Author: Jiang Tao (Academic Committee Member, Beijing Ward Research Institute).
The influence of China's relations with India, public sentiment and official stance is enormous.
Since China's victory in 1962 in a border counterattack against India, China's psychological superiority over India has been established. Especially after the reform and opening up, China's rapid development has further strengthened this psychological advantage. However, since the United States regarded China as its number one strategic competitor, the international situation facing China has become more and more severe. The United States and the West have used India as an important legal code to contain China's development and balance China's influence. In the past 10 years, India has been like a fish in water, and all forces have vied with each other to curry favor with India and unite with India, making it usher in the first period in history.
As India's economic growth rate has surpassed that of China in recent years, India has gradually shaken off the foundation of the national policy of non-alignment and gradually moved towards the vanguard of containing China, from the long-suppressed inferiority complex in the past to the current gradually expanding revenge mentality.
In particular, with the help of the United States and the West, India's military strength has been greatly enhanced. The humiliation of Yixue's defeat in 1962 has gradually strengthened in the Indian national psyche, making China's attempts to improve relations with India futile, and India's stance on the Sino-Indian border has become tougher, and even continues to flex its muscles to China.
For a long time, the mistrust between China and India, both official and non-governmental, has not been effectively resolved. India considers South Asia to be India's sphere of influence, and China's strengthened ties with Burma, Malta, Bhutan and other countries have challenged India's sphere of influence, and it is even more unhappy with China's navy's access to the Indian Ocean. China, on the other hand, is highly wary of India's entry into the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy, and views its entry into the South China Sea as interference in China's sovereignty.
ButFrom the analysis of the current situation, China-India relations are generally controllable, mainly based on the following aspects:
India regards the Sino-US confrontation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a period of strategic opportunity to accelerate its own development. In recent years, India has been in a good situation, and has eaten up the dividends of all parties, and its economic development has gained an excellent window period. After India hosted the G20 summit last year, India-US relations reached a small climax, and because of the issue of Sikh leaders, some frictions and suspicions arose with Canada and the United States, which led to India's return to a non-aligned and independent foreign policy. In this situation, India does not want to clash with China and disrupt the period of strategic opportunities for its economic development.
Therefore, it can be judged that unless China is in the middle of a war, India may stab in the back and wait for an opportunity to take advantage, or take the opportunity to provoke an India-Pakistan war and cut off China's Belt and Road Corridor, otherwise China-India relations will be relatively stable in 2024.
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