In 2024, A-shares will start the year unfavorably, and the money-making effect will be very poor.
As of January 30, the Wind All A Index rose -104%；Among them, the CSI 300, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices rose by -54%、-11.3% and -153%。Small and mid-cap caps fell even more.
At the industry level, there is a lot of differentiation, and there are two heavens.
Banks and coal rose far ahead, with an increase of about 6 points, petroleum and petrochemical closed up slightly, and public utilities, building decoration, household appliances, transportation, etc. fell slightly; Electronics and computers fell the most, both by more than 19 percentage points, and the national defense and military industry, medicine and biology, machinery and equipment, and power equipment all fell by more than 15 points.
The industry that contradicts the trend is highly overlapping with the special valuation sector. From 1 to 30 days, the Wind China Special Valuation Index rose by 21%, achieving significant excess returns.
There are at least three reasons behind the special valuation: first, the key to rescue funds is CSI 300 and big finance, which has a high degree of overlap with the special valuation; Second, the market has a low risk appetite and prefers coal (dividend yield 7.).2%), banks (dividend yield 5.).5%), petroleum and petrochemical (dividend yield 4.3%); Third, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) considered including market value management in the assessment of central enterprises, which triggered speculation and enthusiasm in the central state-owned enterprise sector.
As of January 29, there were 1,408 listed companies of central state-owned enterprises in the A-share market, accounting for 263%；The total market capitalization is 452 trillion yuan, accounting for 544%, more than half of the country.
From the perspective of industry distribution, central state-owned enterprises are mainly concentrated in banking, non-bank finance, food and beverage, petroleum and petrochemical, communications, public utilities, transportation, coal, building decoration, military industry and other sectors. Among them, banks are the largest sector, accounting for 198%, and non-bank finance accounted for 85%, a total of nearly one-third, so when state-owned assets begin to pull the central state-owned enterprises, the big financial sector will always perform.
While the special valuation sector is bucking the trend, the vast majority of the plates are in the **, and many plates are falling sharply.
The direct reason is the lack of bailout funds, and in essence, these ** sectors reflect the real problem of A-shares: liquidity depletion.
On the one hand, under the effect of losing money for several consecutive years, investors' willingness to continue to allocate A-shares in 2024 has dropped significantly, and the strength is insufficient; On the other hand, the Spring Festival is the peak season for cash demand, and the superimposed 2023Q1 Tianliang credit supply will expire one after another (2023Q1, China's new RMB loans will be 10.7 trillion yuan, a record high), many investors had to sell assets cheaply to raise funds. At the beginning of the month, the non-controlling shareholders of many listed companies issued ** announcements to sell at the floor price, which should be the main reason for alleviating liquidity pressure.
Selling pressure is concentrated, and the strength is insufficient, resulting in a rapid index. The index ** has triggered a panic of leveraged funds, and under the pressure of liquidation, a large number of leveraged funds have been sold in a life-saving manner, resulting in a negative feedback loop.
In the face of this negative feedback pressure, the bailout funds supported the bottom and injected liquidity into the market, which alleviated the selling pressure to a certain extent.
However, the bailout funds are mainly state-owned enterprises, concentrated in banks, non-banking, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, liquor and other sectors, and other technology and growth sectors, lack of liquidity support, and are still in a negative feedback state.
You save yours, I fall mine. The bailout funds did not effectively alleviate the pressure on market liquidity. With the support of the China Special Valuation Sector, the Shanghai Composite Index once returned to around 2,900 points, while the ChiNext Index, which is concentrated in new energy, biomedicine, electronics and other sectors, is constantly hitting new lows.
As far as the majority of investors are concerned, there is also a clear sense of separation between the Shanghai Composite Index and the profit and loss experience of holding positions: the Shanghai Composite Index is around 2,800 points, and many investors have a holding experience around 2,600 points or even 2,500 points.
Looking ahead to February, liquidity is still the main contradiction in A-shares. Whether the liquidity pressure can be alleviated will largely determine the direction of the **.
If you take a longer view, you can see the optimism.
On February 5, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0The 5 percentage point officially came into effect, which will release trillions of low-cost funds to the banking system. These funds will not flow directly into the real economy**, but only in the form of debt. With credit fund support, the real sector does not have to sell assets to repay debts at a low price, which will help to improve liquidity pressures.
After the Spring Festival, the seasonal liquidity pressure will return to normal, and part of the funds outflowed before the holiday will flow back to **, which will also help to improve the liquidity pressure.
At the same time, under the low base effect last year, the economic data in January is expected to exceed expectations, which can enhance market risk appetite to a certain extent. Northbound funds, which have been staring at fundamentals, are expected to increase net inflows.
All of the above points to the possibility of improved liquidity in A-shares in February. Combined with these factors, A-shares in February are likely to be better than in January.
However, in the first few trading days of the Spring Festival, it is the time when liquidity pressure is at its greatest.
At present, the growth sector will continue to be under negative feedback pressure; Investors' confidence has repeatedly fallen under the effect of losing money. Although the bailout funds can stabilize the Shanghai Composite Index, it cannot stabilize investor confidence. The market is still fragile, and if this vulnerability continues, the early rescue efforts may fall short.
Next, unless the rescue funds are strengthened, and the structure is adjusted, and more first-class technology and growth sectors are added, the negative feedback will continue, and the trend will be difficult to reverse. The problem is that restructuring is not very likely. There are too many lock-up plates in the technology sector, too much selling pressure, and the state-owned assets support the bottom of the work, and the effect is limited.
On the whole, with the Spring Festival as the cut-off point, there is a high probability that A-shares will go out of the V-shaped trend in February: before the holiday, the rescue funds will be stable in the special valuation, and the sectors other than the special valuation will continue to fall; After the holiday, the return of funds and the overfall are expected to usher in a wave of sharp short-term.
Note: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. In any case, the information or opinions expressed herein are for an exchange of views only and do not constitute investment advice to any person. 】
This article was originally written by *** Xue Hongyan Whispering, the author is Xue Hongyan, vice president of Xingtu Financial Research Institute