Vision Pro is sold out on sale and priced at 100,000 yuan, has it become a lifesaver for Apple?
At 8 a.m. EST on January 19, the high-profile new Apple phone Vision Pro opened pre-orders on time, and the prices of the three versions of 256GB, 512GB and 1TB were 3499 (about RMB 2.)50,000 yuan (about RMB 2.)60,000 yuan) and 3899 (about 280,000 yuan).
It is worth mentioning that within 5 minutes of the VISION Pro going on sale, the server was full, many orders could not be processed, and it showed that all of them were sold out after only half an hour of the sale. Due to the large number of orders, the delivery time of the Vision Pro has been greatly delayed, and Apple's official ** shows that the shipping date has been postponed to March, and some orders have even been scheduled for April.
Vision Pro is considered Apple's second growth curve, Apple CEO Tim Cook has said"Vision Pro will usher in the era of spatial computing"。Eight years have passed since the project began, making Vision Pro Apple's successor to the iPhone, iPad, iMac and iWatch"Fifth screen"。
Because the pre-sale of Vision Pro was so hot that it even triggered an auction. The so-called auction activity is actually to help consumers rush to buy, and after the consumer buys successfully, it involves paying the corresponding auction fees. Some auctioneers said that the ** of Vision Pro in the United States has been hyped to 1About 10,000 yuan, the domestic ** was fried to between 80,000 and 100,000 yuan.
On e-commerce platforms such as Jingdong and Xianyu, there are also a large number of merchant buyers, and the purchase of Vision Pro has been rising, reaching 90,000 yuan. In"Looting"Under it, Vision Pro consumer electronics seems to have become one"Financial instruments", it can be successfully snapped up at this time, and the income of nearly five times is really impressive.
The success of the Vision Pro is a shot in the arm for Apple, which has suffered a series of setbacks in its stock price and lower-than-expected iPhone sales, but whether the Vision Pro will ultimately turn the tide and help Apple usher in a new era of consumer electronics remains an open question.
First, the reset** is speculated to be 100 000
Equipped with an M2 chip, the Vision Pro offers a Vision OS-based 3D user interface and input system that is fully controlled by the user's eyes, hands, and voice. It also comes with an eye-tracking system that incorporates the Eyesight feature, and when from a close range**, parts of the device's screen appear transparent on the outside, meaning that real-world interactions can be made through the headset.
Since Vision Pro is currently only available in the U.S. market, many domestic users who want to try it for the first time can only buy it through friends and family in the U.S. or third-party platforms.
Especially on third-party platforms, some merchants require customers to pay in full; Some need to pay a deposit first, and then pay the balance after receiving the goods; There are also merchants who propose to pay a deposit in advance, and wait for the arrival of the product in mid-February, and then according to the market ** pricing, refund more and make up for less. But in either case, it will be tens of thousands of yuan higher than the official. Through various purchase channels, the arrival of the Vision Pro** is generally in 250,000 yuan to 7Between 50,000 yuan, the most advanced even reached nearly 100,000 yuan.
*:Internet.
Not only domestic, but also on the overseas e-commerce platform eBay, there has also been a ** transfer, and the first batch of users to hang out the resale link, taking the 512GB version as an example, there are users on the eBay platform who resell the price as high as 6000, which is 62% higher than the original official price of 3699.
In addition, on the commonly used third-party channels, JD International has also launched an appointment link for Vision Pro, the page shows that the successful appointment will start at 23 o'clock on February 2, and its logistics chain shows that from the United States to JD's national warehouse, and then to the user's city, the product is provided by JD International for distribution and after-sales service.
In fact, Vision Pro promises to be one of a kind"Financial instruments"。Previously, Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that the initial inventory of Apple's Vision Pro headphones is about 60,000 to 80,000 units, and because the inventory is not very high, there will be over-the-counter transactions in the first few days of listing.
However, it now seems that the financial attributes of the Vision Pro are weakening, and Kuo pointed out in the latest report that according to the inventory level and shipment plan before the pre-order, Apple is expected to sell 160,000 to 180,000 Vision Pro units in the first weekend after the start of the Vision Pro pre-order, and it will not be too difficult to ship 500,000 units this year. However, after the pre-sale was sold out, demand dropped rapidly. Kuo also said that the first signs could mean that the demand for the Vision Pro is decreasing. The extended shipping time hasn't changed within 48 hours of the presale opening, raising concerns that demand could drop quickly after major fans and big users place orders.
Secondly, Vision Pro is not a savior.
At this stage, Apple's main revenue-generating business is still the iPhone, which accounts for more than 50% of total revenue, but it should not be forgotten that the iPhone is experiencing a huge crisis in the Chinese smartphone market.
According to IDC data, in the first quarter of 2023, global iPhone shipments reached 55.2 million units, with a market share of 205%, down 23%；In the second quarter, global iPhone shipments reached 42.5 million units, with a market share of 16%, down 6% year-on-year3%；In the third quarter, global iPhone shipments reached 53.6 million units, with a market share of 177%, a year-on-year increase of 25%。It can be seen that the global sales of iPhones are on a downward trend.
In 2023, global smartphone shipments will be 1166.9 billion units, down 32%。Of these, Apple sold 234.6 billion units, with a market share of 201%, an increase of 37%, ranking first in the world.
Apple came from behind, but it also paid a terrible price. According to data from market research agency BCI, in November after the iPhone 15 was launched, Apple took the lead in the high-end mobile phone market above 4,000 yuan, occupying more than 50% of the market share, but the market share value fell by 21 percent year-on-year2%。In the 4 months since the launch of the iPhone 15 series, the iPhone series has seen significant price reductions across various platforms, and Apple's price reduction strategy has played a big role in coming out on top in 2023.
From January 18th to January 21st, Apple's official website in China will launch the Chinese New Year** campaign, where you can enjoy discounts ranging from 50 yuan to 800 yuan for selected products purchased with eligible payment methods, including the iPhone 15 series, which was launched just last year, with a price reduction of up to 500 yuan.
As Apple's main revenue-generating business, the repeated price cuts of the iPhone mean that Apple is also worried about sales, and profit growth is slow.
Despite the fact that the Vision Pro is selling well and is seen as Apple's second growth curve, it is not a lifesaver for Apple at this stage.
On the one hand, in order to allow users to continue to use and buy Vision Pro, it is necessary to establish a rich content ecology, including games, film and television, ** social networks and other aspects, and Vision Pro runs the VisionOS system, as mentioned earlier, VisionOS is mainly aimed at iOS developers, but they are not familiar with the space development environment. The current version of the VisionOS app is still at the level of 2D interaction and cannot reproduce the hardware capabilities of the Vision Pro. It's important to note that the content ecosystem must be built by partners across a wide range of industries, and this is not something that can be quickly solved in the short term.
On the other hand, Vision Pro's ** is also an important factor for most users to consider, compared with domestic AR glasses manufacturers, more than 20,000 yuan ** is not cost-effective.
In addition, there are market organizations**, Vision Pro sales should be around 300,000 to 400,000 units in the first year, even if this projected goal is successfully achieved, it will only bring Apple 1.4 billion in revenue, less than 1% of Apple's total revenue. It can be seen that at this stage, Vision Pro is still difficult to become Apple's lifeline.
Third, can we expect an Apple car?
With iPhone sales falling short of expectations, the Vision Pro is struggling to catch up. In the long run, the Apple Car is considered the ultimate for Apple**. However, as a pioneer in the cross-border smartphone field and entering the automotive field, Apple has not only failed to mass-produce since 2014, but even the automotive project team has collapsed several times and was even forced to disband.
Recently, it was reported that Apple's self-driving car program has begun adding new test drivers to the program, which has stalled since cutting the team in early 2023. Currently, the project has a total of 162 test drivers and 68 autonomous vehicles. Apple's car is expected to be launched in 2026 and will cost less than 100,000 yuan, with custom chips, and will not be fully self-driving when launched, according to a person familiar with the situation.
The life of the Apple car is not good. Back in 2014, Apple launched"Project Titan"The project is led by Steve Zadesky, the leader of the first-generation iPod team, and in order to achieve the goal, Apple created a car team of 1,000 people and continues to recruit people from car companies such as Google, Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, etc.
However,"Project Titan"It didn't go well, with the departure of the four heads of the Apple Car project, internal contradictions and management problems"Project Titan"There was a hiatus, and it wasn't until the end of 2020 that Apple announced the restart of the program.
Despite the turmoil, the automotive industry is a city that Apple must conquer. Citi analyst Jim Suva said in a research note that the automotive market offers huge long-term growth opportunities, and Apple's entry into the automotive industry could be a catalyst to increase Apple's total market capitalization from $2 billion to $3 billion.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, the automotive industry chain is longer and heavier than the smartphone industry chain, and the car manufacturing not only has to bear huge financial pressure, but also faces the risk of not being able to deliver. However, for Apple, the most important question at this stage is: when iPhone sales growth reaches its peak, will Vision Pro be able to appear in time to take the lead?