Germany was finally able to avoid a recession by revising the data for the third quarter of last year.
But the UK did not use this trick, so after the release of economic data for the fourth quarter of last year, the UK was confirmed to be in a recession.
According to data released by the Office for National Statistics and relevant survey data cited by France**, the UK economy has fallen into a recession since the second half of 2023.
According to the Office for National Statistics, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the UK's GDP contracted by 03%。
And in July-September of the same year, the UK's GDP also appeared 01% atrophy. Therefore, it can be concluded that the UK economy will begin to enter a recession in the second half of 2023.
Originally, the situation in Germany was a bit similar, and it was already in ** in the third quarter of last year, but not long ago, when it was announced that the GDP value for the third quarter would be revised to zero growth, when the fourth quarter was announced, the GDP value was revised to zero.
Through this operation, Germany finally avoided two consecutive quarters of **, and thus avoided a technical recession.
Although there is no clear official definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of negative growth or contraction are widely considered to be a sign of a technical recession.
According to the data, consumer spending, the main driver of the UK economy, fell by 1% in the second half of 2023, and retail spending continued to be subdued under the influence of the prolonged cost-of-living crisis.
In order to control inflation, the Bank of England has raised interest rates several times, and although the level of inflation has decreased, it is still above its inflation target. The latest inflation data in the UK is the CPI in December last year, when the year-on-year growth rate reached 4%, and the month-on-month growth reached 04%。
At present, the UK has paused to continue raising interest rates, but it has not yet started to cut interest rates, and it is clear that it is still watching the specific actions of the Fed.
According to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, high inflation remains the biggest obstacle to economic growth, so the Bank of England must keep interest rates stable to curb economic growth.
In addition, there is a serious lack of business investment and public demand in the UK, resulting in sluggish economic growth. The UK's PMI remained in contraction in January, with the manufacturing index at just 473。
In addition, the quarter-on-quarter decline in retail sales, which reflects people's demand, also reached 09%。
Pessimism about the UK economy has been reflected in financial markets. Since entering 2024, the UK ***175%, a comparison shows that the difference is very large, because during this period France in Europe has been **265%, Germany also ** 176%, and Italy's increase reached 442%。
At the same time, the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar has been **1 this year2%。
However, the UK economy seems to have changed. It is believed that economic growth will strengthen, wages will grow faster than prices, mortgage rates will fall, and unemployment will remain low.
However, what is strange is that the data released by the U.S. Treasury Department in January this year shows that the UK is ** U.S. bonds, and the U.K. has repeatedly vacillated in its attitude towards U.S. bonds, and interest rates have closely followed the Federal Reserve, which is very detrimental to the British economy out of the quagmire.