**From @VisualChina.
In the previous review and combing of the situation of the new energy industry in 2023, the company mentioned that with the intensification of the price reduction tide in the fourth quarter, the contradiction between supply and demand has further intensified, and there may not be a few photovoltaic and wind power companies with further pressure on their performance (under the crisis of overcapacity, wind power and photovoltaic in 2023 are not so "beautiful"). In January this year, many photovoltaic and wind power listed companies announced their performance forecasts, and the performance of some leading enterprises in the fourth quarter "exploded", which attracted widespread attention. In the fourth quarter of last year, among the four main links of the PV industry chain (polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules), the downstream fell even more, and the upstream polysilicon, which led the decline at the beginning of the year, showed some signs of stabilization compared with other segments. Among the four major polysilicon companies (Tongwei Co., Ltd., GCL Technology, Xinte Energy, and Daqo Energy).Daqo Energy (688303.)sh）The 2023 earnings forecast has been announced, and the company's resultsIt is highly dependent on polysilicon sales, soSince the first quarter of last year, the company has suffered a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit due to the sharp decline in polysilicon**；From the perspective of the first three quarters, Daqo Energy's revenue decreased by 47 percent year-on-year81%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6609%；Judging from the annual performance forecast,The company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 5.7 billion yuan to 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6967% to 7019%, deducting non-net profit of 57200 million to 58200 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6961% to 7013%；From the perspective of single-quarter net profit in the fourth quarter, the quarter-on-quarter decline is expected to be 06% to 151% between。As for the reasons for the change in performance, Daqo Energy also explained very clearly, in 2022, the upstream and downstream PV production capacity will be mismatched, and polysilicon ** will always be at a high level, but at the same time, the production capacity will continue to rise; In 2023, the cyclical inventory consumption in the industry will be affected by the superposition of new production capacityThe domestic polysilicon supply has increased significantly, which has led to a rapid decline in polysilicon, although the company continues to increase sales, but it still leads to a sharp decline in performance year-on-year。In mid-December last year, Daqo Energy officially announced that it would invest in the construction of the "Daqo Energy Silicon-based New Material Industrial Park Project" in Shihezi City, Xinjiang, to increase the proportion of industrial silicon business, so as to optimize the company's main business structure, realize the diversification of product structure, enhance comprehensive competitive advantage and profitability, hedge the risk of price reduction, and create stronger financial statements (under the crisis of the photovoltaic industry, who is expanding production against the trend?). ）。If Daqo Energy's net profit decline in the fourth quarter is still expected, thenThe performance of silicon wafer companies "exploded".It still makes many practitioners sigh "I didn't think of it". On the evening of January 26, one of the silicon wafer duopolyTCL Central (002129.)sz）(Another major oligarch is LONGi Green Energy) disclosed its performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit in 2023 will be 4.2 billion yuan to 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 296% to 384%；According to this calculation, the companyThere was a loss in the fourth quarter, and the loss range was about 1.3 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan。TCL explained in the announcementQ4Photovoltaic industry chainThe main products are **fast** to the irrational range, and the profitability of the company's main business is under pressure. In addition, the rapid decline of the product and the one-time book loss caused by the disposal of the equity of the participating company had a large negative impact on the fourth quarter performance。In addition, Jingyuntong (601908., which also has more layout in the silicon wafer sectorSH) also turned from a profit to a loss in the fourth quarter of last year, with a loss of more than 100 million yuan in a single quarter. The company also mentioned in the announcement that silicon wafer products** are under pressure and fluctuate greatly, which has a negative impact on the company's overall profitability.
Battery and module companiesOne of the leading companies in the BC route, Aiko shares (600732SH) performance also suffered a heavy blow, with a loss of about 1.1 billion yuan in the fourth quarter and a decline of 66% in net profit for the whole year71%-68.43%。Regarding the performance changes, Aiko said that in 2023, the company's technology will continue to progress and the sales volume will increase steadily, but the new capacity investment and operation will bring an increase in management expenses, and the sales expenses will also increase significantlyIn the fourth quarter, the industry competition was particularly fierce, photovoltaic products were fast, and the company's main business battery and module products were provided for the impairment of fixed assets and inventory decline, which had a significant impact on the fourth quarter results. LONGi Green Energy, another leader in the BC route, did not meet the scope of performance that needs to be disclosed, and did not release a performance forecast.
Previously, JinkoSolar (688223SH).Enterprises that take the TOPCON technology route, in the iteration of n-type instead of p-type, the performance in the first three quarters was generally good, butIn the fourth quarter, its profitability was still under a lot of pressure。toJinkoSolarFor example, the company's earnings forecast shows that itsNet profit for the full year 2023 is expected to be 72500 million yuan to 79500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14692% to 17076%The announcement also said that in 2023, the company will achieve a rapid increase in N-type module shipments, driving a significant increase in operating performance compared with the same period last year. Indeed, the capacity release of N-type TOPCon not only supported Jinko's performance, but also allowed its module shipments to surpass LONGi Green Energy and return to the top spot in the industry (the top 10 PV module shipments in 2023 will be released, and Jinko will surpass LONGi to return to the top spot). But if that's ifLooking at the fourth quarter alone, Jinko's net profit was 89.6 billion yuan-159.6 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of between 36% and 65%.。Another leader that takes the topcon route is Trina Solar (688599SH) net profit also fell by more than 50% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter. According to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), by the end of the year, the winning bid price of modules was lower than 1 yuan, and the bidding price of N-type modules was generally lower than the cost line. As the most tragic link in the direct contact with the application side, the pressure on module manufacturers can be imagined. In the case of poor performance, many companies with higher stock prices at the beginning of 2024, once again suffered a sharp drop in stock prices, TCL Zhonghuan's stock price gapped, opened lower and fell to the limit**, and has continued since then**, as of February 2**, 1153 yuan, compared with the opening price at the beginning of the year has fallen 263%；TCL Zhonghuan's performance also caused anxiety about the sector as a whole, and then superimposed ** performance factors, on January 29, the photovoltaic sector as a whole plummeted, in addition to TCL Zhonghuan, Jinko (also announced the results before this trading day), LONGi, JA Solar and other leaders have played a leading role, Aiko shares also fell on the same day, and after the company's results, its stock price fell further, and then entered a sharp ** trend. This big dive has hit many photovoltaic stocks hard, and there has been no improvement so far.
However, in the photovoltaic concept stocks, the equipment manufacturers of downstream power stations have performed well in the case of continuous high installed capacity and reduced cost pressure, among which the typical representative is the inverter leader Sungrow Power Supply (300274SZ), the company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.3 billion yuan to 10.3 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 159% to 187%, and the performance support in the fourth quarter is also relatively strong, and the stock price also rose nearly 5% the next day after the performance forecast.
Wind power companies also suffered a stock price crash due to the announcement of leading results.
On the evening of January 30, one of the five major listed wind power manufacturersMingyang Intelligence（601615.sh）According to the announcement, the company expectsIn 2023, it will achieve a net profit of 35.4 billion to 5300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8466% to 8975%；The net profit after deduction is 15.4 billion to 2300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9261% to 9505%。At the time of the announcement of the third quarterly report, the company's net profit in the first three quarters was still 122.8 billion yuan, according to which it is calculatedQ4At leastlossNear700 million yuan。Mingyang Intelligent announced that it was affected by the industry cycleThe wind power industry has entered a stage of fierce competition, and the overall number of wind turbine bids has declined, especially the bid price of onshore wind power has dropped significantly。The wind turbines delivered by the company in this period have generally declined due to the impact of industry fluctuations, resulting in a year-on-year decline in the gross profit margin of the company's fan sales. In addition, the company's offshore wind power orders to be delivered were delayed due to force majeure factors affecting the implementation progress of specific projects, resulting in a decrease in the sales volume of offshore wind turbines in the current period compared with the same period last year. The company originally planned to complete the power station product transaction in the fourth quarter, but the main transaction target was postponed due to objective reasons, resulting in the company's power station product profit being lower than expected
Also on January 30, another major listed machine manufacturerElectric Wind Power (688660.)sh）also released a performance forecast, saidIn 2023, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will show a loss, and the loss range is expected to be between 1.2 billion yuan and 13between 400 million yuanAlthough Electric Wind Power lost more than 600 million yuan in the first three quarters, the loss doubled in the fourth quarter, which is still somewhat unexpected. The company's announcement said that the main reason for the pre-loss was:Affected by the continued fierce competition in the domestic wind power market, market bidding** has been decliningThe company's average sales ** decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, and a certain amount of loss contract loss provision will be provided. At the same time, part of the company's regionalThe offshore sales order project was affected by the schedule and failed to achieve sales revenue as plannedAs a result, the company's operating income decreased during the reporting period, resulting in a corresponding decrease in operating profit. In addition, according to the company, although it has actively promoted the large-scale of products, adjusted the technical route, and reduced the cost of the chainHowever, the reduction in costs has not been able to keep up with the decline in sales
The day after the results announcement, Mingyang Intelligent opened with a drop limit, and electric wind power also fell by 92%, and continued to fall sharply on February 1 and 2, hitting a record low in stock prices. Other sector leaders that have not announced their results include Goldwind (002202).SZ), Yunda shares (300772SZ) also suffered a decline of more than 3%.
Although in the past two years, the poor performance of the stock prices of new energy companies represented by photovoltaic and wind power is not new, it is rare to encounter such a large performance and stock price double kill. However, judging from the beginning of 2024, at least photovoltaic silicon materials, silicon wafers, and batteries have stabilized or stabilized, and wind power industry insiders also believe that at least the price reduction will slow down significantly in 2024. (This article was first published.)onTitanium**app, AuthorHu Jiameng, editLiu Yangxue
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