPO in 2022, and strive to be listed in 2023", after all, "die before you get out of the school".
Obviously, in the power battery industry, there are many battery manufacturers that are not as good as Jiewei Power. They are also facing many problems, even life and death tests, how to survive this cold winter?
The person in charge of the lithium battery manufacturer who has gone through the torment of 2023 will definitely miss 2022, especially the "small factory" of lithium battery.
Wu Sujun, a grassroots employee who has worked in Jiewei Power for more than ten years, once told ** that the company still has some orders in 2022, but the volume is not large. Mainly small mods, not finished products. In 2023, there will be no orders, and the factory can only do some battery repair work, about 200 sets per month.
Compared with more than 2,400 employees in the glory days, Jiewei Power only had about 400 people left in the headquarters before the shutdown, and another 200 people left after the shutdown. The 2022 annual report shows that the number of social security participants in Jiewei Power in 2022 will be 882, a sharp decrease of more than 70% in less than a year.
The shutdown of production lines records the cruelty of the lithium battery industry. The Shenzhen Communiqué of the 10th G20-Lithium Battery Summit disclosed that since 2023, the average capacity utilization rate of domestic power batteries has been less than 60%, and the capacity utilization rate of energy storage batteries has been less than 55%.
Figure: Jiewei power core workshop
* Jiewei Power Official** Screenshot of new energy prospect.
In fact, in addition to power battery companies such as Jiewei Power, there are also four major lithium battery materials (cathode materials, anode materials, separators and electrolytes) companies.
In terms of capacity utilization, a number of companies disclosed that the overall capacity utilization rate of the anode industry will be significantly reduced in 2023. Even the leading company Shangtai Technology announced the suspension of production in the first quarter of 2023.
On the evening of March 27, 2023, Shangtai Technology announced that the Licheng Road base would be discontinued. It is reported that the construction of Licheng Road Base began in 2008 and is the earliest production base of Shangtai Technology, as well as the origin and birthplace of the company's entrepreneurship, with an annual production capacity of more than 10,000 tons.
The supply and demand of the entire anode material industry have reversed and are facing a situation of overcapacity. Shangtai Technology made it clear in the announcement.
The performance of lithium iron phosphate cathode manufacturers in terms of operating rate is also relatively sluggish. Market data shows that in November 2023, the average operating rate of manufacturers was less than 50%, and since December, it has accelerated to about 20%. The production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has hit a new low since June 2023.
"Excess" has become the label of the lithium battery industry in 2023.
Mr. Gang An, the technology development of Jiewei Power, said that the company continued to invest in the construction of factories, which eventually led to overcapacity.
How many lithium batteries does Jiewei Power produce? According to the information on the company's official website, Jiewei Power has two production bases in Yancheng and Changxing, with an effective production capacity of 10GWh. Lu Chenli, CEO of Jiewei Power, announced in 2022 that the company plans to reach a power battery production capacity of 100GWh in 2025.
* Jiewei Power Official** Screenshot of new energy prospect.
Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, once predicted that by 2025, China's demand for power batteries will be 1,000GWh, and the industry's production capacity has reached 4,800GWh.
The four major materials of lithium battery also have varying degrees of surplus. According to some institutions**, the global electrolyte production capacity is planned to exceed demand by as much as 3.4 million tons in 2025.
Lithium battery factories and the four major material companies behind them delay the progress of production capacity and adopt a low-inventory procurement policy, which is also a means of self-help.
CATL's 2023 semi-annual report shows that its inventory is only 489100 million yuan, a decrease of 277 from the end of 2022600 million yuan inventory. The "third in the industry" China Innovation Airlines has slightly cleared its inventory, and its inventory has increased from 118 at the end of 2022200 million yuan decreased to 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 182%。
Enterprises in the upper and middle reaches of lithium batteries are kidnapped by the "game theory" of production capacity, forcing low inventory.
Jin Yiteng said that with the decline in the production schedule rhythm of downstream battery factories and the continuous decline in prices of midstream lithium battery materials due to overcapacity, battery factories have also adopted a lower raw material inventory procurement strategy, forcing midstream lithium battery materials companies to reduce start-ups, maintain low inventories, and delay the launch of new production capacity.
Low inventory is obtained on the premise of price reduction. Industry research institute Xinchun lithium battery data showsOn January 24, 2024, the average price of square lithium iron phosphate power and energy storage cells was 038 yuan wh, 043 yuan wh, compared with the beginning of 2023 0The ** drop of more than 50% is around 9 yuan wh,* which has come to an all-time low.
The severity of the price reduction can be seen. According to the statistics of Gaogong Lithium Battery, compared with 2022, the gross profit margin of separator listed companies in the third quarter of 2023 will decrease by about 40%, the electrolyte field will decrease by about 25%, the negative electrode field will decrease by about 20%, the ternary cathode will decrease by about 9%, and the iron-lithium cathode will decrease by about 5%.
After experiencing rapid growth in demand and production capacity, the lithium battery field is currently facing the challenge of overcapacity. Supply and demand are expected to deteriorate further in 2024 and moderate in 2025. Huatai ** pointed out.
Who will survive the imbalance between supply and demand in 2024?
Obviously, the discontinued Jiewei Power has been excluded, and may also appear in the list of "eliminated power battery enterprises" in the new year of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance.
Compared with the small battery factories that laid off employees and stopped production, the life of "big factories" was more moist. Previously, **Yibin Recruitment" frequently released the recruitment information of Sichuan Times New Energy Technology Company, and the recruitment positions included electrical engineers, project quality management engineers, SQA engineers, process engineers, battery cell process engineers, senior tax commissioners, reception drivers, etc.
New Energy Prospect learned from two CATL labor agency personnel that there is still a demand for engineers in CATL's Yibin factory. "The recruitment plan for cyber security and technology is a batch of recruitment, and there are new places to come. ”
This also confirms CATL's point of view"High-quality production capacity has always been scarce, and the production capacity of different lithium battery enterprises is significantly different, and the difference mainly comes from the technological innovation, manufacturing capacity, and management level of the enterprise. ”
In fact, the competition for high-quality production capacity between large factories is more intense.
After CATL launched the Kirin battery with an ultra-long range of 1,000 km in 2022, it launched the Shenxing super-rechargeable battery in August 2023, which is the world's first battery to achieve 4C supercharging in lithium iron phosphate, with an energy density of 170Wh kg and a range of more than 700 km.
* CATL WeChat*** New Energy Preview Screenshot.
And in 2024, models equipped with CATL's Shenxing super-rechargeable batteries will be mass-produced and delivered.
As a countermeasure, BYD's second-generation blade battery will be released in 2024. Its energy density is expected to reach 180 Wh kg and its range is also more than 700 km and even 1000 km.
Of course, the semi-solid-state batteries that emerged at the end of 2023 may also continue to expand their voice in 2024. High energy density, better thermal stability and battery life will be its killer features. However, compared with lithium iron phosphate batteries, ** is its biggest shortcoming.
Also unveiled at the same time as the semi-solid-state battery is the cross-border self-developed gold brick battery of ZEEKR. It is reported that the volume utilization rate of BRICS batteries is 837%, which is currently the world's highest volume utilization rate of power batteries. In the 10%-80% fast charging range, it can increase the range by more than 500km in 15 minutes of charging.
It is worth mentioning that the gold brick battery has been mass-produced and is equipped on the new model of ZEEKR 007.
There is no doubt about itIn 2024, there will be a collection of star products in the power battery rivers and lakes, and the lineup is huge. Who can have the last laugh, the new energy prospect will also continue to pay attention.
Reference: Xiaoqiang, Wang of China Innovation Aviation: Without battery overcapacity, there will be no survival of the fittest", *36 Krypton;
Sudden shutdown! The factory of a well-known enterprise has no order for a year, and the compensation must be paid in installments".
Title image** in Visual China.
Disclaimer: Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed in this article constitute investment advice to any person.