In an unfavorable environment, in order to protect our personal interests, both we and our opponents involuntarily choose to "self-harm" behavior, which is the prisoner's dilemma;I wanted to maximize my personal interests, but in the end, I suffered collectively.
A brief review of the "Prisoner's Dilemma", two prisoners A and B were interrogated in solitary confinement, and if they both betrayed each other and confessed to their crimes, they were both sentenced to 8 years in prison, but if one confessed and the other did not, the confessor was released directly, and the person who did not confess was sentenced to 10 years, and if both did not confess, they were both sentenced to 1 year. Obviously, not confessing is the best strategy for the two criminals, but in order to avoid the most adverse outcome, that is, being sentenced to 10 years, both criminals will choose to confess their crimes, and driven by interests, confession has become the only stable game result. 
The good is not long, the bad is stable", this is a typical prisoner's dilemma, in part of the market downward city sector, in order to achieve a sales breakthrough, multiple projects passively launched "self-loss" behavior, from the first war to the intermediary war, from the new house war to the second-hand war, however, under the premise of reasonable market pricing, the developer should be cautious to use the sensitive card, once falling into the prisoner's dilemma is likely to be followed by multiple dilemmas.
Housing companies are caught in a multi-prisoner dilemmaSince the beginning of this year, the transactions of new and second-hand houses have been weak, although there is a brief climax, but the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to November fell by 34% year-on-year9%, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies in a single month in November fell by 17 year-on-year9%, at the end of November, the number of second-hand housing listings in many cities was at a historical high and showed a growth trend, although developers are gearing up, but customers continue to wait and see due to hesitation, market uncertainty, sales strategy agitation, customer wait-and-see sentiment and other gradually lead to multiple difficulties. 
100 help plan
The first is the battle of new housesFrom the perspective of new houses, on the basis of ensuring profitability, the flow red plate is the first goal of the project, and in order to achieve the target, price reduction is the most direct and effective means, so multiple projects in the same sector form the first "prisoner's dilemma". Obviously, reasonable pricing between competing products is the optimal equilibrium, which can not only maintain a certain profit, but also avoid the lack of confidence of potential customers due to ** fluctuations, but in the limited market capacity, who takes the first step, who is likely to take the lead in seizing limited customer resources. In order to avoid the risk of customer loss, there will always be projects that take the lead in initiating unreasonable price reductions, and then each project in the sector can only passively accept the war, which is inevitable and the bad result always tends to be stable, which further exacerbates the wait-and-see sentiment of customers on the market, and the war has not brought a significant increase in traffic. The second is the intermediary point battlePerhaps in the face of the fear of market uncertainty, or in the face of the pressure of index assessment, in the context of the failure of the first war, the real estate companies have launched an intermediary war, and the substantial increase in the proportion and point of intermediaries has almost instantly caused the second "prisoner's dilemma". From the seller's point of view, since the price reduction will cause panic among customers, can it increase traffic by increasing the number of visits and incentivizing intermediaries?As a result, the dependence of intermediaries has been greatly increased, and the intermediary point has jumped from 1% to 4% or even higher, although the transaction flow has achieved a small increase, but the buyer has not been preferential, the seller has spent a higher cost, and the most unfavorable equilibrium has been generated, and the buyer and seller have to accept and continue the intermediary war, after all, most customers are in the hands of the intermediary, and they do not even visit the intermediary if they do not play. Article 25 heavy, intermediary rebate war** is the basic mechanism of the market, traffic is the test standard of the market, this is the iron law, the intermediary war is ultimately just an extension of the ** war, in order to achieve traffic, the intermediary in some areas caused the 25. In order to promote the transaction of customers, the intermediary will return part of the points to the customer in cash, and it is understandable to pay out of pocket to facilitate the transaction. However, the concession based on the high point will lead to a deeper dilemma, for customers, the bottom line is further blurred, and for developers, the limited cost on the basis of profitability will inevitably be farther away from the product itself. The third is the battle of replacing the old with the newJumping out of the new housing dilemma caused by the first war, the unsalable second-hand housing has also imprisoned the third dimension of the "prisoner's dilemma" for new housing transactions, and a large number of replacement needs have not been released, which has further aggravated the wait-and-see sentiment of the market and the unsalable new houses. If customer A intends to replace a new house, customer B is the first time to buy a house, customer A is the buyer, and the seller, on the one hand, the new house stimulates the desire to buy, and the self-owned house is also constrained by excessive bargaining, customer B is the buyer, for customer B, the second-hand house needs to have a certain advantage over the new house, so that it can buy the second-hand house, and the actual market situation is that there has been no significant increase in housing prices in recent years, and the second-hand house has not produced a significant advantage over the new house, resulting in A and B Customers all want to buy new houses, second-hand houses continue to backlog, and the demand for new houses cannot be released, falling into the third stable dilemma of new houses and second-hand houses restricting each other and declining traffic. 02Ideas for solving the current dilemmaTaking the prisoner's dilemma caused by the ** war as an example, as one of the projects, in the context of the stagnation of sales in the market, the project can choose three strategies, and the opponent agreed not to reduce the price, we take the initiative to take the lead in reducing the price, and the other party will not reduce the price, and finally form the dilemma of unreasonable price reduction of each project, mainly in four conditions:
First, the market is down, sales are stagnant second, each project does not know the opponent's strategy third, we take the initiative to take the lead in reducing prices, which can better attract traffic Fourth, the other party will reduce the price We do not reduce the price, and will lose a large number of customers combined with the four conditions generated by the prisoner's dilemma, there are four ways to break the situation: first, create In a healthy market environment second, the project information is symmetrical, the strategy is jointly formulated third, compared with our initiative to take the lead in reducing prices, win-win cooperation is higher for me Fourth, compared to our initiative to take the lead in reducing prices, the other party does not reduce the price of our lower losses for me Induction, real estate companies to break the situation A total of three ways to choose from, either to improve the market environment, or multi-party win-win cooperation, or to choose the best way to break through the war;Of course, real estate companies should try their best not to fall into the prisoner's dilemma, and once they accidentally fall in, they should decisively jump out to avoid losing ground. Clause.
First, the first thing to do is not to enter the predicament from the developer, once you fall into the prisoner's dilemma of the first war, it is basically impossible to completely get rid of the whole body, and the only thing you can do is to ensure that you do not fall into the predicament, therefore, the developer should recognize the reality and face up to itself: anchor the investment strategy, realize the deep cultivation of the city, and stifle the soil that breeds the dilemma If there are multiple developers in a city area plate, and any developer has no deep cultivation advantage, once the market deteriorates, it is easy to produce ** The strategy of deep cultivation can avoid vicious competition to a great extent. Invest one into one, and realize the safe landing of investment projects as the foundation
With the in-depth interpretation of the urban area sector as a tool, combined with the results of customer research, the feasibility of the project's own location, positioning and product is fully demonstrated, and the internal management ability is improved. In 2023, although the overall market is uneven, ups and downs, there are still some high-quality projects that have achieved phenomenal hot sales, such as a benchmark real estate company in Shanghai's three-plate linkage, and the first three-plate sales were sold out at the same time in December, siphoning the purchasing power of the whole Shanghai, with a total subscription of more than 2,000 groups and a total sales of 8.2 billion. Second, once in the pit, avoid sinking into the mudChanges in the market and changes in policies always have their uncertainties, once the projects in the sector as a whole fall into a homogeneous and unsalable state, the location and product attributes of the project itself have become a foregone conclusion. "There is no house that cannot be sold, only the first that cannot be sold" for the geographical closed sector, such as the market oversupply and has fallen into vicious competition, rather than gradually fighting the first war, intermediary war, intermediary rebate war, it is better to decisively adjust the strategy, through the profit to achieve contrarian hot sales. Of course, there are many innovative breakthrough methods to learn from: such as enriching product experience, creating a real-life demonstration area, allowing customers to have intuitive imagination and understanding of future products through substitutional experience, winning customers' real recognition of products, and allowing customers to buy because of their love. For example, enrich the service experience, carry out marketing activities based on life scenes, and ignite sales hotspots through cultural seasons, wedding seasons, and food seasons. For example, enriching brand value, inviting customers to visit delivered projects, focusing on maintaining existing customer satisfaction, deepening brand logos, etc., are certainly sensitive, and it is more important for customers to buy their favorite homes with confidence. Clause.
Third, guide the correct values, adhere to the productism developer is not a living Bodhisattva, a certain profit margin is the survival of real estate enterprises, the loss caused by the war will inevitably cause the cost of the fall, as the real estate into the era of small profits, the prisoner's dilemma caused by the war will inevitably lead to the decline of product quality, although the customer itself pursues the maximization of interests, but will not be at the expense of the product, the buyer and the seller are also the community of interests. Therefore, it is easy to fight the first war, but refusing to fight the first war and doing differentiated upgrading of the product side is what developers should adhere to, the difficult and correct road, and behind this road is the reshaping of values, which is similar to the forging of "loyalty culture" in Hong Kong movies. At the same time, we should also create a transparent market environment as much as possible, the product is more transparent, the cost is more transparent, and the price is more transparent. As a benchmark real estate company put forward, the industry has entered the era of quality, continue to practice the value of "customer-centric productism", continue to forge core competitiveness, use works to give back love, and grow together with the city, which is the only way to break the prisoner's dilemma in the real sense, achieve a win-win situation for the market, developers and customers, and achieve a stable balance based on value orientation. 
Summary
The good ones don't last long, but the bad ones are stable", which is the most likely scenario in a multi-party game. When the real estate situation is good, the group of heroes is divided and each shows its strengths, but it has triggered the dilemma of savage growth and scale bubblesWith the decline of the real estate situation, thunderstorms are frequent, and each saves his life, but it has ignited the prelude to the ** war and the intermediary war. A good game equilibrium is difficult to last for a long time, only value guidance, cultivation of internal strength, productism, and win-win cooperation can break the dilemma and lead each other.