As long as the war is not over, everything is variable, just like ** has not completed the delivery, it cannot be regarded as "falling into the bag". According to a report by Reference News Network on February 19, Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian leader and deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, recently wrote an article envisioning Ukraine's victory in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Medvedev said that only Belarus would think that Russia would accept such an outcome, and if such a scenario arises, Russia will fight a full-scale nuclear war with the West, and Russian missile forces will attack Washington, Berlin or London, cities that "have long been the target of Russia's nuclear triad."
Judging from Medvedev's statement, it seems that Russia is on the verge of defeat and has to use nuclear war to "deter" the West and warn them not to "deceive people too much", but in fact, just before Medvedev put down these "cruel words", the Russian army had just achieved a "major victory" in the Donbas region. According to a CCTV News report on February 17, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Syrsky, announced that the Ukrainian army withdrew from Avdeyevka, Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine, where the Ukrainian army is in the "three-sided encirclement" of the Russian army.
On the same day, according to a report by the Observer Network, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported to Putin that the Russian army had "fully controlled" the city of Avdeyevka, and Putin congratulated the Russian army on this, saying that "this is a major victory." Even the British BBC and the American CNN admitted that the capture of Avdeyevka was the "biggest victory" of the Russian army since May last year. Since the Russian army has just won a "big victory", why does Medvedev envisage a scenario of "Ukrainian victory" so as to threaten the West, when Moscow will have to use nuclear **? There may be several reasons for this.
First of all, the political significance of the battle for Avdeyevka is much greater than its military significance and will not have a decisive impact on the course of the conflict. The commander of the Ukrainian army in the Avdeyevka region, Tarnavsky, said that militarily speaking, the Russian army "will not gain a strategic advantage" by seizing the region; Chu Yin, an expert on international issues, believes that the Russian army has just seized an artillery position of the Ukrainian army, and it has paid a lot of price, mainly to "add glory" to Putin's election. In a situation where a "big victory" will not be able to completely end the conflict, it is not at all surprising that Medvedev deters the West with a nuclear war.
Secondly, the Russian-Ukrainian war is protracted, and its outcome is indeed related to the "survival" of Russia. According to a report by the Global Times on February 18, Putin said in an interview with his country on the same day that the Russian-Ukrainian war is a major event related to Russia's "survival", and "it may determine the fate of Russia." It is clear that Avdeyevka's victory did not discourage Putin, who knows that the war is far from over, and Medvedev's declaration that if Ukraine wins, Russia will fight a "full-scale nuclear war" with the West, is to highlight Russia's strong determination to "win".
Finally, the victory of the Russian army in Avdeyevka may "wake up" the United States and Europe and stimulate the latter to "fully aid Ukraine", which Moscow does not want to see. For example, just after the Ukrainian army announced the withdrawal of troops from Avdeyevka, Danish Prime Minister Mette Fraseriksen called for "all artillery" to be supplied to Ukraine, she said, "Europe still has ammunition stocks", "we don't need them now", "we should provide them to Ukraine". At the same time, Biden also called on Congress to "urgently pass" a new aid bill to Ukraine to avoid the "defeat of the Ukrainian army".
All in all, although the battle of Avdeyevka did inflict great casualties on the Ukrainian army and hit the morale of the Ukrainian army, it was indeed not a "decisive battle", and Russia still could not "end the war". In this case, how dare Putin or Medvedev "rejoice too early"? On the contrary, they have repeatedly emphasized that the outcome of the conflict will determine the fate of Russia, emphasizing that once Ukraine wins, Russia will fight a nuclear war with the West, that is, they are worried about "waking up" the West and stimulating the United States and Europe to "fully aid Ukraine", so they say that Russia "cannot afford to lose", and losing is a "full-scale nuclear war".
In order to prove that Russia really "has no way out", "has no choice", and "must win", Medvedev said that once Ukraine wins, then Russia must spit out the occupied Ukrainian territory, and this move "contradicts the Russian Constitution", they "have been incorporated into the Russian territory", in order to defend its own territory, Russia can only use nuclear **, and once Russia uses nuclear ** to defend its own territory, "it will never lose the war". It should be said that Medvedev's remarks have a certain degree of confidence, and there is a high probability that he is right, and they are of reference significance for China's "maintenance of reunification."
McFaul, the former US ambassador to Russia, has publicly stated that in terms of nuclear power, "Russia is a global power, but China is not", and in some nuclear fields, Russia is even ahead of the United States, "This is a frightening fact, and many people have not noticed this." Therefore, if Moscow really intends to use nuclear weapons to ensure the final victory of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and Europe are indeed unlikely to "flip the table", and similarly, if China vigorously develops nuclear weapons and uses this to ensure the victory of "military reunification", the possibility of external intervention will be greatly reduced.