While China's economic operation has ushered in a good start, the RMB exchange rate has also continued its steady trend since the second half of 2023.
In January 2024, against the backdrop of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations cooling, the U.S. dollar index closing up, and the performance of domestic economic data turning from worrying to improving, the RMB exchange rate first depreciated slightly and then stopped falling and stabilized, and the correlation with the U.S. dollar index has strengthened.
In January this year, the deviation of the RMB exchange rate ** from the central parity widened slightly compared with the previous month. The data shows that at the beginning of January, the deviation from the middle price jumped to 550 basis points from 93 basis points at the end of last year and gradually widened to a monthly high of 863 basis points; On January 23, the deviation from the mid-price to the mid-price fell sharply to 578 basis points, but since then, the degree of deviation has continued to gradually expand, rising to 756 basis points at the end of January; The average daily deviation for the month widened by 272 basis points month-on-month. At the same time, the offshore renminbi (CNH) generally maintained the direction of CNY depreciation, with an average daily exchange rate difference of -104 basis points, an increase of 28 basis points month-on-month.
Let's take a look at the technical analysis.
Let's take a look at the 30-minute USDCNH chart in the past two days. It is not difficult to see from the information line drawn in the Bollinger band above that the dollar is an upward trend for the RMB, there is no particularly large amplitude, the Bollinger band has more trend information than the MACD, Xiao Wang's words here are not very recommended to do USDCNH, according to this trend continues to rise is not wrong, but you can't make a few meters to do it, but I am afraid that the Federal Reserve will make some moves during this time to make a big dive, we can't bear it. Friends who want to enter the market in the short term can refer to the fast and slow line MACD chart below, after yesterday's decline, today formed a more obvious death fork 1, after a short decline and ushered in the golden cross, but the golden cross fast line seems to have not run long and is about to meet with the slow line, look at this trend is a bit want to become a dead fork 2 meaning, although we are in the area of the death fork 2 has not yet formed, but the above corresponding Bollinger chart in the ** more biased towards the middle track, do not rule out that it is short-lived** and then continue to usher in a wave**.
Let's take a look at the 4-hour chart of the past three months, at this time, the Bollinger trend is still an overall upward direction, and the Bollinger Bands also have a tendency to open in the circle, ** It seems that there are signs of touching the upper band. If there is no impact of the news, the long-term bullish winning side is undoubtedly the largest. The position of the circle on the side of the MACD fast and slow line has not formed a dead cross in the end, and there will be small fluctuations in the near future just by looking at the fluctuations of the fast and slow lines. In the long run, Xiao Wang's advice is to wait and see, wait for the first death fork to form, find a suitable point to see if there is a trend of the formation of a golden fork, and consider whether to enter the market to rise.
The above content is a personal opinion and is not used as a basis for investors. If you agree with my point of view. Welcome to follow, like, **If you disagree with my point of view, welcome to follow and discuss.
Finally, I hope that you can make wise investment decisions based on your investment goals and risk tolerance.