Yuan Xin, vice president of the Chinese Population Association and professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University, said in the financial "Insight" column that the long-term decline in birthrate and longevity are the reasons for negative population growth and population aging. But China has the potential to boost fertility. However, it is very difficult to achieve a significant increase in the fertility rate in the short term.
In the context of the negative growth of 850,000 Chinese population in 2022, the population development trend, changing trend and impact on the social economy have become the focus of attention. Yuan Xin, vice president of the Chinese Population Association and professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University, pointed out that the long-term low birthrate and longevity are the main reasons for negative population growth and aging, but China still has the possibility of boosting the fertility rate. However, it is extremely difficult to significantly increase the fertility rate in the short term.
Population development has its own laws, and the rate of decline in the total population will be relatively moderate in the next 30 years, regardless of the fertility rate. But if fertility is not raised, lower fertility will lead to a drastic decline in the total population in the long term. By comparing the future population size at different fertility levels, Yuan emphasized the long-term and complex nature of the problem of population decline.
In the current low-fertility environment, raising fertility requires not only policy and welfare support, but also in-depth research and understanding of the pressures and concerns faced by young families. Factors such as high housing prices, education costs, and career development pressures may all affect young families' willingness to have children. Therefore, society needs to work together to provide more targeted support and solutions.
* Policies can be formulated to encourage young families to have children, such as providing parental leave, reducing tax burdens, and providing more educational resources. At the same time, all sectors of society should also pay attention to and solve the pressure faced by young families, and create a better environment for them to have children.
Tackling the demographic challenge requires the concerted efforts of all of society. **Enterprises, social organizations and individuals should actively participate in this process and jointly promote population development on a healthier and more sustainable track. Only in this way can we ensure that the future of the Chinese population is both dynamic and competitive.
In general, in the face of the trend and challenges of negative population growth, we can neither take it lightly nor be blindly pessimistic. We need to face up to the problem, actively look for solutions, and recognize that this is not just a short-term problem, but an issue that requires long-term attention and efforts. In this process, we should not only pay attention to the changes in fertility rate, but also pay attention to improving the quality of the population and the accumulation of human capital. Only in this way can we ensure that China's population development can adapt to and promote the needs of economic and social development, and lay a solid foundation for future prosperity and progress.
Experts say it will be difficult to significantly increase fertility in the short term