Text: It's really called Lu Jun.
A Landlord's Guide to Surviving in an Age of Property Depression (2024).
ThisIt is the change of the times, not the cycle of cycles
It is necessary to have a basic understanding of the property market
Yes, I would like to emphasize this to all of you.
Because at present, countless people are asking, when will the next cycle of the property market come.
After so much indifference, what policies can bring the market back to the state we are familiar with?
But what I want to say to you is that this is not a cycle of cycles, but a change of times.
The change of times refers to the scenes that we have been familiar with in the past 20 years, and the future will never come again.
SoonerIt's not coming.
Real estate has completely entered the era of low profits
For the industry itself, it has completely lost its sensitivity to the first, and the development of the city will also make the relationship between supply and demand appear more and more contrasting.
With the continuous improvement of the first quantity, the differentiation of value is becoming more and more obvious.
The root of these changes comes from the irreversible contraction of purchasing demand.
It is precisely because of the irreversibility of demand changes that the property market will enter a completely different cycle.
Therefore, for every property owner, the individual must have a long-term vision.
Don't focus on half a year or a year, don't care about one or two policies, and put the assets in hand in a 20-year cycle to compare and weigh them.
This is the first psychological preparation that every ordinary individual makes.
Do not earn the last copper plate
This sentence was said by a businessman.
In my eyes, real estate itself is becoming more and more obvious in nature.
After the buyer and the seller become more and more calm about the transaction, it has become the norm for each to take what they need, and they can reach a deal if they feel that it is suitable for each other and have similar needs.
And for the landlord, will he grit his teeth and insist on earning the last copper plate?
Of course, the house is personal, and how much to sell is up to you.
But the price of insisting on the last copper plate isThe surge in trading risk
Insisting on the most advanced unit behind not only means losing the opportunity to advantage, but also ushering in the potential risk of buying customers.
We can imagine why you want to earn the last copper plate when the other party happily went.
Hidden behind this may be a price that each individual cannot bear.
There are speculators in any track, but whether ordinary individuals have enough ability to hedge risks.
That's something I don't want you to face.
Therefore, in the right atmosphere, not earning the last copper plate is faced with the fact that it seems to earn a little less, but in exchange for more high-quality customers.
It is important to choose not only one who is willing to pay, but also one who can afford to pay.
Some money must be paid
In the process of real estate transactions, there are some money that cannot be saved.
For example, intermediary fees.
If you're trying to save on that expense, you're likely to pay elsewhere.
In the future, real estate transactions will inevitably become more complicated, and the complexity involved here is not only the complexity of the property itself, but also the complexity of purchasing power and customer group relationships.
At this time, it is necessary to intervene professionally enough.
In the future, it is inevitable that the real estate model will be closer and closer to the lawyer model or the insurance model.
Intermediaries exist not only to mediate, but also to reduce the risks that may exist in all transactions.
More and more landlords are willing to pay for agents, and there will be industry consensus on the model of the bilateral economy.
Of course, I think the charging model may also be adjusted in the future.
Perhaps in the future, the overall payment will be closer to that of a lawyer, giving the owner two options, which can be charged according to the points of the total price, or a standard service fee can be charged according to the service content.
But in any case, this fee must be paid.
Because as an individualAlmostThere is no way to bypass the existence of intermediaries in the second-hand housing transaction.
Almost all models of disintermediation in the industry have failed.
The few remaining companies with the slogan of going to intermediaries essentially hope to become another new intermediaryThe dragon slayer boy eventually became an evil dragon
Also, look at it from another angle.
We are choosing partners, and the other party is also using their way to choose their customer group, or leeks, at the big data level.
Compared with the choice of individuals by enterprises, it seems to be more cold-blooded
I once heard a colleague say to me that free is always the most expensiveBecause there will always be someone who will pay more for free
Therefore, some money must be paid, and the payment itself is the beginning of the guarantee.
So it's all liquidity
No business dies at a loss.
Because no one is going to do a loss-making business.
But almost all businesses die from cash flow.
Because everyone will forget about turnover because they don't lose money.
On the other hand, every company that has fallen in the real estate category, even if it is still saying that it is not insolvent at the moment before the collapse, is precisely because it does not have enough cash reserves that the huge enterprise collapses.
Therefore, whether our property is liquid or not will become our most important criterion.
The evaluation system for liquidity is very complex, and today I will briefly talk about my conclusion.
Whether liquidity is healthy depends on two numbers:1. Whether it has the ability to sell within five years; 2. Whether it has the ability not to sell within five years
The first half of the sentence is about real estate.
Will the property be eliminated in the five-year cycle, and whether there will still be enough customers to take over?
The second half of the sentence says yesIndividuals
Do you have the confidence to maintain sufficient cash flow without selling your house during the five-year cycle?
The checks and balances of these two dimensions constitute the mutual stability and abundance of cash flow between the property and the family.
The development of the industry will always encounter the big luck, and the key is whether you have the chips to wait for the arrival of the big luck, and whether you have the strength to hold back.
This is not a slogan,Touch your chest and ask yourself if you have the strength
Put the eggs in one basket
It's someone who can scale the asset.
Just like there are always some top 100 companies that can cross their industries across countless tracks.
But whenever people ask me about me, I always tell myself:I didn'tThis ability
I hope my audience will feel the same way.
Most individuals don't have the ability to discern assets, so if you don't believe me, answer me a question: Can you see the value of a shop?
If you can't think about this question systematically, or even know how to answer it, then you need to seriously reflect on your ability to discern family assets.
Although housing is the simplest subject of value judgment in the industry.
However, urban differentiation, the difference in the ability to cash in land plots, and the change of demand for products determine the difference of real estate to show drastic differences.
It would be out of date for funds to be used for decentralized purchases.
But on the other hand, all individuals have a clear understanding of their own needs.
In other words, when the needs of owner-occupancy are not fully met, do not buy multiple properties lightly.
At the same time, learn tooDraw cardscapacity
When we need to live better, how to better replace the house in our hands with a better house is no less difficult to solve than the distributed procurement of assets.
So it would be better to learn this proposition first, and then consider our second and third sets in **.
Old money is better than new money
This standard has always been negotiated according to the times.
But in this day and age, there is no doubt that old money is better.
Old money goes through cycles, and new money is full of bubbles
The same is true for the location, for the most core component of a property, betting on the old lot will have more ability to go through the cycle.
At present, the expansion of many cities has also begun to stop, and urban renewal will become the next round of development mode.
Because of this, we see that the expansion of the new area has a value overdraft, and there is also a situation where it cannot be realized.
And what you see in the old city is what you get in exchange for assetsUnderpinningUrban renewal is the icing on the cake.
More importantly, customer selection has also entered the stage of risk aversion.
The increasing preference for older locations will allow assets to be noticed.
Attention to the future property market is scarceMany assets are not unsellable, but are not seen by the market at all
The relatively focused location can at least ensure that the goods are selected in the basket of attention.
This is crucial.
Don't be vacantDon't be vacantDon't be vacant
Yes, important things are said three times.
If the family has more than one set of assets,Be sure to allow the asset itself to generate cash flow
Otherwise, it's a debt.
And when it comes to real estate, it's important to keep it leased.
So the first is to keep the space in a habitable state at all times, and the second is to keep the space in a rented state at all times.
Unlike buying and selling real estate, it is possible to increase the monthly rent in exchange for an annual price jump.
However, the corresponding tenant must also be replaced on an annual basis, which will inevitably lead to a large number of vacant periods and rent-free periods.
This is also detrimental to the rental operation of a house.
So if you choose a long-term stable tenant, learn to compromise on rent.
Perpetual leaseIt is important for stock assets.
The house is a strange thing, the more you use it, the better, and the long period of vacancy will also bring about a loss in the value of the asset.
So when we can't take care of it, it's actually a better choice to hand over the space to a third-party organization like Ziru.