so-called".Crossing the bull and bearThat isOutstanding performance in both bull and bear markets**
Bull market, "talented", outstanding performance abounds, most of the well-known ** managers familiar to investors became famous in the 2019-2020 bull market;
In the bear market in 2018, the duration was short, and the ** manager with a low turnover rate ushered in the bull market again before he even had time to "change hands", and he felt that he had easily crossed the bear market; The three-year bear market from 2021 to 2023 has made the vast majority of ** managers "lose their way" and cannot find a model to outperform, let alone net worth growth.
1. In the bear market, the active underperformance is passive
In the first year of the bear market (2021), the active equity index can still outperform** and the passive equity base, but in the second year (2022) and the third year (2023) of the bear market, the active equity index will not outperform** and the passive equity base.
Second, the manager "big guy" can't survive the three-year bear market
In 2020, the management scale will exceed 100 billion yuanZhang KunLiu YanchunwithXie Zhiyu, in the three-year bear market, Zhang Kun and Liu Yanchun's net worth have significantly underperformed in 2023 for three consecutive years, and Xie Zhiyu underperformed in 2022; So far this year, they have still underperformed**;
I only love one ** in my life".Zhu ShaoxingIt has been 19 years of management of Fuguo Tianhui's growth, with remarkable performance and countless fans, and it will be in 2022**2390% underperform** and also underperform the biased stocks** index; Underperformed again this year**;
Contrarian investment and distress reversal strategies were once considered to be powerful tools for bear market investment; Lin YingruiIts outstanding performance in the two "bear" years of 2021 and 2022 has led to the nomination of the "Morning Star** Award" and the "Morningstar** Award" respectively, but its net worth in 2023 will be significantly **2176%, almost 2 times the ** decline; Another manager is known for his contrarian investmentsMo Haiboalso did not survive the three-year bear market, 2023**1771%, underperforming ** more than 6 points.
Transactional"Due to".Look at the face of the marketTheoretically, it has a natural anti-fall property. VeteranLv HuijianIn the past year, it has continuously underperformed the ** and partial stock ** index, and the Mesozoic ** managerZhou ZhishuoIn 2023 and this year, it will also underperform**, and this year's decline is larger; OnlyYang JinjinIt has performed well in the three-year bear market, outperforming the ** and equity** indices for all three years.
Third, the lack of continuity of performance, according to the historical performance of the selection of large deviation
Huatai**On May 8, 2022, a research report was released ".Earnings, performance patterns and research frameworks", right".**Continuity of performance"Specialized statistics and studies were carried out, and the results of the study showed that:
"It is difficult for equity ** to maintain good performance for a long time, and excellent performance in the previous year does not guarantee that it will continue to perform well in the future".
The vast majorityIt is difficult to maintain "excellent performance" for a long time
The maximum research sampling span of Huatai ** is 12 years, starting from the year of establishment of **, and the continuous operation period is until the end of 2021; **Performance".Excellent"The standard is the top 1 4 of the same kind of ranking of the year.
As shown in the table below, **,, founded in 2010None of the ** can be in ityears of operation to obtainyears before performanceresults；Founded in 2011, **alsoOnlyThe proportion can be in ityears of operation to obtainyears before performanceresults
Founded in 2017**In the five years of its operation, only 1 of the five years of its operation were "excellent".28%, whileThe ** that has been awarded "excellent" for 5 consecutive years is 0
From the rightmost column we can seeIt has been established for 5 years or more, and can be continuous(Except for 1 year allowed for 10-12 years of establishment).There is no such thing as a "meritorious" one
There is no significant difference in earnings performance between the top and bottom performers in the following years
willTop performanceDefined as the growth rate of the net value of the weighted unit during the year at the top 1 4 level of the same categoryPerformance lags behindIt is defined as the growth rate of the net value of the weighted unit in the year that is in the bottom 1 4 of the same category.
From 2010 to the present, the income performance of the top and bottom performance of the previous years is counted, and the average of the income quantiles of the top 1 4 and the last 1 4 of the above years are remitted. For example, for the top 1 4 returns in 2010, first obtain their annual returns from 2011 to 2021, and then obtain the return quantile (The higher the return, the quantile of return
The larger the number), and then calculate the mean of the quantile of earnings in 2010 for the top performer** in other years.
The statistical results show that:In most years, the mean quantile of earnings is around 50%., where the average value of the income quantile corresponding to the top 1 4 ** is 4984%, and the average quantile of earnings corresponding to ** after 1 4 is 4887%。From this it can be arguedIn the following years, the average performance of the top 1 4 in a certain year can only be at a medium level, and in the following years, the average performance of the bottom 1 4 ** can also be at a medium level in the following years
The content of this section is all from the research report of Huatai **Earnings, performance patterns and research frameworks
Fourth, the rights and interests of crossing bulls and bears**, there are only 2 in the whole market
2017-2021 for 5 consecutive years, from the large level "Bull and bear cycles"Look, the bear market in 2018, the bull market in 2019-2020; In terms of years, 2017 is a small bull market, and 2021 is the beginning of a bear market;
As shown in the table above, in 2017-2021 for 5 consecutive years,There is no ** that can "cross the bull and bear" for 5 consecutive years and have "excellent performance" (the top 1 4 of the same kind of performance in the year).
It has been two years since the research of Huatai **, and the new round of bull and bear cycle 2019-2023 is also exactly 5 years.
1. Do the rights and interests of crossing the bull and bear (2019-2023) really exist?
I directly use the method of screening ** on the wind platform to find out the eligible individual bases:
(1) Select the ** type:All**Type**, Partial Stock Balanced Flexible Configuration) Mixed Type**, Filter Results:6231 pcs
(2) Annual rankingsannual average selection".Top 25% of its kind", filter results:2 pcs
2. The whole market onlyThe new trend of Chinese businessmen gives priority to flexible allocationwithHuaan Anxin consumer service mix"These 2 ** have all the annual performance for 5 consecutive years (2 years of cattle and 3 years of bears).Top 25% of its kindReally crossed the bull and bear
(1) "Excellent" performance for 5 consecutive years
As shown in the table belowThe new trend of Chinese businessmen gives priority to flexible allocation**The performance in these 5 years is better than the "top 25%", and the actual ranking is "".Top 15% in its category”；And the return has been positive for five or five consecutive years, especially in a three-year bear market.
As shown in the table belowHuaan Anxin consumer service mix**Performed better than the "top 25%" in these 5 years, with negative returns in both 2022 and 2023, ranking 2129% and 1813%。
(2) Performance in 2024 will be mixed
Even if it is so good, we cannot guarantee that the performance of the 2** will continue to be maintained in the future".ExcellentTop 25% of its kind
The new trend of Chinese businessmen gives priority to flexible allocationThis yearThe performance of the coming is indeedGeneral, net worth**299%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index, ranking 1202nd among 2299 similar companies, ranked 5393%, already in the bottom 50%.
Huaan Anxin consumer service mixThis yearto the performance of the thenKeep up the excellence, net worth**519%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, ranking 211th among 4016 similar companiesRanked 525%, among the best!
Fifth, the common characteristics of the first to cross the bull and bear
1. Two ** have never changed their managers during the 5-year "bull and bear cycle".
According to statistics, the average management period of the manager of the public offering is only 1 year and 251 days; Different managers have different management capabilities and different investment styles, and the frequent replacement of managers is one of the main reasons why the performance is unsustainable.
The new trend of Chinese businessmen gives priority to flexible allocationwithHuaan Anxin consumer service mixOne of the reasons for the long duration of the "high-performing" performance is that there has been no change of ** manager during these five years.
* ManagerZhou Haidongfrom 14 May 2015".The new trend of Chinese businessmen gives priority to flexible allocationSo far (February 27), it has been 8 years and 291 days, and the return is 28674%, with an annualized return of 1661%, ranking first out of 428 in its kind!
* ManagerWang Bin, effective October 31, 2018".Huaan Anxin consumer service mixSo far (February 27), it has been 5 years and 120 days, and the return is 27761%, with an annualized return of 2830%, ranking second out of 583 in its class!
2. The investment style of the two ** managers is "**value".
According to the statistics of the Tiantian ** platform, the new trend of China Commercial has given priority to the "top value" investment style in the past two years and 8 quarters;
In the past two years, 7 of the 8 quarters of Huaan Anxin Consumer Service have been in the "** value" investment style and 1 quarter in the "** balance" investment style.
3. The position industry is diversified and the shareholding concentration is moderate
The industries held by the two ** are extremely diversified; Among the 31 industries at the Shenwan level,China Commercial New Trend preferentially holds 29 and Huaan Anxin Consumer Services holds 26
However, the top three heavy industries of the two ** are completely different, but the concentration of the top three industries is similar; The new trend of Chinese businessmen is preferredThe top three industries are distributed in non-ferrous metals2229%, computer 1500% and pharmaceutical bio 804%，The top three industries accounted for 4533%Huaan Anxin consumer servicesThe top three industries are distributed among utilities 1757%, food and beverage 1350% and non-bank financial 1110%，The top three industries accounted for 4217%
4. The number of shares held is large, the turnover rate is moderate to low, and the take-profit and stop-loss are taken through moderate trading
The number of shares held by the two ** is larger; According to the five-year average, the average shareholding of China Commercial New Trend is 143, and the average shareholding of Huaan Anxin Consumer Service is 153;
The turnover rate of the two ** is moderately low, and both of them take profit and stop loss through moderate trading; The average turnover rate of China Commercial New Trend Priority was 158, and the average turnover rate of Huaan Anxin Consumer Services was 212; The time when the turnover rate of the two ** is higher is at the stage high of the bull market and the late stage of the bull market (the beginning of the bear market), which is a typical means of taking profit.
5. Better control of drawdown
The largest drawdown in five years, the new trend of Chinese businessmen is prioritized at -2956%, Huaan Anxin Consumer Services -2644%, and the average value of partial stock hybrid** was as high as 4757%；
Five-year dynamic drawdown, new trend of Chinese businessmen priority -1884%, Huaan Anxin Consumer Services -1970%, compared to 4164%；
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